Lib Dems choose Sophie Bridger for Inverclyde

Picture of me explaing something. Sophie is on the arm of the chair

Congratulation to my friend Sophie Bridger who today has been announced as the Liberal Democrat candidate to fight the Inverclyde by election. Sophie is the current President of Liberal Youth Scotland and like her predecessors is a strong voice not just for student issues but Liberal values.

I last saw Sophie on Friday at the funeral of Andrew Reeves the Scottish Director of Campaigns. With Andrew's invovlemnt both with campaigns and Liberal Youth he would be enthusiastically looking forward to, scrap that he'd already be throwing himself into, helping Sophie fight this campaign. He'd be delighted that one of the LYS mob was taking on the challenge.

With a by election pending I promised last Friday to give some time to come over to campaign for whoever was selected. I'm trying to sort out a few things over the next few days to free up some time to make it over to Scotland next week to help Sophie and the team.

More women but still a ways to go #AE11

One of mine and politicians of all persuasions over the weekend was the sight of Dawn Purvis being eliminated from the count in East Belfast. Last year after the UVF the paramilitary group associated with the Progressive Unionist Party of which she was leader murdered Billy Moffett, she stepped down as leader and resigned from the party. She was a vibrant and feisty member of the Assembly and did a lot of work in highlighting the double and triple jobbing of some of her colleagues. She will be sorely missed.

However, there are now more women in this Assembly that in the last, which had 15. Twelve actually got re-elected and there are eight new faces to join them. That raises the representation of women to 18.5 percent still a long way to go to gender equality. Northern Ireland may be moving out of a warlike status of politics but the combatants are still largely male.

Margaret Ritchie had a appalling performance in the final leaders debate. She really was the sniping old wife at the garden fence with he snide one liners. It wasn't becoming and may have affected some of the SDLP's slide. She is better than that and hopefully some of the new in take will show what women can do. Of the women returning both Anna Lo (Alliance) South Belfast, Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Féin) Fermanagh and South Tyrone and Michelle McIlveen (DUP) Strangford all managed to join Ritchie in topping their polls and getting in on the first count. Sinn Féin's Jennifer McCann (West Belfast) and Martina Anderson (Foyle) along with the DUP's Arlene Foster (Fermanagh and South Tyrone) were other women returned by reaching their quota on the first round.

They include Brenda Hale the war widow who is now DUP MLA for Lagan Valley who has already said she will fight for war widows' rights, the DUP's Paula Bradley who is just completing her term as Mayor of Newtownabbey but now now MLA for East Antrim, the UUP's women's officer Sandra Overend was also elected in Mid Ulster and Judith Cochrane of the Alliance Party continuing the party's success in East Belfast where she joined Chris Lyttle who had replaced Naomi Long as MLA when she was elected to Westminster.

 The other debutantes in the Assembly are DUP's Pam Lewis (South Antrim), UUP's Joanne Dobson (Upper Bann), Sinn Féin's Michaela Boyle (West Tyrone) and Karen McKevitt for the SDLP in (South Down).

Somebody's put a little tribute together for Dawn, I like it especially as it has a shot of Dawn out with us for the Yes! campaign last Sunday in it.

Party Election Broadcast Watch 9: Socialist Party #AE11

Over here in Northern Ireland we have a different set of parties, with a different set of policies and a different set of priorities to a lot of the rest of the UK. In the run up to the Assembly Election on May 5th they are going to be prodicing a series of election broadcasts. I intend to, if they are easily available (i.e. on YouTube), embed them here so that people outside of Northern Ireland can see what the parties here are saying. I personally won't be passing comment, but feel free to add you own in the comments thread.

I've been rather remiss at keeping this up this week, but here is the Socialist Party's broadcast.

Blogged Elsewhere: There will be an AV Election in the Lords

As anyone who has followed proceedings in the House of Lords, with regard to the Bill that could bring about a referendum for a fairer voting system for Westminster elections, the Labour peers have dragged their heels.

There are still 92 positions for hereditary peers in the House of Lords. This was the number that was decided upon in 1999 would exist until all hereditary positions were removed. However, when one of that number dies, there is a by-election in the upper chamber...

Read the full story at Fairer Votes Belfast

Cé a bogadh an eascaire? - Who'll move the writ?

Now that the formalities of Gerry Adams vacating his seat, as Nigel Dodds wittingly said in PMQs to emigrate, or at least attempt, to so he can stand for the Dail Éireann, here is the next issue.

The Parliament website says that:

"Traditionally the Chief Whip of the political party whose MP held the vacant seat will begin the procedure for a by-election. This is known as 'moving the Writ' and takes the form of a motion in the House of Commons."

This has to occur within the next three months now that the vacancy has arisen. Now the highest level Chief whip that Sinn Féin have within the United Kingdom is Carál Ní Chuilín at the Assembly, who is not one of their 4 remaining MPs, not that she or any of the 4 MPs are likely to take the oath merely to move the writ.

The recent occurrence in Oldham East and Saddleworth was moved by the Liberal Democrats because although Phil Woolas had been elected as a Labour MP upon the initial court hearing he was suspended from his party, therefore the Lib Dems in second place were the top party in the previous election to have a party member still from that ballot.

In the case of West Belfast it may well fall upon the SDLP also the party in second place in May's elections who are the party that will move the writ as no members of the party who have vacated the seat have a member sworn in at Westminster.

Ádh mór ar an Maor nua ar an Mhainéir na Northstead. Nó an bhfuil sé? ~

For the first time since 17 April 1986* Northern Ireland have both the Steward of the Manor of Northstead (see above) and Steward of the Chiltern Hundreds. Iris Robinson is the holder of the latter title since she stepped down from Westminster on the 13 January last year. However, with the announcement today of the General Election in Éire for 11 March and the intention of the long time Belfast West MP to seek election to the Dáil Éireann for Louth, we have (or will shortly) have a new Maor an Mhainéir na Northstead (Steward of the Manor of Northstead).


The reason I'm referring to one of the two "offices of profit under The Crown" in Gaeilge (Irish) first today is because of the irony that today brings. The taking of such an office disqualifies an individual from sitting as a Member of Parliament, that steward of one of those offices is someone who hasn't taken his seat since first being elected on 9 June 1983 (though not the MP from 1992-97).

May I introduce Gearóid Mac Ádhaimh, Maor an Mhainéir na Northstead (Gerry Adams, Steward of the Manor of Northstead).

If Eric Illsley, MP for Barnsley Central,  had actually already stepped down the Sinn Féin president would have been taking an office off the wife of the DUP's First Minister. As it is Illsley only announced on 12 January that he was winding down his office, before stepping down as an MP before he is sentenced next month for his guilt of false accounting over his expenses.

Update: On Monday 24 January it emerged than somehow Gerry Adams had managed to resign as an MP without taking an "Office of Profit Under the Crown". Has he managed in his final act to change the British constitution? We may have to wait until the next Stewardship is announced from the Treasury. If it is Northstead, some deal has been done, if it the Chiltern Hundreds, it has merely been supressed.

Update: On 25 January Ian Paisley MP (Antrim North) raised a point of order to the speaker about the status of Mr Adams resignation, asking had he accepted an office of profit under the crown in his correspondence to the speaker. In the reply the speaker stated that correspondence with him was confidential, but that the matter was one that should be resolved and shall be.

Update: In Prime Minister's  on the 26 January Nigel Dodds MP (Belfast North) asked the following question:

"You may be aware that one of the Members elected to this House has decided to emigrate - and you may want to chalk that up as one of your achievements.

"The said Member for West Belfast, Gerry Adams, seems to be embarrassed about applying for an office under the Crown, an office for profit - although he has shown no such embarrassment of profiting from his office in this House for many years at taxpayers' expense. 

"When will you deliver on your pre-election pledge to hard-pressed taxpayers that you will abolish parliamentary money for parliamentary purposes going to those who do not fulfil their parliamentary duties?"

To which David Cameron responded

"First of all, just in case people haven't caught up with the news, you are quite right that the Honourable Member for West Belfast has accepted an office for profit under the Crown, which of course is the only way you can retire from this house.

"I'm not sure that Gerry Adams will be delighted to be a baron of the Manor of Northstead. But nonetheless I'm pleased that tradition has been maintained. 

"In my view, what we should be aiming for is for all Members who are elected to take their seats in this House. That is what should happen. 

"And if some Members have a problem with what that entails, they ought to look at a remedy for that and they should come and talk about that. I think that is the most important thing we can achieve." 

So there we have it finally confirmed 6 days later (and after I first wrote this), Gerry Adams (Gearóid Mac Ádhaimh) is the Steward of the Manor of Northstead (Maor an Mhainéir na Northstead).

~ Translation Good luck to the new Steward of the Manor of Northstead.
* When Times columnist Matthew Paris took the Stewardship of the Manor of Northstead in place of Enoch Powell.

If 42 is the Answer is General in March?

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy would have this to say about the Labour Party's attitude to by elections in their gift, had the editor on Alpha Centurii ever got around to amending the entry on Earth from 'Mostly Harmless' to something with a little more flesh.

The approach that Labour have to on of their members dying is confusing, no confusing that that. Think of the difficulties the male of the various species have had in pleasuring Eccentrica Gallumbits the triple breasted whore of Eroticon Six. Then, as rumour has it, the only person to give her the biggest bang since the big one had a extra arm fitted or the purpose. Of course the fact that said arm belonged to one time President of the Galaxy, and fugitive space joy Zaphod Bebblebrox and you might just get to the level of confusion required.

The Labour Party in the United Kingdom (a rather small sea locked mixture of islands at what was once erroneously considered to the be the North West corner of the world) actually change their mind on what is appropriate when one of their Members of Parliament dies or for that matter resigns.

There have been occasions when they rushed out a tribute leaflet within days of the funeral, and moved a writ to replace the deceased before the worms have even managed to get a sniff of the delights within the wooden casket, let alone been able to move into the vicinity of the meat counter. It is clear that on these occasions it is highly appropriate to have had discussions in private about the timing and actions to be taken. Indeed it is apparent that in the past their thoughts haven't always been "completely with" the family of the deceased.

However, there are times as the ape descended carbon based lifeform Mark Reckon's points out when they seem to want to hold off. However, as was later unearthed at the time of the second coming of the Great Green Arklesiezure this was because they did not heed the far larger death to come of the New Labour project itself.

As Mark points out with the exception of Glasgow North East 42 working days would be above average for the period from writ to by election. If Labour hold off beyond that expect a March election to negate the need to move the writ.

Lib Dem Gain in Bearsden South - A Minor Result Correction

Tales of the Lib Dem implosion as expressed in recent times by SNP Tactical Voting and others appears to be somewhat premature.

Ashay Ghai has won the Bearsden South by election for East Dunbartonshire Council from the Conservatives with 1770 votes to 1499. The Conservatives were defending the seat as a result of the resignation of Simon Hutchison who couldn't juggle his demands as a solicitor with his council work. He was the convenor of the planning committee on the Labour/Conservative coalition run council.

Local MP Jo Swinson said:

"I'm delighted Ashay Ghai has won this by-election. There is no sign of a David Cameron bounce in Scotland.

"This is a tremendous boost to the Liberal Democrats as we head towards a general election."

Labour who are saying they will be challenging the Jo's seat of which this is one of the wards were the first party to be eliminated under STV in the first round.

Tavish Scott added his praise for the win by Ashay saying:

"This is fantastic achievement by Ashay Ghai and his local campaigning team, supported by his local MP Jo Swinson. Liberal Democrats beating the Conservatives with Labour humiliated all bodes well for the coming general election.

"People recognise that it is the Liberal Democrats on the side of hard working Scottish families during Labour’s recession, with the Tories only offering tax breaks for the very richest in our society.

"Ashay Ghai will be a local champion for Bearsden South."

For the electoral geeks amongst you here is how the STV system worked out.

Stage 1:
Ashay Ghai LD 1110
Rachel Higgins Con 1261
Fiona Grace McLeod SNP 783
Manjinder Shergill Lab 626

Stage 2 elimination of Shergill:
LD 13061381
Con 13811306
SNP 972

Stage 3 elimination of McLeod:
LD 1770
Con 1499

Originally posted 11 Dec 09 at 13:06 but updated for correction of second stage trasfers. The result in the second stage shows how well the Lib Dem team did at targeting Labour second preferences, as only 45 transfered to the Tories.

Other SNP Luminaries Speak - Tam Smith

I've been quiet all week, not able to keep an eye on t'internet. So I've only just checked on Tam Smith the SNP candidate for Linlithgow and East Falkirk's website. Since one of my last posts before the crash was looking at Tam's propensity to speak the talk of other SNP luminaries I'm pleased to see other's are now speaking on his blog.

In the last week he appears to have learnt the lesson and is quoting Angus Robertson from this news story. I'm glad to see that honesty has finally come to the SNP candidates website about just who is saying what. I hope that this is a sign of integrity in his campaigning techniques over the coming months.

Although he doesn't seem to have used the quoted in the story that says that Glasgow can end 74 years of Labour neglect that was posted on the SNP site on Wednesday.

"In the last few days Labour’s campaign has collapsed as revelation after revelation has shown up Labour’s hypocrisy.

"In the last four days it has emerged that Labour are planning 4000 job cuts in the city, slashed 300 teaching posts, are withholding £300 million of funding from the Glasgow Commonwealth and are cutting more than 40% of seats on a vital rail link into the city.

"In contrast, the SNP is winning support as we offer a fresh start for the constituency with a strong voice to speak up for Glasgow North East and to stand by the people of this area"

So if the SNP where gaining support and Labour were collapsing, just how bad were they this time last week? After all the end result was a 3:1 difference in support on the night. Was it 4:1, 5:1 just how bad were their canvas returns looking. One has to wonder just what the figures in Alec Neill's pocket were in the STV studio on Thursday night. I witnessed how far off their prediction was at first hand in Glenrothes, remember their similar quotes before Dunfermline and West Fife. Of course in fairness I also saw Labour appear to have got it wrong first hand in Livingston, I'd never seen such faces as long as Lurgan spades from the Labour mob in West Lothian before that night, and that was before the boxes started to arrive.

First Minister's Admission of Cockiness

Yes in today's Times there is an admission from Alex Salmond that he was "too cocky" during the Glenrothes by-election. That was the election that everybody it seemed, except for those of doing the Lib Dem box counts, thought was too close to call even as the ballots were being counted.

The announcement came that Salmond who personally spent 11 days in Glenrothes said he would be taking a lower profile approach this time around. Considering only last autumn he was basically braying for Gordon Brown to come up and get involved in the fight. But he now states that his too much of a hands on approach cost the SNP the election this is a strange u-Turn for the party that two years ago on their list candidates for Holyrood had 'Alex Salmond for First Minister' rather than the party name.

Maybe as John Curtis, Strathclyde University's Professor of Politics points out this isn't so much about an admission of the First Minister's cockiness, but an admission of defeat.

"If you don't think you are going to win, taking a less visible part in the contest would be the sensible strategy. You don't want to be associated with something which could be regarded as failure but I don't accept that Alex Salmond lost them Glenrothes. They lost because the SNP was out-campaigned by Labour and did not take enough notice of Labour's attacks."

Another admission from a friend is also interesting, stating that he doesn't want to overshadow the candidate former BBC journalist David Kerr, and that "He is mindful that he is not the candidate". Interesting comment in that is he mindful that he is also not a candidate in the Westminster elections coming up next year where he insists on being in on the leadership debates.

Lib Dem Eileen Baxendale to Stand in Glasgow North East

As Andrew and Caron have already told you, if you read their blogs, the Lib Dems have today announced that Eileen Baxendale has been selected as the candidate for the by election in Glasgow North East to replace the former speaker Michael Martin.

Having been a social worker for 28 years, a director of the Fair Shares Trust, Ethnic Minorities Law Centre and Minority Ethnic Christians Together in Scotland Eileen brings a breadth and wealth of experience that would enhance the Houses of Commons.

Commenting on her selection the South Lanarkshire Councillor said:

"At a time when faith in MPs is at an all time low, it’s time for a fresh start in Springburn.

"Gordon Brown’s Labour Government is gasping its last breath. Labour are out of touch and letting local people down. The SNP is no alternative. They will be full of empty promises - their track record at Holyrood speaks volumes.

"If people in Glasgow North East want a committed voice to stand up for them in Westminster, they should vote Liberal Democrat. I will be a strong champion for the people of Glasgow North East."

She now faces Alex Salmond's chosen one former BBC journalist David Kerr for the SNP and Labour's Willie Bain, in an election the date of which has yet to be decided. This has been a busy Westminster term for us in Scotland after Livingston, Dunfermline & West Fife, Glasgow East and Glenrothes, we now face our fifth Westminster by election. Yet again it is commutable from the main urban hubs of Edinburgh, Sterling and Dundee (and all places in between) and of course Glasgow itself.

Will You Still Vote Me, Tomorrow

There has been a rush this afternoon to get through the unfinished business of the House of Commons on the last day of the parliamentary session. Snuck in the middle of that was a SNP attempt to move the writ for the Glasgow North East by election.

Many people including Scottish Unionist (I kid you not) were rooting for the SNP.

Harriet Harman as Leader of the House moved an amendment opposing the writ being moved today. Saying that she wanted a by election when most people have the chance to vote. But wasn't it only last year that they rushed the Glasgow East election through just so that there would be less people able to vote as it was scheduled during the Glasgow fair period (something Angus Robertson pointed out shortly after I tweeted it). I guess having lost then the Labour Party aren't trusting their own voters to be around in the summer.

Patrick Cormack of the Conservatives did point out that Harriet Harman suggestion that the speak was last elected as a Labour MP was in error as in 2001 and 2005 he stood as the speaker. As one of this colleagues pointed out that effectively made him an independent as he represented no party. This was part of the crux of the SNP argument for Parliament to be able to move this writ not a particular party.

David Heath of the Lib Dems pointed out that there was an issue with the system (yes another one) in that the majority party could use this situation for political gain rather than for the good of the people.

But Jim Sheridan did shot a hole in another thrust of the SNPs case that the people of Glasgow North East would be unrepresented in the House until November. When he raised that with the exception only of the Sinn Fein member the members of Banff and Buchan had the MP with the worst voting record in the commons going on for far longer than the time Glasgow NE would be without an MP.

In the end the amendment passed 238 - 127 so we still have to wait for a Glasgow by election. As Paul Waugh of the Evening Standard pointed out with that figure is the SNP had tipped off the Conservatives and Lib Dems with a little Matt Santos-esque heading to Norwich subterfuge they may well have pulled it off.


Tom Harris, who contributed to the debate, Tweeted:

SNP motion defeated. They complained that the Glasgow East by-election was in the summer, now moaning that North East will be Nov. Lambs!

A speakers conference was mentioned during the debate. The issue of replacing a speaker may be an issue to be discussed for reform. But well done for the SNP for having the cajones to challenge convention and Parliamentary procedure in this way. Shame on Labour for being the only obstacle.

Candidate Mocks Glasgow Universities

The Principal of Glasgow Caledonian University has branded the SNP candidate for the Glasgow North East by election a 'dangerous elitist' for his comments in 2007 that the university did "not have a reputation to tarnish" at this alma mater St Andrews.

Now I have a lot to thank St. Andrews for, not least of which is that two Graduates of that institution have provided me two gorgeous nephews. But I ended up at a Polytechnic originally before coming away with a University degree when Kingston moved from one status to the other. I agree with Dr Ian Johnston's comments that the majority of the mainly vocational courses are externally professionally accredited, and so offer a good route to employment. As Willie Rennie MP for Dunfermline and West Fife also says:

'The institutions have a good reputation for their partnerships with industry and for improving the life opportunities of thousands of people of all ages and from a wide diversity of backgrounds.

'In fact I would argue that Paisley and Glasgow Colleges gave a bigger lift or added value to their students than those institutions that Mr Kerr thinks are only worthy of any consideration.'

Indeed I do recall that at the end of my first term of University comparing notes with some of my school friends who were also studying Economics elsewhere, including St. Andrews. As we were only studying one course and not the other lines of study that the University's insisted on we'd actually covered more in that first three months than they would encounter in their first year.

As Willie says thankfully not all people associated with the ancient Universities think that way. But there are a number of people that they churn out that think deriding the newer Universities is a matter of jest, that they can be make 'light-hearted' comments about. The people who attend such places often don't have the privileges that many of the ancient Graduates have had. It's hardly surprising that even during my brother's time at St. Andrews there was a degree of social climbing that some people tried to do in that fine Fife institution. Aiming for acceptance by the 'Yahs' the group of those with received pronunciation, often Oxbridge rejects, was a goal for some.

The SNP are trying to wipe away this sort of comment as a one off joke, yet a BBC source said Kerr was always seen as "a bit arrogant" by colleagues. "He thinks other people aren't as intelligent as he is."

Is that sort of person really going to be best placed to serve the people of NE Glasgow?

Campaign So 'Clean' that Chloe Smith's Job was Swept Under the Carpet

Oh dear. I've just read the following report of David Cameron's latest defence of Norwich North candidate Chloe Smith:

David Cameron has told voters in the upcoming Norwich North by-election that Tory Chloe Smith is the only candidate who has campaigned in a "positive way".

The Leader of the Opposition said Labour had just produced "smear after smear" while Ms Smith was the only one to sign a clean campaign agreement.

He was rallying Conservative supporters at Drayton Village Hall.

Oh dear. Signing something isn't how you will be recognised of being a clean campaigner it is what you say and do.

Looking at Chloe's latest leaflet (courtesy of Norfolk Blogger) she says:

'Sadly the one thing that comes across is how little faith people have in politicians to tell the truth and actually deliver on their promises. I want to be different.'

Nice sentiment. Later in the contract she writes in:

'Sometimes you have to choose between your principles and party loyalty - a
I will always choose my principles.'

One of those principles she seems to want to highlight is openness and honesty. Going so far as to suggest:

'if I am elected as your Member of Parliament - hold me to what I promise at the General Election next year.

'And by that time, if you think that I've broken any one of these promises you should vote me out.

'That's the sort of MP I want to be honest, straight-talking and
different.'

Ok then, why should be people of Norwich North have to wait until the next election to hold her to account. Surely if she has already put party loyalty over principle, if she has been less than straight-talking an honest surely they can merely decide not to even vote her in on Thursday that would save a lot of heartache and hand wringing over the months ahead.

So this 'different' candidate who doesn't want to be part of the party machine hasn't been altogether honest and straight talking about just how she is employed. She states she is a 'business consultant' rather vague, hardly straight talking and also not entirely truthful. The Times exposes that:

'she is on secondment to the Conservatives’ implementation unit. Ms Smith, who
is registered as an assistant to James Clappison, a Shadow Work and Pensions Minister, is drawing up plans on how the party would govern once in power. '

Oh how very 'different' of her. Now I reckon the people of Norwich North may not have minded if this 'honest' candidate had told them what she was doing. David Cameron says she has run a clean campaign yet not been upfront with just what she has been doing for the last year, nor that she lives in North London not North Norwich.

As I said above signing a clean campaign pledge is only really worth more than the paper it is written on if you really are clean about what you say and do. Sadly Chloe Smith is already showing herself to be just the sort of politician that even her literature doesn't really want to have as the MP for Norwich North.

Unbe-foxing-lieveable

This is not a hoax, this is the latest Labour leaflet in a desperate Norwich North Campaign.




Is it just me and all my friends playing Mafia Wars affecting me? But does this mean that unless Labour get in they are going to kill the poor innocent fox they are holding hostage?

Nats Hobson's Choice for Glasgow North East

Well there is a new SNP short list for the candidate to contest the Glasgow North East by election and I list it below in full:

David Kerr

There you have it. The only name on the list is that of former BBC Scotland Journalist David Kerr.

However, the press do need to get their facts straight over this 4th candidate thing. Anne McLaughlin didn't so much step down as step aside while elevated to MSP. Don't forget she had been the de facto candidate for a replacement on the list since 2007 as well as PPC for Glasgow North East. Of course the fact that the SNP were the only of the big for Scottish parties to have a PPC to stand against the then speaker has added to their misery over this affair.

As for Grant Thoms who replaced Anne as PPC from what I understand the SNP party rules are very similar to those of the Lib Dems. In the event of a by election any PPC in place is able to apply for the position of by election candidate, he decided not to at this time. The Scotsman said he withdrew over unguarded comments on his blog which may be a far more accurate description than the Herald calling it a controversial blog. Tartan Hero was no more a controversial blog than any of the other partisan blogs in the Scottish Blogosphere, and the bloggers do, with the odd exceptions, tend to largely get on.

The only really controversial thing about this whole selection procedure is how James Dornan, the man who beat Kerr in the selection last week, expected to hide his financial issues in the full glare of a by election spot light. To be honest it makes Grant's decision not to stand for either the comments or his sexuality look mediocre in comparison, indeed in light of the current climate in Parliament such honesty in a politician would have been a refreshing asset.

Anyway as it stands the SNP members of Glasgow North East will this evening be more than likely endorsing the preferred candidate of Alex Salmond. That is unless there is another twist in the tale and he doesn't carry the room. Then what?

Is Devine Going to Recall Himself?

There has been a lot of talk in recent times in Westminster about adopting some form of recall system that could be triggered by an electorate if their MP has been found guilty of breaking Parliamentary code. However, as with Dr Ian Gibson in Norwich North there is the now talk of the possibility that Jim Devine in Livingston may well stand down forcing a by election. The possibility of him standing independently making it effectively his own recall.

It is possible that he would stand himself as an Independent in any such by election (as he disbarred from standing under the Labour banner he has served as agent, candidate and MP for a quarter of a century. In a comment I made on Jeff's SNP Tactical Voting blog it throws back to the experience of the first General Election I was old enough to vote in.

1992 found me on the electoral roll in Coventry South East during the period of Militant deselections from the Labour Party. The sitting MP then was Dave Nellist who was the closest of the Millitant expulsions to getting re-elected and for that election made the safe Labour seat into a three way marginal. The vote that day was:

Jim Cunningham Labour 11,902
Martine Hyams* Conservative 10,591
Dave Nellist Independent Labour 10,551

It is interesting to think that the last time I voted in a Westminster election (for all of 2005 I was living in Livingston Village) may well lead to a similar situation. It leads to interesting questions as Caron has laid out or indeed as I did last night.

How Labour select their candidate, whether all women short list or not it will be done by a local party that not 10 days ago endorsed a candidate that has now been deselected by the committee of the party's National Executive Committee.

Then there is the man himself who watching the news coverage (yeah including the Charles Dundas face in the background most often picture) many people, even those who appreciated him, are wary because of the expenses scandal.

As for the Nats well they PPC doesn't want to be in Westminster for even as long as Jim Devine. They are wanting a referendum on Independence within 18 months. Alex Salmond is saying that there should be a debate and referendum about the Calman proposals.

If there is a second Livingston by election that will be a issue that no doubt the SNP will run with and to be honest I think it is something that the Lib Dems should be proud of our record on and take the fight to the Nats. It was a number of years ago that in a healthy debate and close call that we democratically voted for Fiscal Autonomy for Scotland. Tam Dalyell in yesterday's Scotsman is trying to avoid the partial West Lothian answer. Sadly it shows that Labour like to talk the talk about the reform but are actually very conservative when it comes to implementation, but I'll take the Laird of the Binns to task in another blog post later on that point.

It really does lead to interesting permutations as to what could happen. In the current climate there are issues and situations that arise that work in the Lib Dems favour. If Devine were to step down we as Lib Dems should not be scared of taking the lead on those issues and pushing Alex Salmond unto his back foot and into the ropes.

Whoever takes the Lib Dem mantle into a by election or for the General Election there is plenty of scope and opportunity to get across our message of real change. Something that we have laid out but which the other 3 parties are still talking about as pie in the sky. We also have the space to get a clear message across which was lost somewhat in the recent Euro elections by the hi-jacking of the political agenda but in a way this time we can talk the issues that need to be talked for Westminster without qualms as it is for a Westminister seat, it's not a referendum on Independence, though we shouldn't be afraid to jab, upper cut and hook into that fight with some killer punches.

In the 2005 by election the press starting talking up the contest as only between the SNP and Labour from even before electioneering got under way. I've noticed already they are doing that again. But there is so much more change in the political landscape since then. Labour are in turmoil (although they will deny it in open), the SNP whole raison d'être is coming to a head, the Tories are showing as no ideas. The Lib Dem's Vince Cable was like John the Baptist crying in the wilderness about Banking regulation, problems that would have for the economy and found to be correct. Nick Clegg has laid down the gauntlet on political reform than more than just trimming away the split ends and messy edges is a complete re-landscaping of our politics. We are radical, relevant, reforming and ready to take the issues up with all comers.

Earlier today I popped into Clifton Terrace where with Charles Dundas and myself in the same room the joking was at times about which of us was going to get our nomination papers in first for the Livingston by election. Also makes the fate that the selection of West Lothian Lib Dem PPCs has yet to take place (at least in the actualité) a far more open scenario than in 2005 when we were two months after pledging to fight on for our respective constituencies.

Further add into the by election speculation mix that fellow blogger Nich Starling is being talked about as a potential for Norwich North and the Lib Dem blogosphere would certainly have plenty to talk about.

* One lasting memory of Martine's election literature was that it mentioned she was a graduate of 'Kingstone [sic] Polytechnic' my own tertiary educational establishment as it was known at the time. The fact that she couldn't spell Kingston correctly on her literature was another reason that I would never have voted for her, yeah I voted Lib Dem at just after 7am on election day (as you may know from recent tweets my time of voting in person is pretty static).

Labour Tactical Seat Planning?

In a pastiche to Jeff at SNP Tactical Voting my good friend Caron raised an intersting point last night when she wrote:

"The question is will Devine resign now, like Ian Gibson, and cause another by-election? If he did, that would be a major headache for Labour in Scotland as they also have to defend Speaker Martin's Glasgow seat. While having the first Livingston by election on the same day as the Scottish Parliament Cathcart by-election split the Nationalist effort, the climate was very different then."

She does have a point. During Glasgow East and Glenrothes by elections I've seen the SNP by election nest of ants (like this anagram) in motion. It is a reminder of full blooded Lib Dem campaigns like Dunfermline and West Fife and elsewhere that I have been to. Ok apart from having a marquee where activists appear to hang around the HQ. Or is it just me that gets sent out again once I have restocked on snacks and been to the toilet?

However, I'm sure Labour have to. They have in their hands the writ for any Labour held seat by election (that included the speaker's Glasgow North East). So may there be a prompting to get Devine to stand aside now so that they can run two campaigns in the hope that two clean untarnished Labour candidates (if they can be found) can contest the two seats in the hope of defending at least one if not both of them, in the hope of retaining at least one of the new breed of post expenses MP.

Yeah the political landscape may have changed since 2005 and the SNP juggernaut may well think they have a chance even with split resources of taking on all comers (though I'd love to throw a Lib Dem spanner in the works). But is it a risk, a spin of the dice, an electioneering coup that a Labour party strategist may be looking at pulling off the shelf....sorry couldn't resist that pun.

We live in interesting times.

The Media and Glenrothes

A few days ago I got a ressponse to my letter to STV and Ofcom, but due to being too busy actually with the election I didn't get around to tell you, my readers that. As I expected when I wrote the thing they would hide behind the defence that because the writ had not been moved they were not bound at the time to give balance.

However, looking at last night's result the early nod from the media to only two parties in this race are STV complicit in the squeeze that resulted in both the Lib Dems and Tories losing their deposits. If Jim Parker the Scottish Senior Citizens' Unity Party candidate can accuse the parties of starting the campaign shortly after John MacDougall was buried, he ignores that fact that at least in the case of two of us we were already fighting the perception that the press were putting about that it was only about two parties. Two be honest of what I had seen and heard of the two candidates for Labour and the Nats they weren't the best men for the job, indeed hearing Lindsay Roy too much in the early hours of Friday morning, while waiting beside the A92, even he seems to think so.

The Nats last night claimed a positive campaign, well seeing the attacks on daily of their literature I find that hard to believe they can say that with a straight face.

I'll dig out some example later and do an update.

But if balance in election coverage in the printed press is battling to get into the final paragraphs of their coverage, which the Tories seemed to fail to do more than us, then we need to look at the rules for coverage of elections more carefully. Yes there is the letter of the regulations but the spirit of them can be breached before the campaign even gets underway and can affect the battle and the outcome ahead.

Delusional Nats, Labour and the Press

How did they all get it so wrong?

I just have to say how come the SNP or Labour observing the same box openings as us could have been so wide off the mark. Many of the Nats either in the Blogosphere or on the street were confident of the result going their way. But to be so far out what went wrong.

The SNP were still adamant that they had it and Labour were less certain. If what I've heard is correct Newsnight at one point called last nights result for the Nats. Various of the bloggers and the MSM blogs picked up on this vibe even citing Brian Taylor. However, it wasn't what I or my fellow Lib Dems were seeing.

Maybe it had something to do with the over complications of their tally sheets. Mike Russell at 10:45 that he was "cautiously optimistic", Labour shortly after were saying "It's too close to call. We haven't had the bundles yet." However, by this time I didn't recorded the Nats ahead in any box that I was looking at nor did my nearest colleagues. Indeed as the initial surge of activity ended not one of us could recall any major SNP dominance. Yet the Nats were still adamantly proclaiming "Yes we can", yes we have and yes we will in the media section that was over my shoulder. More strangely the press and Labour were also believing them.

Yet the big two with all their canvass work and the press got it dramatically wrong 6,737 votes wrong approximately 19% wrong. I'll happily put my trust in the Lib Dem predictors and reading of events on the ground thank you very much. Much less hype, much more accurate. Even if it does mean you enter the last few days trying to get enough vote out to save a deposit that is lost, rather that heading for the tape as elsewhere in Fife.