Friday, 7 November 2008

Delusional Nats, Labour and the Press

How did they all get it so wrong?

I just have to say how come the SNP or Labour observing the same box openings as us could have been so wide off the mark. Many of the Nats either in the Blogosphere or on the street were confident of the result going their way. But to be so far out what went wrong.

The SNP were still adamant that they had it and Labour were less certain. If what I've heard is correct Newsnight at one point called last nights result for the Nats. Various of the bloggers and the MSM blogs picked up on this vibe even citing Brian Taylor. However, it wasn't what I or my fellow Lib Dems were seeing.

Maybe it had something to do with the over complications of their tally sheets. Mike Russell at 10:45 that he was "cautiously optimistic", Labour shortly after were saying "It's too close to call. We haven't had the bundles yet." However, by this time I didn't recorded the Nats ahead in any box that I was looking at nor did my nearest colleagues. Indeed as the initial surge of activity ended not one of us could recall any major SNP dominance. Yet the Nats were still adamantly proclaiming "Yes we can", yes we have and yes we will in the media section that was over my shoulder. More strangely the press and Labour were also believing them.

Yet the big two with all their canvass work and the press got it dramatically wrong 6,737 votes wrong approximately 19% wrong. I'll happily put my trust in the Lib Dem predictors and reading of events on the ground thank you very much. Much less hype, much more accurate. Even if it does mean you enter the last few days trying to get enough vote out to save a deposit that is lost, rather that heading for the tape as elsewhere in Fife.


  1. Sorry, what happened to your deposit?

  2. I reckon the main reason was that most voters were undecideds misread as SNP supporters, and they were clawed back by Labour thanks to a Brown Bounce in part, and an effective single issue campaign supported by photocall campaigning. Add into that the attack on the incumbent SNP administration (Holyrood and council) that they failed to rebut convincingly. SNP should have fought on HBOS and expected job losses.

    Trend is still against Labour - the lack of grassroots activists in Fife was mitigated by the photocall campaign but this cannot be sustained UK-wide in a general election.

    Any idea why the Lib Dems were so unpopular? I'm genuinely surprised, given Willie Rennie in Dunfermline, although the voter demographics are markedly different there.

    ps. my word verification is "punter" meaning "one who gets things wrong"