Are Labour Parliamentarians Like Rats?

They say if you want to know the fate of a ship keep an eye on the rats. They'll be the first to desert a sinking ship.

Well about a quarter of Labour's Scottish MPs have now decided that enough is enough and they are getting out.

• Rosemary McKenna Cumbernauld and Kilsyth (turning 69 in May announced retirement some time ago)
• Mohammed Sarwar Glasgow Central (only 57 first elected in 1997 announced he would step down in 2007)
• Gavin Strang Edinburgh East (also late sixties flip-flopped twice on retirement before settling on the option after 40 years as MP)
• Adam Ingram East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (turned 63 yesterday announced retirement last March)
• John Reid Airdrie and Shotts
• Jim Devine Livingston (forced to step down)
• Des Browne Kilmarnock and Loudoun (announced retirement in November)
• Anne Moffat East Lothian (Deselected in November by local party in hands of NEC)
• John McFall West Dumbartonshire (announced retirement at 65 last week)
• Nigel Griffiths Edinburgh South (heading into education job rather than defend his 405 vote majority)

So what does that mean about the good ship Labour and Captain Brown, it sounds like Titanic proportions as he Darling and Murphy play on as the happy band. There are a couple of Select Committee Chairs and quite a wealth of ministerial experience in some of those. Not to mention Griffiths one of Gordon's closest friends. But look at the speculation and actual names of some of those that are seeking to replace them.

Cathie Jamieson has already been selected to replace Browne, but there is speculation that former leader of the Labour MSPs Wendy Alexander is going to seek to stand in John McFall's seat and Sandra Boyack MSP for Edinburgh Central is being rumoured to be after Edinburgh South's selection. The latter two make interesting reading as under boundary changes their Scottish Parliament seats are not as safe 12 months after the Westminster election as they were in 2007. This could be seen as an attempt to take flight before they lose at the ballot or have to look for a safer Holyrood option.

So as well as having lost a quarter of his Scottish MPs voluntarily and most likely some more at the hands of electors, there could also be the case of three high profile female MSPs having sought a dual mandate either having to serve both for a year, call a Holyrood by-election or return to Holyrood defeated. There really is a shuffling of the decks going on which indicates that the bravado and confidence that they are giving to the electorate may only be a mask.

It must be worrying times in Scottish Labour so maybe it was no wonder that they rejoiced in getting a defection from a first term councillor even if there are allegations that all is not that good in his record thus far.

Ashdown Echoes Wendy: Bring It On

The former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown has said that the unionist parties in Scotland should back a referendum on Scottish independence. He believes that taking on the nationalists head on on the issue and going with the referendum would easily kill off the nationalist movement. He said:

"This is where I do disagree with my colleagues. I don't want to criticise their tactics following the (Holyrood] election (in 2007], but let's put it like this: I would not have ruled out a referendum and I think it would have been a good time to hold it.

"The fact is that there has never been a majority for independence in Scotland. If a referendum was held, then the SNP would lose and would be finished.

"They are just playing a long game in the hope that they can persuade people to support independence by showing that they can govern competently."

The fact that the SNP Government keeps gurning about the money that they think Westminster should be giving them, and not necessarily owing them further backs up this issue. While Paddy said that Wendy Alexander was right in her call to "bring it on" her and the Labour party's execution of that demand was messed up and muddled.

The Lib Dems in Scotland have said:

"Paddy Ashdown is entitled to his own views on this matter, but the Scottish party has made its position on this clear.

"At this time, people should not be focusing on an independence referendum, but rather on the recession and supporting the economy and protecting people's jobs."

Quite correctly at this time we should be concentrating on economic matters but there will come a time when this elephant in the room may well have to be addressed, and that is something the party hasn't fully done for too long. Indeed the handling of that question was one of the few areas of divergence from the three candidates in the leadership election last year.

A Week Really is A Long Time

So what has happened in the week I've been away from the Blogosphere.

Well firstly it was revealed that the only candidate in the Crewe and Nantwich by election to warrent a mention in Debrett's wasn't the one accused of being a Toff but the candidate of the party doing the accusing. Yes for it was Tamsin Dunwoody the Labour candidate who appeared there.

The result was then that Edward 'not a toff' Timpson overturned a 7000 Labour majority into a 7000 Conservative one. In Peter Snow stylee if this were repeated across the country many Labour MPs would lose their seat including the Prime Minister, whoops.

Speaking of whom the PM is having an issue reining in rebels over his next must win. Yes he can shrug off Crewe and Nantwich as a bloody nose, but he can't do the same after previously pledgeing he would fight and win the right for detention without charge for 42 days. Last week saw him stumbling, maybe we might have our second unmandated Prime Ministerial change in less time than we all suspect if he clatters that hurdle and falls on his face.

Alex Salmond had to finally admit that his Scottish Futures Trust was actually the Public Funding Initiative in new clothes after all. While Nicol Stephen raised this matter neither Anabel Goldie nor Wendy Alexander seemed to want to lead their parties there.

Well Wendy probably has not been allowed near the sterring wheel since her bring it on statement backfired. The Scottish Labour Party don't want their road map for the future as littered as the Monaco Grand Prix circuit was yesterday. Iain Gray the enterprise spokeperson now seems to also be the new spokeperson on Independece Referendae in claiming that Alex Salmond's proposed wording of the question is too wording and not clear.

In sport Manchester United won the Champions League Final over Chelsea. They pledged to overhaul Liverpool's total in that trophy. History lesson to all Man U fans Liverpool have since first winning in 1977 been within 1 title of equalling all the other English winners of big ears, that is still true today and we've been to two finals and another semi in the last 4 campaigns. As strong a European showing as our North West rivals.

Unfortunately that was the last game in charge of the Stamford Bridge side for Afram Grant, who was unceremoniously sacked within days of the result.

Hull City have joined the big boys in the Premier League. Doncaster Rovers beat Leeds to the prize of Championship football.

Lewis Hamilton won in rain soaked Monte Carlo and went to the top of the F1 drivers Championships. And Andy Murray won his first match ever in the French Open.

Scottish Labour Back to Square One

It looks like the Snakes and Ladders set may well be being put away in the Wendy house of cards, or should that be house of horrors.

I'm sure Wendy Alexander thought she may well have found the ladder to lift her well up the board when she made her announcement that she would call for an earlier referendum than the Nats were prepared to. However, since then after she encountered a series of snakes Scottish Labour appear to be back at square one.

The Labour MSPs are now saying they could not guarantee supporting the SNPs bill calling for a referendum on independence in 2010. Nor are they saying they ever offered a blank cheque of support to the SNP at any point during their leader's ramble around every compass point on this issue. Therefor we are back where we were
on that Sunday morning of the 4th May before Wendy said bring it on.

There is the right to roam here in Scotland I think the MSPs may soon me asking their leader to exercise that right.

Wendy All a Dither

As an economics graduate I know the question in a room full of economists how may theories on any economic issues are in the room? The answer for those less au fait with a gathering of economist is n+1 where n is the number of economists present.

However, over the last week I've come to the conclusion that like those children's day a week underpants sets Wendy Alexander must have been given a week long policy a day set over independence.

From bring it on a personal statement, it gained the backing of the MSPs, but the PM turned his back on it saying it was a matter for the Scottish Leader, who then said she'd bring her own policy paper for a quicker referendum, to losing the backing of the party's Scottish National Exec at the weekend. We now have her not going to stand in the way of the SNPs own policy proposal on the issue.

Or dear, one Sunday Wendy Alexander finds a rocky promontory to stand on, but after a week and a day of gales, realising it was a slippery rock and that she did not really have a hold and support of those standing behind her, she's run unto the beach, only to get stuck in the sand.

Maybe she'll considering burying her sand in it for a while as the Nats will just attack her, her own party just stalk her, the Tories and Lib Dems at Holyrood mock her, and those pro-referendum pro-union supporters are still scratching their heads trying to ascertain whether she's done any good or damage to the whole issue with her whole random policy making this week, based on which set of undies she's been wearing.

Wendy About to Make Double U-Turn

On Friday I decided that's I'd had enough personally of blogging about the Wendy house of cards over the referendum for independence statement Labour's Scottish leader made last week. However, when you wake up this morning and the Scottish Edition of the Times headline is 'Mad' Wendy on Brink over new U-Turn some promises, even those made to yourself have to be broken.

They do say a week is a long time in politics and it appears that having made that U-turn statement last Sundaoy to hurry up the Nats over a referendum on independence, Wendy Alexander is being forced into doing another three point turn this weekend. Is a U-Turn of a U-Turn a Double U or W-Turn. Anyway the result is that Wendy appears to have been going around in circles this week, looking like a headless chicken rather than a leader of the second largest party in Holyrood. It may have been when the Prime Minister failed to back her up properly in the commons that Wendy's spinning, not spin doctoring, started in earnest.

Whatever is going on it is making her position as a leader almost untenible. Her predecessor Jack McConnell has brended her 'mad', and she has also garnerd criticism from former First Minister Henry McLeish who said she had been ineffective in opposition and former Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott. Yesterday Scottish Labour's national executive met and as a result Ms Alexander tried to pull herself out of the inreasing mire she had created for herself, then dragged her party into, by saying that her party could no longer guarantee a referendum.

Oh dear the party had sheepishly followed the leader, first assuraning they backed her on her call for a referendum, but then turned on her. It looks like Wendy's house of cards is on the brink of collapse.

It's Now or Never: The Convenience of Entymology

Yesterday PMQs was more a matter of entymology than what was happening in the Wendy house up at Holyrood. However, Dave leader of the opposition and second most powerful Tory in London asked away:

Labour’s leader in Scotland, Wendy Alexander, says that there should be a referendum now on Scottish independence. Does he agree with her?

Up stood the Tim'rous Beastie, to correctly say that she had not said now. However, now is one of those words in politics that does not have the same entomology as elsewhere in the known universe. You see now in politics takes some time to actually come to reality cogs need to be set in motion, to enable now to come to be at the appropriate time.

It was when Dave tried to follow up with:

She said: "I don’t fear the verdict of the Scottish people," she told BBC Scotland on Sunday, "Bring it on."

What else could that possibly mean? Can I ask the Prime Minister again? Does he agree with Wendy Alexander or not? It is not much of a leadership if no one is really following him.

However, then the Tim'rous Beastie ignored the facts that Ms Alxeander's aides had clarified her statement on Sunday, by telling the world that she was in favour of a referendum. On Monday that she had said she wanted it within 12 month, a relative now in the world of political planning. That on Tuesday the Labour group at Holyrood had met and agreed this new tact, with Gordon Brown's own spokesmouse saying the issue is "a matter for the leader of the Labour Party in Scotland". Having had that clearance Ms Alexander clarified her position by saying that ideally such a referendum should take place in 2009.

To what is happening to the Wendy house of cards or the Tim'rous Beastie who's facing agitated reactions from his mischief of mice. From the outside clearly they are playing this on the hoof and nobody quite knows what is going to happen next. One leader has found a potential way to get out of the trough they are in the other is still looking and he is possibly jealous that there is a get out clause for his Scottish counterpart.

Corrected: Thanks to Bernard Salmon for correcting my English usage. Apologies for any insect lovers who thought I was referring to their speciality instead of the derivation and usage of the word now.

News of Wendy's Neverendum Spreads to Englandshire

It's good to see that Wendy Alexander's comments regarding a referendum on Independence has raised some post from the non-Scottish Lib Dem blogosphere.

Nick Barlow writes with barely contained excitement about the possibility of a Super Thursday in 2010 if the referendum falls on the same day as the by election. Many of us in Scotland, especially those who advocate a referendum, fear that possibility.

It would mean a number of things. All parties would be facing the General Election on the single issue, independence. There would be no room to be distinctive on other issues, everything would be tied into whether it would be improved or worse in an Independent Scotland. It would also could lead to a similar occurance to last may, or the London Mayoral elections, where all otherparties would be slung aside as the big two fought it out.

I'd personally want us to face a question on independence separately away from the other issues and the chore that is hard enough of trying to retain and gain seats in Westminster. Also this would allow us to explore all the nuances of what independence needs without having to worry about all the issues on a local level in those keys seats.

However, he has only sketched some initial thoughts and says he expects to post more later.

Alex Wilcox is looking at the psychology behind this announcement so soon after the disastorous elections down south. He takes a differing view from myself saying not like I did on Monday that is was taking the fight to the SNP but it was actually taken the fight to the Tories on the national stage. Also in a way trying to prevent the Scottish voters falling out of love with Labour in a similar way to what happened to the Tories in recent decades.

Both make interesting reading from an outsiders point of view.

Meanwhile in Scotland fellow Lib Dem Bernard Salmon adds his thoughts on it. While he thinks that me and Iain Dale are in error to renew (like I've ever not un-newed it) our claims that the Scottish Lib Dems should do the same. I was reminded last night that I'm not alone especially within my local party on thinking that the lack or even considering or discussing of this following last May's result made us look illiberal and undemocratic. The fact that he also disagrees with the official party line shows that the party is somewhere between a rock and a hard place on this issue right now.

Ladies Take to Your Corners Please

And Prepare to Come out Fighting

Well after Wendy Alexander threw the first punch in the latest round of the Independence referendum fight at the weekend. Which she, backed by her cabinet member brother Douglas, hastily followed up with a call that the SNP were running scared by holding it in 2010. You may be forgiven for thinking that the Nats may have been reeling.

Well they sent out Alex, nope my mistake, the First Minister is not the big hitter on this one, it's Nicola Sturgeon that's been sent out to take this on. She said echoing the chant of Big Daddy in the wrestling ring that the Nats shall not be moved, not even it would appear to bring forward their primary aim to take Scotland forward to independence that bit quicker. They still want to have it in 2010, which looks most likely to be an election year. So the issue may still be buried behind other issues and not given the clear light of day that it needs and deserves to be debated fully.

Nicola accuses Wendy of being desperate. Wendy accuses Nicola of running scared. Looks like the WWE big event may bale beside the build up to this fight at Holyrood.

Wendy Comes Out Fighting

For weeks, neigh month, the leader of Labour in Scotland has looked like a punch drunk boxer, up against the ropes waiting for the next punch or hoping that her corner would through in the towel, while facing Alex Salmond in the chamber at Holyrood. However, just like in all the Rocky films you think its all over then, using all effort one final telling blow swings the whole thing around. Well Wendy may be setting up a few jabs ahead of that telling blow.

Yesterday she announced her intention to back Alex Salmond's call to give the people of Scotland a say on independence by referendum. As regular readers of this blog are aware I've long held the view that by calling a referendum and giving people a clear view of all that independence would entail, it would knock the wind out of the Nats sails, when it fails.

I personally don't think that the people of Scotland do want independence and that view appears to be backed up by opinion polls. If senior SNP backers like Tom Farmer are urging caution about haste over the matter, I think Wendy Alexander is right to bring it on. Lets give the people of Scotland what they actually want a devolved Parliament, inside the UK with greater powers to govern the people of Scotland better.