Sunday, 19 July 2009

Fe Fi Fo Fum Labour Feel the Breath of the Lib Dems Now

The latest opinions polls do not make good reading for Labour. The one in the Independent on Sunday in particular with the Conservatives on 38%, Labour 23% and the Lib Dems just behind them on 22%. So the Lib Dems are right behind Labour on share of the vote.

However, while the share may have us equal the seat share shows the ridiculous nature of our electoral system. According to Electoral Calculus returns for that vote share 358 Conservatives, 198 Labour and 68 Lib Dems. One percentage point should not equate to 130 MPs and almost three times as many. That clearly shows how Lib Dem votes are not fairly accounted for in the current First Past the Post Voting System.

Just as a little experiment I decided to keep the Tories in 38% an swap share from Labour to the Lib Dems find out the level of parity. The result is that it only happens at Lib Dems 28% (120 seats) Labour 17% (118) a full 12% swing still required to get parity in seats from being right behind Labour in share of vote. It would apparently give the Tories a 108 seat majority but with the vote shares reversed the Tories would have a 14 seat majority Con 332, Lab 242, Lib Dem 45.

Is it any wonder that have to work so much harder to get any vote than the other parties seem to have too. It's because that vote on the national scale is not quite the same value.

On a plus side for us North of the Border Electoral Calculus on the current figures gives Edinburgh South, Edinburgh North and Leith, Aberdeen South and Glasgow North to the Lib Dems. The Tories will on these figures make gains in Scotland just don't believe them south of the Meadows.

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