Edinburgh South Labour Excuses Starting Already

In 2005 there were a mere 405 votes between Nigel Griffiths and the Liberal Democrats in 2005. Labour had already lost the Scottish seat that takes up most of the Westminster constituency to Mike Pringle, he went on to increase his majority in 2007. Therefore these quotes from local Labour party members in Edinburgh South make interesting reading:

One Labour Party insider said: "This decision is just typical of Nigel. That is why he will leave no legacy in South Edinburgh. He has put the party in a very difficult position by making his entire campaign centre on his personality. He was a policy-free zone. If we lose Edinburgh South, everyone will know who to blame: Nigel Griffiths."

Another local member added: "He has obviously been working on this for some time, and has now dumped the local party in it before an election."

It appears as if Labour are already preparing the way for an inevitable loss of the seat. They are already apportioning blame. The picture above is a larger that life picture of the MP that adorns his constituency office. Hardly surprising with such iconography that it's corner position is known by some locals as the Kremlin.

So with Nigel out of the picture all eyes are turning to who? I think the only logical answer is Fred Mackintosh for the Liberal Democrats.

The Tories of course are yet again talking up their chances in this seat. But they did the same in 2005 and threw everything including the kitchen sink at this seat and came a lowly third. In 2007 even with the man who eventually became their list MSP who had stood in 2005 their vote on top of what they called strong performances by David Cameron and local activity only rose by 0.6% the Lib Dem vote rose by 2.9%.

I love the fact that Gavin Brown's website from 2007 is still live.

Instead of using bar charts that show data the Tories tried to use actual figures based on electoral calculus figures of a universal swing to count for Edinburgh South. Back then they said (actual return in May 2007 in red):

Share of the vote

Labour - 28.98% 29.1%

Conservatives - 26.14% 17.2%

Lib Dems - 21.39% 35.0%

SNP - Not worthy of mention 18.8%

Oops that appears a big ask for the Tories, especially when you consider that this Lib Dem vote in the smaller Scottish constituency is actually over 1000 more than Gavin himself managed in the last General election. Even the additional 5,000 or so votes that the Tories brought to the table leaves them over 1,000 short without counting in the fact that Lib Dem voters also vote in the additional parts of the constituency in their thousands. It's hardly a surprise then that Iain Dale in his seat by seat study didn't think his party would take South.

Therefore the Labour insiders quoted above are clearly preparing themselves for a Fred Mackintosh win on May 6th. It's not all down to Nigel being a policy free zone, it is also because Fred has been to parts of the constituency that haven't seen a Tory candidate on their doorsteps in recent times, if at all. The Tories as in 2005 think they can rely on their heartland parts to the West of the constituency leaving out some of the tougher areas.

Fred doesn't take the people of Edinburgh South for granted, nor does he neglect them. Indeed many of the people in locations overlooked by the Tories still remember how the Conservatives ruined Scotland and didn't care. So Annabel Goldie's recent comments about how David Cameron and reign in Downing Street without Scotland will just bring back echoes of that.

Nigel may well have dumped the local Labour party in it, although it would appear that the local people were already making their mind up that Nigel would have to go. He lost 6% of his vote in 2005 and that was before the additional scandals of the last few years.

So even Labour in Edinburgh South are looking towards a Fred Mackintosh win there by the sounds of things, lining up their excuses already.

DUP MLAs split 60/40 Over Justice Proposal

The DUP apparently last night were split 60/40 over the deal regarding justice that would probably have seen an end to the long negotiations that have been going on at Hillsborough Castle.

Sammy Wilson was unusually tight lipped about events (especially when compared to some of his utterances earlier in proceedings over the last 10 days):

"You have within any organisation your internal discussions (and) when you reach conclusions which impact on the public, then you go out and you give the outcome of those conclusions and that's what we did yesterday."

It would be interesting to speculate who is on which side of that internal party divide. I can think of a few names I'd expect to see firmly in one camp or the other but don't know enough about all of them to gauge the rest.

As it it the expectation is that talks will carry on for the rest of this week. So much for Brown giving them 48 hours before him imposed anything on them last Thursday.

UPDATE: Nigel Dodds has been somewhat more forthcoming not denying that 14 MLAs voted against the decision on the table last night. But saying that "first class unionist leader" who enjoyed "full support" of the party. He also said that those against had not threatened to resign, presonally I'm not too sure that last bit is the truth there is too much history of threatening to take the ball away especially from the DUP and some of it members (especially some who are former UUP elected representatives).

Are Labour Parliamentarians Like Rats?

They say if you want to know the fate of a ship keep an eye on the rats. They'll be the first to desert a sinking ship.

Well about a quarter of Labour's Scottish MPs have now decided that enough is enough and they are getting out.

• Rosemary McKenna Cumbernauld and Kilsyth (turning 69 in May announced retirement some time ago)
• Mohammed Sarwar Glasgow Central (only 57 first elected in 1997 announced he would step down in 2007)
• Gavin Strang Edinburgh East (also late sixties flip-flopped twice on retirement before settling on the option after 40 years as MP)
• Adam Ingram East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (turned 63 yesterday announced retirement last March)
• John Reid Airdrie and Shotts
• Jim Devine Livingston (forced to step down)
• Des Browne Kilmarnock and Loudoun (announced retirement in November)
• Anne Moffat East Lothian (Deselected in November by local party in hands of NEC)
• John McFall West Dumbartonshire (announced retirement at 65 last week)
• Nigel Griffiths Edinburgh South (heading into education job rather than defend his 405 vote majority)

So what does that mean about the good ship Labour and Captain Brown, it sounds like Titanic proportions as he Darling and Murphy play on as the happy band. There are a couple of Select Committee Chairs and quite a wealth of ministerial experience in some of those. Not to mention Griffiths one of Gordon's closest friends. But look at the speculation and actual names of some of those that are seeking to replace them.

Cathie Jamieson has already been selected to replace Browne, but there is speculation that former leader of the Labour MSPs Wendy Alexander is going to seek to stand in John McFall's seat and Sandra Boyack MSP for Edinburgh Central is being rumoured to be after Edinburgh South's selection. The latter two make interesting reading as under boundary changes their Scottish Parliament seats are not as safe 12 months after the Westminster election as they were in 2007. This could be seen as an attempt to take flight before they lose at the ballot or have to look for a safer Holyrood option.

So as well as having lost a quarter of his Scottish MPs voluntarily and most likely some more at the hands of electors, there could also be the case of three high profile female MSPs having sought a dual mandate either having to serve both for a year, call a Holyrood by-election or return to Holyrood defeated. There really is a shuffling of the decks going on which indicates that the bravado and confidence that they are giving to the electorate may only be a mask.

It must be worrying times in Scottish Labour so maybe it was no wonder that they rejoiced in getting a defection from a first term councillor even if there are allegations that all is not that good in his record thus far.

The Oxymoron of Natural Law

So the Pope is saying that the equality bill defies 'natural law' that may be his belief but it is also an oxymoron.

Natural law, think about it, what does that mean? Look at the book of Genesis to see what natural law actually means in the bible. There is lying, fratricide, stealing, cheating on wives etc. it gets so bad that at one point God wipes out mankind bar one man, his three sons and their wives in a flood.

You see natural law in the bible teaches that "all have sinned and fall short of the glory of God" now that may be something that the Pope has forgotten. Being elevated to the level of the 'infallible' while still a mortal may do that to someone. You see there is no thing as natural law, even the church teaches natural lawlessness, if it didn't it would be out of business. So that attack stems from an oxymoron.

Somehow this country can ban religious extremists from entering this country if they want to, but the Pope is unique in that he also is a Head of State, therefore he get lavished with a £20m of taxpayers money to come and visit his flock. He can hold views that are contrary to the law of the land and expunge them from a platform in front of thousands and yet we the taxpayer will be helping to pay for him.

He claims to have the same God that I do. One that says that I am fearfully and wonderfully made. One who accepts me for who I am, yes all of me. There is no oxymoron in the fact that Christians are sinners saved by grace only in the fact that the Church can try and defy nature by placing laws on it which do not exist.

UPDATE: There now is a Downing Street Petition calling on the Government to distance itself from the Pope's comments.

Edinburgh South Labour Looking for Candidate as Livingston Announce Theirs

On the day that Edinburgh South Labour Party start the hunt for their candidate for a candidate to replace Nigel Griffiths MP, Livingston have announced that Graeme Morrice will be their third candidate in three consecutive Westminster Elections in 5 years. The former council leader will step up to the plate to replace the disgraced Jim Devine who was deselected before the party's 'star committee' over his expenses. He beat fellow councillor John McGinty, community education officer Gordon Connolly and Haackney activist Adenike Abimbola-Akindele to the selection. I don't rule out seeing the latter appear on the Edinburgh South shortlist, it would only be the sixth that I know of.

Meanwhile trade unionist Michael McCann has been unveiled as the Labour candidate in East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow, after former defence minister Adam Ingram (whose career had a rather big part in last nights Channel 4 Drama Mo).

Standing Down and Defection

First up the rumours that Edinburgh South MP Nigel Griffiths was going to step down have been confirmed. In what was the Lib Dems number 4 target seat across the UK and top against Labour the former deputy leader of the house was defending a 405 vote majority. Unlike John McFall who announced his retirement at 65, Nigel at 54 is announcing his next career as a director of an education institution.

However, even before his sex scandal on Remembrance Sunday in the House or the expenses claims Labour's popularity in the area was declining. That was evidenced when the former leader of the council Donald Anderson stood in the Holyrood seat in 2007 to try and reclaim it from Mike Pringle only to see a swing from Labour the Lib Dems as Mike increased his majority. I don't see how anyone this close to an election can eat into the growing popularity of the Liberal Democrat candidate Fred Mackintosh, which may have also been a reason for Nigel jumping before the electorate pushed him.

Last night Yousuf hinted that there would be a SNP defection to Labour. It led to both Jeff and Will speculating that is was only a councillor and as Jeff said that maybe someone that 'the SNP would be better off without'.

Well it appears that everyone is right, South Lanarkshire councillor John McNamee who the Herald describe as a rising star of the party is the defectee. He cites the dropping of GARL (Glasgow Airport Rail Link) and the inadequacies of the SNP at town hall levels. Though the local party are investigating him after "concerns were expressed over his expense claims and use of council travel allowances" as well as his "inappropriate behaviour" at a Strathclyde Fire Board event before Christmas.

Sounds to me like he is the ideal substitute for Nigel Griffiths, in that case. Hardly one for Yousuf to have been so joyful about.

Although with 5 retirements in the last five days is there a sign outside the Labour whips' office saying retirees queue here?

Year of the (maybe not so) Nearly Blog - Month Echo

Slight chance on the title this month because I have actually made a couple of lists.

First up In the Scottish Round Up Top Politicians' Blogs for Parliamentarians, Councillors or aspirant PPCs I come in at number three, plus second in the Lib Dem category. Also I'm in at number 5 on the Scottish Politico Twitterers. I did however also fill the Stephen Glenn position (number on list +1) in the top 20 Lib Dem Twitterers by followers, so maybe only maybe.

Compliment of the month comes from Iain Roberts in the LDV Daily view upon the news of me making a list "Recognise his genius, damn you!".

To the shock of several including Caron despite my productive and interactive December my Wikio Political ranking dropped from 45 to 50 the same number of places as she herself did in a tough month. What Wikio brings later this week is going to be interesting.

Last month I had 3,753 absolute unique visitors up from 2,667 in December up 43.2%. They made 5,419 (3,874) visits +39.9% and 6,798 (4,627) page views +46.9%. All of which are new records for this blog. My busiest day was the 22nd January when I picked up on Fife Council taking Kerry Robertson's baby from her in Ireland.

But that's enough of the procrastinating on with what you're all waiting for my top 11s* for January.

Top referring sites were:

1. (2) Google Organic
2. (3) Direct Hits
3. (4) Lib Dem Blogs
4. (1) Iain Dale
5. (5) SNP Tactical Voting
6. (6) Lib Dem Voice
7. (7) Twitter
8. (-) Britblogs
9. (-) Facebook
10. (8) Blogger
11. = (9) Google Referral
11. = (-) Norfolk Blogger


I only wrote 153 new contributions to the blog up from the 102 last month (when that was the record) so I was shocked last month, but gulping at this. The 11 stories that you've been reading most (by direct page views) are:

1. Fife Council Child Snatchers
2. Chinese Deathly Whispers (making a surprising high return)
3. *** Exclusive *** Mrs Robinson's Toyboy
4. Shortlist for Livingston Labour Candidate
5. Spotlight Robison Expose via YouTube
6. The End of Time or a New Hope #DoctorWho
7. End of Nearlyhood
8. Goldie Fingers
9. 2009 - The Stats
10. Where Now for Irish Family Robinson?
11. Bonspeil Victim of Health and Safety


Where did you all come from? Well again you remained at around the 82 countries up from 60. I feel I may be doing a comparison of the full countries at some point. So in order, and no surprises at the top.

1. (1) United Kingdom
2. (2) USA
3. (3) Canada
4. (5) Ireland
5. (6) Australia
6. (4) France
7. (7) Germany
8. (12=) Netherlands
9. (10=) India
10. (41=) Philipines
11. (9) Spain


* Hey you must know the score by now, eleven all the way. Even though I got a 3rd (which is 11 in binary).