Livingston I Presume, Not

So determined to defend Labour's narrow 405 vote majority in Edinburgh South less than three months ago one of their councillors was seeking the relative security of Livingston.

Having failed to even make the short list to do a wonderful job he has returned tail between his legs to become the candidate in Edinburgh South.

Now he is claiming to ride on the coat tails of the legacy of Nigel Griffiths. "I'm absolutely delighted to have won the selection. Nigel has left a significant legacy of fighting hard for the constituents of Edinburgh South."

I notice he is also claiming like Nigel did in 2005 that it is heading into a close contest with just the Tories. Then Nigel said on an eve of poll leaflet.

Stop the Tories Here!!!

4,000 new Tory voters
have moved into South
Edinburgh

For over 100 years Edinburgh South was Tory.
With boundary changes it it heading Tory again.
You've stopped them once.
Stop them again.

Do you think that Labour really know what is going on in Edinburgh South anymore now than they did in 2005? I don't think so I have seen and heard about so little activity by them on the streets.

We all know how that gloom and doom message panned out. Nigel only just held on and we all know it wasn't the Tories he was trying to stop. But using the fear of the Thatcher years only just got enough people to back him. Surely Labour wouldn't try to fight the ghosts of the past again to try and hold on while they are leaking voters to the Lib Dems?

Oh dear. Nigel's successor is claiming that once again it is between Labour and the Tories while in 2007 the party that gained was actually the Lib Dems, when we were performing worse in the polls.

So Ian go ahead and ignore that your main rival is actually Fred Mackintosh of the Liberal Democrats, I'm sure you'll appreciate him building a fairer Britain for the people of Edinburgh South after you and the Tories fail to win.

Edinburgh South Labour Excuses Starting Already

In 2005 there were a mere 405 votes between Nigel Griffiths and the Liberal Democrats in 2005. Labour had already lost the Scottish seat that takes up most of the Westminster constituency to Mike Pringle, he went on to increase his majority in 2007. Therefore these quotes from local Labour party members in Edinburgh South make interesting reading:

One Labour Party insider said: "This decision is just typical of Nigel. That is why he will leave no legacy in South Edinburgh. He has put the party in a very difficult position by making his entire campaign centre on his personality. He was a policy-free zone. If we lose Edinburgh South, everyone will know who to blame: Nigel Griffiths."

Another local member added: "He has obviously been working on this for some time, and has now dumped the local party in it before an election."

It appears as if Labour are already preparing the way for an inevitable loss of the seat. They are already apportioning blame. The picture above is a larger that life picture of the MP that adorns his constituency office. Hardly surprising with such iconography that it's corner position is known by some locals as the Kremlin.

So with Nigel out of the picture all eyes are turning to who? I think the only logical answer is Fred Mackintosh for the Liberal Democrats.

The Tories of course are yet again talking up their chances in this seat. But they did the same in 2005 and threw everything including the kitchen sink at this seat and came a lowly third. In 2007 even with the man who eventually became their list MSP who had stood in 2005 their vote on top of what they called strong performances by David Cameron and local activity only rose by 0.6% the Lib Dem vote rose by 2.9%.

I love the fact that Gavin Brown's website from 2007 is still live.

Instead of using bar charts that show data the Tories tried to use actual figures based on electoral calculus figures of a universal swing to count for Edinburgh South. Back then they said (actual return in May 2007 in red):

Share of the vote

Labour - 28.98% 29.1%

Conservatives - 26.14% 17.2%

Lib Dems - 21.39% 35.0%

SNP - Not worthy of mention 18.8%

Oops that appears a big ask for the Tories, especially when you consider that this Lib Dem vote in the smaller Scottish constituency is actually over 1000 more than Gavin himself managed in the last General election. Even the additional 5,000 or so votes that the Tories brought to the table leaves them over 1,000 short without counting in the fact that Lib Dem voters also vote in the additional parts of the constituency in their thousands. It's hardly a surprise then that Iain Dale in his seat by seat study didn't think his party would take South.

Therefore the Labour insiders quoted above are clearly preparing themselves for a Fred Mackintosh win on May 6th. It's not all down to Nigel being a policy free zone, it is also because Fred has been to parts of the constituency that haven't seen a Tory candidate on their doorsteps in recent times, if at all. The Tories as in 2005 think they can rely on their heartland parts to the West of the constituency leaving out some of the tougher areas.

Fred doesn't take the people of Edinburgh South for granted, nor does he neglect them. Indeed many of the people in locations overlooked by the Tories still remember how the Conservatives ruined Scotland and didn't care. So Annabel Goldie's recent comments about how David Cameron and reign in Downing Street without Scotland will just bring back echoes of that.

Nigel may well have dumped the local Labour party in it, although it would appear that the local people were already making their mind up that Nigel would have to go. He lost 6% of his vote in 2005 and that was before the additional scandals of the last few years.

So even Labour in Edinburgh South are looking towards a Fred Mackintosh win there by the sounds of things, lining up their excuses already.

Standing Down and Defection

First up the rumours that Edinburgh South MP Nigel Griffiths was going to step down have been confirmed. In what was the Lib Dems number 4 target seat across the UK and top against Labour the former deputy leader of the house was defending a 405 vote majority. Unlike John McFall who announced his retirement at 65, Nigel at 54 is announcing his next career as a director of an education institution.

However, even before his sex scandal on Remembrance Sunday in the House or the expenses claims Labour's popularity in the area was declining. That was evidenced when the former leader of the council Donald Anderson stood in the Holyrood seat in 2007 to try and reclaim it from Mike Pringle only to see a swing from Labour the Lib Dems as Mike increased his majority. I don't see how anyone this close to an election can eat into the growing popularity of the Liberal Democrat candidate Fred Mackintosh, which may have also been a reason for Nigel jumping before the electorate pushed him.

Last night Yousuf hinted that there would be a SNP defection to Labour. It led to both Jeff and Will speculating that is was only a councillor and as Jeff said that maybe someone that 'the SNP would be better off without'.

Well it appears that everyone is right, South Lanarkshire councillor John McNamee who the Herald describe as a rising star of the party is the defectee. He cites the dropping of GARL (Glasgow Airport Rail Link) and the inadequacies of the SNP at town hall levels. Though the local party are investigating him after "concerns were expressed over his expense claims and use of council travel allowances" as well as his "inappropriate behaviour" at a Strathclyde Fire Board event before Christmas.

Sounds to me like he is the ideal substitute for Nigel Griffiths, in that case. Hardly one for Yousuf to have been so joyful about.

Although with 5 retirements in the last five days is there a sign outside the Labour whips' office saying retirees queue here?