Cycle of Brexit: Endangering the Norwegian Model

So it appears that rather that following the Norwegian model of living with the EU Theresa May's vision for what Brexit means looks like it is endangering it.

Norwegian officials have warned Brussels that they are watching negotiations over Brexit closely. If a special deal is reached with the UK this will lead to Norway looking at renegotiating the terms under which it operates with the EU. The fact that May's government wants out of the Customs Union and out of the Single Market while still maintaining favourable conditions of trade and access with the EU is not looking good for countries like Norway who have reached an agreement with the EU and remain outside.

At a time when countries like Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are also looking to enter the Customs Union the stance that the UK is taking means we are no longer having to appease just 27 other counties. There are also the additional 4 countries in the European Free Trade Association1, the 6 with Stabilisation and Association Agreements2, the 3 in the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area3 as well as the 4 with bi-lateral Customs Union arrangements4. In other words all of Europe until you get to Belarus and Russia.

Now you have to consider that some of the EU nations who border or surround some of those countries affected do more trade with them than the UK. When it comes to consideration of the remaining 27 EU nations all accepting the Brexit deal. The threat of Norway and potentially the others looking to also renegotiate their deal with the EU means that the chances of the special deal that May, David Davis and Boris Johnson say they can get looks less and less likely to happen. The EU cannot afford to give special terms to one nation who pulls out of the EU if it impacts on the deal they have with 17 other nations that the EU also has deals in place with. Effectively Britain is up against 44 not just 27 other nations when we sit at the negotiating table.

If the other 17 are paying something to the EU to benefit from their deals to help them trade with the EU and the UK refuse to pay anything we can expect to get nothing. Seventeen countries willing to pay for special access to the EU is going to be more beneficial than allowing one country to have access who is paying nothing. The Brexiteers have been playing high stakes poker with a bluff in their hand. It is the smaller stacks at the table from the associated nations who the EU will be gauging now that the UK has gone all in. That revenue flow is important to them, they may yet call on our all or nothing bet.

If the UK scrambles away from the EU with nothing David Davis hasn't run the impact reports, but Scotland has. Is it worth it?


Footnote

1 Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein
2 Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Kosovo
3  Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine
4 Turkey, Andorra, Monaco and San Marino

Tanker og bønner for Norge - Thoughts and Prayers for Norway

Jeg beklager for mine norske dette har vært oversatt via Google translate. Men på denne vanskelige tiden føler jeg at jeg trenger å snakke med venner i Norge og andre i deres eget språk, så vel som å la mine engelsktalende lesere kjenner mine tanker.

I apologise for my Norwegian this has been translated through Google translate. But at this difficult time I feel I need to speak to friends in Norway and others in their own language, as well as letting my English speaking readers know my thoughts.

Jeg prøver å forstå hva som har foregått i Norge i går. En bilbombe jeg kan forstå, jeg er fra Nord-Irland, er skyting døde på 80 unge mennesker på et politisk camp noe jeg prøver å få hodet mitt rundt: selv om jeg sannsynligvis aldri vil, og sannsynligvis ikke kan komme nær forståelse.

I'm trying to comprehend what has gone on in Norway yesterday. A car bomb I can comprehend, I am from Northern Ireland, the shooting dead of 80 young people at a political camp is something I am trying to get my head around: though I probably never will, and probably cannot get close to understanding

 Den eneste måten jeg kan selv forsøke å tenke på virkningen er å tenke på alle de politisk aktive medlemmer dersom Liberal Youth jeg vet og tenker at kanskje så mye som én av fire av dem ble utryddet i en forferdelig ettermiddag på Aktiver. Men selv det er noe som er vanskelig å ta i.

The only way I can even attempt to think of the impact is to think of all the politically active members if Liberal Youth I know and thinking that maybe as much as one in four of them were wiped out in one horrendous afternoon at Activate. But even that is something that is hard to take in. 

Eller kanskje en av sommerens kampanjene jeg har vært på, tenker at et stort antall mennesker på disse lagene var å nyte en ettermiddag i solen og deretter en stor andel av dem blir plutselig visket ut.

 Or maybe one of the summer campaigns I have been on, thinking that a large number of the people on those teams were enjoying an afternoon in the sun and then a large proportion of them being suddenly wiped out.

Jeg skriver dette som jeg lytter til den norske statsminister Jens Stoltenberg gi en andre pressekonferanse denne morgenen er opprivende. Han sier at noen av de nær ham var ofre i bombingen, og at noen av ungdommene på øya var også kjent for ham. Han kan ikke gi ut flere detaljer i øyeblikket, ingen tvil om familiemedlemmer er fortsatt alle til å bli fortalt, så vel som politiet har å gjøre med situasjonen.

 I'm typing this as I listen to the Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg giving a second press conference this morning is harrowing. He says that some of those close to him were victims in the bombing, and that some of the young people on the island were also known to him. He cannot give out more details at the moment, no doubt as family members are still all to be told as well as the police are dealing with the situation.

I går var den mørkeste dagen i norsk historie siden andre verdenskrig. Folket i Storbritannia stod hos dem nå, og ingen tvil om vi vil igjen i dag.

Yesterday was the darkest day in Norwegian history since the Second World War. The people of the UK stood by them now and no doubt we will again today.


Mine tanker og bønner er med alle i Norge på denne tiden. De som har mistet kjære. Men også alle som ikke kan tro dette har skjedd i deres fredelige land.

 My thoughts and prayers are with all in Norway at this time. Those who have lost dear ones. But also everyone who cannot believe this has happened in their peaceful country.

De unge håpet på og jobbe for en lysere fremtid. Alle i verden bør ta opp fakkelen og sikre at vi oppnår at i minnet deres.

Those young people were hoping for and working for a brighter future. Everyone in the world should take up their torch and ensure that we acheive that in their memory. 

Edvald will wear the flag of Norway tomorrow with respect #tdf

Edvald Boassen Hagen

The Norwegians have had a good Tour de France between them their two riders have one four times as many stages as the French and equal the number of the Isle of Man.

Their fans have been vocal and visual on every stage of the Tour, flying the Norweigian flag on the plains, in the Mountains, in the towns.

Both their riders are supposedly sprinters yet both Thor Hushovd and Edvald Boassen Hagen have won in the mountains. Hushovd in the high mountains on the road to Pau and again on the run in to Gap, Boassen Hagen on the first day of the Alps into Pinerolo. Boassen Hagen also won on the flat on the way into Lisieux.

Thor "God of Thunder" Hushovd

However, they plus all of the Norwegian fans will be hearing of the sad news back home in Norway. People all across the World have been updating their avatars on Facebook and Twitter with the flag of Norway.

Tomorrow being a time trial stage in the Tour means there will be no group start where a ceremonial commemoration of the dead in Norway could take part. Yet these two Norwegians will do their bit. Young Edvald will don the flag in the form of the jersey as the national time trial champion. Thor will not be wearing the rainbow rings of world champion again until Sunday as he is Road Race Champion of the World, a jersey he won in the national colours as pictured.

I'd like the organisers to give him dispensation to wear it tomorrow to show the World cares for Norway, let's have two world jerseys in the start hut.

My thoughts and prayers go to every Norwegian whether back home or following the Tour or anywhere else in the world. Especially any of those who have lost a loved one or friend.

Hands Off Our Forsests

You would have thought that a party claiming to speak for the nationalist movement of a nation would understand the mindset of that nation. Not so the SNP when it comes to the nations forests.

Almost three quarters of the respondents to the Scottish Government consultation on the leasing of a quarter of Scotland's forest were opposed to the proposal. In fact while 71% were against only 12% were in support of the SNPs plan. Is this just the latest sign of how out of touch the SNP are with reality and the concerns of its citizens?

Well as Hamish MacDonell wrote in the Steamie yesterday it is not just limited to Scotland that the SNP have lost grasp of reality. Jim Mather the enterprise Minister is still clinging to the Arc or prosperity.

So that would be:

• Ireland where the government support for the banking sector is currently 220% of GDP, it could get worse as the Banks' coverage of loans is still 5 times that amount.
• Iceland whose banking sector almost brought the prospect of the nation going bankrupt into being.
• Norway who like Scotland have oil. With a 7% drop in the price recently that is hardly going to be a stable economic structure.
• Of course Scotland's own two one point five one point two five* Banks are also the pinicles of prosperity.

So the Arc is sinking something that never affected Noah and clearly dodesn't worry Mather either. Man the lifeboats and lets hope there is a helicopter ready to rescue us like the oilworkers before we sink to fast under Nats pilotage of our economy.

*Really depends how much of HBOS you consider Scottish after the second merger.

Norway Beat Us to South Pole Again: Gratulerer

Gratulerer!*

In 1912 Norwegian Roald Amundsen's team beat the plucky Brits lead by Captain Robert Scott to be the first to the South Pole.

This year saw the inaugural Amundsen polar race and as 97 years ago it was Norway first but Britain second. Our team of James Cracknell, Ben Fogle and Dr Ed Coats even put in a final 27 non-stop hours on their skies but were still 20 hours behind the Norwegian team of Rune Malterud and Stian Aker. The winners reached the pole in just 17 days and 11 hours when the Brits were 31.8 miles (51km) away.

Unlike that first time when the gap was 35 days and the gap to other nationalities in getting to the pole even greater others, including South Africans and Irish, are still competing behind the polar pioneering nations.

*Trans from Norwegian: Congratulations.

Norway No Way for Scotland - Norway

The last unhindered bastion of Alex Salmond's arc of prosperity turned around and bite him yesterday. With the Emerald Tiger of Ireland stalled and Iceland floundering Jonas Gahr Støre, Norway's foreign minister, has said there are major differences between Norway and Scotland and the comparisons and plans made by Alex Salmond based on Norway's achievements do not add up.

For starters the oil fund that Salmond is so keen to replicate and use in so many ways in Norway is the pension fund. Its monies are "for our children and grandchildren" with very little available for current spending to the exchequer.

Also unlike in Scotland, "We [Norway] don't consume any of our gas, we export almost all of our production." The situation is reversed for the North Sea gas in the UK and Scotland, most of it is used domestically.

He also said there were major differences historically in how Norway and the UK were geared up to use the resources discovered in the North Sea in the 70s:

"Our social sector and structural system were ready for the big changes. We
started with major investments in oil and gas in the early 1970s and it was only
in the late 1990s that we went into surplus."

Finally the often almost robotic call of cybernats when challenged regarding Iceland or Norway has been the fact that both of these have escaped the vagrancies of various forms of some sort of greater Scandinavia through the centuries. Mr Støre however also said that he would be "upset" if he thought that his country were being used as a "source of division or strife in other countries".