Brown Outlook for Wenceslas

Inspired by Morten Morland's Cartoon in today's Times see above.

PM Gordon Brown looked out
On the feast of Stephen
But debt still lay round about
Deep and harsh unbeaten
Grimmly shone G. Brown that night
For the cuts were cruel
When his chanc'lor came in sight
Failing to lift the mood

"Hither, Darling stand by me
If thou know'st it, telling
Yonder voter, who is he?
And what his voting intention?"
"Sire, he votes across the fence
No party can count on.
Last time he felt Iraq make sense
Now he's not so certain."

"Raise the VAT with Auld Lang Syne
He'll be too drunk to bother
Thou and I will see him whine
But not let finance whither."
Darling's budget forth it went
Forth it went together
Through economy's wild lament
And the bitter voter

"Sire, the mood is darker now
The voters' mood is stranger
Fails my heart, I know not how,
We can go no longer."
"Read the polling, my good page
Cam'ron's doing badly
Losing the odd percentage
Tory lead less widely."

In his master's steps he trod
With glasses rose tinted
Everyone else thought it odd
After what the pre-budget hinted
Therefore, socialist men, be sure
Wealth or rank possessing
Ye who now will fleece the poor
On election day be stressing

The Liberal Moment

"Nick Clegg’s suggesting that his party can lead the Left seems presumptuous. Yet his is right to make it and has made it in the right way."

So says the lead editorial comment in this morning’s Times. It comes on the day that Nick launches his pamphlet The Liberal Moment with Demos as well as writing an article in the Times outlying his themes.

It opens with the questions:

"Are you one of the millions who turned to new Labour in 1997? Were you excited by the progressive promise? Did you believe that the ideals of fairness, social mobility, sustainability, civil rights and internationalism would finally have their day?"

Going on to say then:

"If so, you face a real dilemma. The choice between a fading exhausted Labour Government and the ideologically barred Conservatives."

The pamphlet and the article both look at the shifting sands of progressive politics. It was about a century ago that the Liberal party started to lose that all out progressive nature of British politics. The outcome was the emergence of the current Labour vs. Conservative struggle in the intervening years. Nick acknowledges that our predecessors then deserved to lose but then looks at the current situation.

The progressive party of the last 100 years, because no matter what the Tories try to paint over their past , progressive and conservative do not sit side by side in the same phrase, have been Labour. Yet look at them now.

"Labour's basic reflexes — central state activism, hoarding power at the centre, top-down government — are the wrong tools to meet the challenges of the modern world. We live in a society where people are no longer rigidly defined by class or place, no longer trapped by a culture of hierarchy….

"Labour have never fully reconciled itself to how power now flows down to individuals and communities that no longer accept a relationship of obeisance to central government. From frenzied target-setting in public service to the demolition of civil liberties, Labour has misread the demand for individual and grassroots empowerment in contemporary Britain."

Just as in the later part of the 19th and early 20th century the ideology battles for progressivism were battles being fought by Labour, long before they won the political battle, so now Nick thinks the battle to be the progressive party in thinking is ours. The battles on thinking are being won on the economy, environment, civil liberties, Iraq, Ghurkhas, and other issues we led the ideological crusade and others are latching on. The war to become the progressive force in politics in the country may take longer, but its day too may be coming.

Nick says:

"So the real choice at the next election is not the old red-blue/ blue-red pendulum of British politics. It is between yellow and blue. A choice between a liberal movement — led by the Liberal Democrats — that is attracting disaffected progressive voters from a Labour Party which will take years to recover, if at all; and a Conservative Party that parrots the language of change to maintain the status quo. In short, an opportunity for progressives to do something different, and finally change things for good."

So with that message ringing in my ears and Nicks vision set out before me, I'm really excited about heading off to Bournemouth for conference. Maybe the old adage is true. Maybe life truly does begin at 101000*.

*As Mark so kindly suggested this blog is now looking at using binary in light of my Total Politics rankings.

Dunfermline Building Society: Need for Action

Last week Willie Rennie MP blogged about the disproportionate charge that a mutual building society such as the Dunfermline Building Society were facing as a result of the fall out over Northern Rock. The fact that Dunfermline have not shifted from their key business as a savings and loan mutual means that their current difficulties shows the systemic failure of the Government to act responsibly in this current economic crisis.

As Willie pointed out the government was treated everyone the same both high risk banks with heavy investment portfolio and low risk mutuals providing customers a safe mortgage system. The Building Society looks poised to post loses of a mere £26 million, mere that is in comparison to RBS, HBoS, Lloyds-TSB and Northern Rock all of which the government was quick to jump to the defence of and shore up their risky portfolios.

Willie is calling on the government to take action:

"I want to explore every avenue possible in order to secure the future for Dunfermline. We cannot let 150 years of heritage be swept way under Labour's first recession. The business can be a strong concern in the future, but it is incumbent on politicians to help ensure its future."

Tavish Scott also added:

"This is a clear case for government intervention to ensure we do not lose a solid part of Scotland's financial infrastructure.

"I would be very worried if ministers were not already fully involved in seeing what influence they can bring to bear to retain the Dunfermline's independence. If they are not already involved, then they certainly should be."

Then Alex Salmond after pointing out (surprise, surprise) that financial regulation was reserved to Westminster, which restricted the Scottish Government's ability to act said:

"Dunfermline Building Society is a very significant player indeed in relation to the provision of social housing.

"Certainly, we would want the Dunfermline Building Society to remain as an
independent financial institution. There would be general support for that right across Scotland and we certainly stand ready to do anything that we can do in order to assist with that."

How about getting to Westminster Alex, where I believe you still have a seat, and seeing what you can do? Something you have singularly failed to do in the past.

Power for a Purpose

It's not all negative, Tavish Scott tells it as it is, Lib Dem proposes are about tacking the tough issues facing us all. More power to enable Scotland to face difficult financial times.

The latest from Tavish TV.

Pay Packet Apartheid

There were moans from public sector employees last year when the government demanded that they accept below inflation pay rises. However, as they nogotiated long term deals over 3 years in some sectors at below the then rate of inflation. These were still between 2% and 3% per annum so we now find that the public sector, with their greater job security, have also gained an advantage in salary over those in the private sector.



With the retail price index measuring inflation at 0.1% for January and trending to dip in negative figures and deflation when last months figures are announced later this month private sector employees are finding their salaries frozen. Some are even finding they have to take a 20% cut and a four day week as their companies try and economis through the recession. Not the case with some of the public sector employees whose Unions tend to seal them into longer term deals but even look for wiggle room on an annual basis.

I intimated earlier it was bad enough that a company that the Government had a 68% share in who had a £177,777 loss per employee*. Now we have the Government who insisted in prudent pay increases for the employees over whom they had some control finding that the long term deals are far outstretching those that many private sector employees can expect.

*That is based on the loss divided by the number of employees as reported in 2007.

When Gesture Politics Fail

Lord Myners appears to have hit the wrong end of things when calling on Sir Fred Goodwin to make a gesture of giving up part of his pension. The former head of the Royal Bank of Scotland wrote back to the Treasury minister once it became clear to his surprise that his pension plans had been leaked to the BBC's Robert Preston.

He wrote back (letters available at The Times) saying he had no objection to his response being made public, before as the Times tell us he made it available himself. The outcome is that he sees that gestures he has already taken, refusing his notice period salary and share options, was already an ministerially approved gesture. Going back to October not the last couple of days as the Prime Minister seems to want to have us believe. Goodwin was in discussions with Myners "at the time".

It is a marvel that the as Myners claims the UK Financial Investments (UKFI) only found out about the discretionary choice of the RBS Board over Goodwin's pension last week. You'd have expected someone to be going over with a fine tooth comb details that had been discussed with Ministers over the past months. Especially in light of discussions over the previous chairman's pension arrangement before assenting to any agreement over what was appropriate.

Having been a former civil servant I'm sure that someone somewhere had enough wit to think outside the box and think about looking into it. I'm sure it also was flagged up on some bit of correspondence that was flying around the Treasury in October or whenever the UKFI first took a stake in RBS. These sorts of minutiae are never totally overlooked, especially when they are no so much minutiae. What I suspect did happen in the last week is that with the whole bonus brouhaha somebody remembered some memo about Goodwin's pension, that had been filed away. As the public outcry rose it bugged them so that one morning they came into the office and asked one of the Administrative Assistant to dig out some files. Then after a bit of reading, ignoring things that had been planned, the memo or margin note or position paper was found and an almighty panic ensued.

But the damage had been done, the Minister had given assurances and was now left trying to back pedal facing further public relations disasters.

Hands Off Our Forsests

You would have thought that a party claiming to speak for the nationalist movement of a nation would understand the mindset of that nation. Not so the SNP when it comes to the nations forests.

Almost three quarters of the respondents to the Scottish Government consultation on the leasing of a quarter of Scotland's forest were opposed to the proposal. In fact while 71% were against only 12% were in support of the SNPs plan. Is this just the latest sign of how out of touch the SNP are with reality and the concerns of its citizens?

Well as Hamish MacDonell wrote in the Steamie yesterday it is not just limited to Scotland that the SNP have lost grasp of reality. Jim Mather the enterprise Minister is still clinging to the Arc or prosperity.

So that would be:

• Ireland where the government support for the banking sector is currently 220% of GDP, it could get worse as the Banks' coverage of loans is still 5 times that amount.
• Iceland whose banking sector almost brought the prospect of the nation going bankrupt into being.
• Norway who like Scotland have oil. With a 7% drop in the price recently that is hardly going to be a stable economic structure.
• Of course Scotland's own two one point five one point two five* Banks are also the pinicles of prosperity.

So the Arc is sinking something that never affected Noah and clearly dodesn't worry Mather either. Man the lifeboats and lets hope there is a helicopter ready to rescue us like the oilworkers before we sink to fast under Nats pilotage of our economy.

*Really depends how much of HBOS you consider Scottish after the second merger.