Eight "Labour" Candidates does this mean the time for NI Lib Dems to stand? #ae16

Firstly I must say I am writing this in a personal capacity and not in my role as Chair of Northern Ireland Liberal Democrats, that it why it is being blogged her and not on the NI Lib Dems website. The reason for this is that there are differing opinions with the NI Lib Dems and the Federal Constitution does stipulate that until the local party decides otherwise and brings a constitutional amendment before conference we cannot stand candidates.

One thing that strikes me about the list of candidates for the NI Assembly elections for 2016 is that 8 of the 18 constituencies have a Northern Ireland Labour Representation Committee member standing. There are also 10 constituencies where you can vote for the Conservatives.

While the latter are recognised by the national party, I understand that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland was actually out canvassing with my local Conservative Candidate this afternoon. The former of course were recently not formally allowed to stand by the national executive of the Labour party, they appear to have done so anyway.

Political anoraks may be aware that the name Labour Representation Committee was the names used from 1900 until after the 1906 election by a group of candidates and activists that have since become the Labour Party. As far back as late 2010-11 when I was running the referendum campaign I became aware of the fact that Labour Party Members in Northern Ireland were looking at standing candidates for the Assembly elections and that they aimed to do this by 2016. I would appear that in eight seats they have managed to achieve this.

I have also noted that in his first speech as Deputy Prime Minister to a Liberal Democrat Conference in Autumn 2010 that Nick Clegg he intended for the party to stand in every seat in the Westminster election in 2015. Of course we didn't do that we didn't stand in any of the 18 Northern Ireland seats nor did we oppose the speaker seeking re-election.

Now I know that there are many in the Alliance who would consider themselves to be Liberal Democrats, some indeed would tend to vote that way if they life in the rest of the UK, some of course are dual members. There are others, most famously Naomi Long who after the 2010 election said she was not a Liberal Democrat and would not be taking the Lib Dem whip through that parliament, who would not.

I also know there are members within the Northern Ireland Liberal Democrats who do see the need to stand for elections in Northern, who think we should continue to throw our all behind the Alliance. Others raise issues about how we would be able to fund it, would be have enough supporters to run it etc.

As for the fact of raising the level of membership and funding I have watched with interest the increase in activity of the Northern Ireland Labour Party over the last 5 years. They have expressed their desire to seek election, to stand up for a normalisation of politics and not stand on sectarian lines, something that some of their members see support of the SDLP and maintaining.

I have also for a number of years watch the Alliance fudge issues that would for a liberal be a matter of principle. But when one of the tenets of your existence is merely to be non-sectarian some of the Liberalism that the Northern Ireland Liberal party once stood  for, before the return of Direct Rule and formation of Alliance in the 1970s, is not in main reason for being.

People have often asked me why I don't stand here in Northern Ireland for the Alliance Party. The reason you most often here is "I am too liberal for them". Many of the Alliance representatives will tell you that I challenge them a lot on what I see as logical liberal steps long before they have come to a party position on them. Reading twitter in light of the recent abortion debate I think there is a large section of Northern Irish society that is now too liberal for most of the Northern Irish parties as well. It looks like I am not alone, it looks like there is a liberal heartland out there that has survived and is starting to rear its head as the Northern Irish parties continue to get bogged down with the politics of division so much that they fail to deal with everyday issues. Or one side or the other will attempt to block them despite it not being a sectarian matter.

The Conservative stepped up in the 1980s, Labour are stepping up in 2016, is it time as Liberal Democrats to consider standing up for the liberals that do exist in Northern Ireland and give them a real liberal voice for the future?

Reminder this article though written by the current chair of Northern Ireland Liberal Democrats is written in a personal capacity and does not reflect the opinion of Northern Ireland Liberal Democrats or the Liberal Democrats.

Never before in the history of Northern Irish politics...part 4

...have women secured more first preferences than men in the European seat.

Despite only have 4 of the 10 candidates women broke through a certain glass ceiling in last week's European election in Northern Ireland for the first time they secured more first preference votes than the men.

In 1979 there was only one female candidate Bernadette McAliskey who was standing as an independent republican. Her 33,969 (5.94%) was enough to see her survive the first three stages before she was eliminated, there were twelve men against her in those first elections.

Five years later in 1984 men took 100% of the votes as there were no women among the eight candidates.

In 1989 there was again a sole lady, Myrtle Boal was standing for the Conservatives and secured 25,789 (4.82%) of the first preferences there were nine men against her five secured more votes than her. She was also the first woman not to be eliminated, but then this was an election that the surplus of the stage one winner elected the final seat on stage two and nobody was excluded.

1994 saw Myrtle joined on the ballot by Mary Clark-Glass (Alliance), Dodie McGuinness (one of three Sinn Féin candidates), June Champion (Independent) and Susannah Thompson (one of three Natural Law candidates). It was the most congested Northern Irish European ballot so far with 17 candidates. Between them the five women won 47,477 (8.48%) votes.

However, after the high of five female candidates there were none again in 1999 when 8 men filled the ballot.

In 2004 women returned to the ballot and one of them was to make a little history. Bairbre de Brún (Sinn Féin) was to become the first female Northern Irish MEP she was joined on the ballot by Lindsay Whitcroft (Green). The two secured as record 119,351 (21.73%) first preferences for women.

2009 was to see another ground breaking result with two of the three seats being won by women. Diane Dodds (DUP) was to join de Brún in Brussels but they were the only two women amongst the 7 candidates. Bairbre de Brún was also the first woman to top the poll as between them they secured 214,530 (44.27%) of the first preferences.

Which brings us to this year de Brún had been replaced as Sinn Féin candidate by Martina Anderson, along with Dodds they took the top two spots after first preferences. Anna Lo (Alliance) was 6th and Tina McKenzie (NI21) completed the quartet. Between them their 345,961 votes was greater than the 6 men they stood against who got 285,164. So in the 2014 European Election here in Northern women secured 55.25% of the first preferences from the 626,125 valid votes.

Never in the history of Northern Irish politics...part 3

...have the pick three not dominated in European quota collection.

Many have passed comment on the length of time this European election has taken. But unlike in previous elections no candidate or pair of candidates has dominated enough in first preferences to make the transfer of their surplus more or less decide the election.

In 1979 Ian Paisley was elected on first preferences of 1.19 quotas, John Hume was second on 0.98 quotas and was swiftly elected with the exclusion of the various independent and smaller nationalist/republican votes in the third stage. The UUP actually had 0.87 of a quota in the first round but this was split between two candidates which had them sitting 3rd and 4th on first preferences and it wasn't until his running mate Harry West's vote pushed John Taylor over the quota.

In other words the big three had 3.04 quotas between them.

In 1984 Paisley sailed in with 1.34 quotas and the UUP putting up just one candidate this time also saw John Taylor in with 1.08 quota on first preferences. Hume for the SDLP was slightly further away this time with 0.88 of a quota, but was soon elected no the fourth stage with the exclusion of Alliance and UPUP.

However, the three who got elected had ensured that 3.3 quotas were theirs from first preference.

1989 saw Paisley in first with 1.20 quotas and Hume also sneaked in on first preference with 1.02. Jim Nicholson replacing Taylor on the UUP ticket was on 0.89 which was close enough to see him elected on the transfers of Paisley's surplus at stage 2. Between then the 3.11 was enough to ensure they were all elected without the elimination of another candidate.

In 1994 Paisley and Hume again sailed through on first preferences with 1.17 and 1.16 of a quota respectively. Nicholson was just under with 0.95, but once again it was enough for his election on the surplus of Paisley. The 3.28 quotas was just behind the peak of 1984 for centralising the vote within the big three.

Paisley's last European election in 1999 saw him once again top the poll with 1.14 quota. Hume also facing his last Euro electorate also was safely in with 1.12 and Nicholson posted at the time the poorest showing for one the big three with only 0.70 of a quota. It was still a respectable 2.96 of a quota. The elimination of all four of the lowest candidates made it a two person run off for the last seat, but it was only when Paisley's surplus was distributed in stage 3 that Nicholson was elected.

In 2004 we saw new faces for all but the UUP of the big four.But Jim Allister then still with the DUP carried on the Paisley legacy securing 1.27 of a quota to be elected top, Sinn Féin's Bairbre de Brún was also over the threshold with 1.05 of a quota. Nicholson faired worse still with only 0.66 of a quota which meant that the Allister surplus didn't see him over the line but the elimination of all bar the SDLP candidate did.

The top three parties were still polling 2.98 quotas. But there had been a shift in the nationalist vote and now the SDLP found themselves just behind the UUP in 4th.

Last time out in 2004 was the first time after 4 cycles that only person achieved the quota on first preferences. It was Bairbre de Brún who managed it with 1.04 of a quota a drop in the share she had last time. Nicholson rallied slightly to 0.68 but Diane Dodds replacing the defected Jim Allister only secured 0.73 enough to be ahead of the UUP but the DUP's worst ever showing in the European elections. The reason for this was the 0.54 that Allister himself secured for his new TUV party.

However, the net result was the that big three only had 2.45 quotas between then and only 0.04 of a surplus from first preferences. However, elimination of the Green and Alliance for stage 2, followed by the TUV in stage three soon saw the UCU-NF candidate safely over the threshold, and Dodds deemed elected due to the small surpluses not being enough to get the SDLP above her.

Which leads to this year, Martina Anderson of Sinn Féin was elected first round but with only 1.02 of a quota the smallest winning quota ever in Northern Irish European elections. Diane Dodds improved to 0.84 but Nicholson only just sneaked over half a quota on 0.53, the SDLP weren't far off with 0.52.

It meant that the three largest parties had dipped even further down to 2.39 and the battle was entered to secure almost double their first preference between the UUP and SDLP. Allister for the TUV had 0.48 of it and would not be eliminated until stage 7 and the three non-designated parties (Alliance, Grenn, NI21) had 0.42 of their quota their highest ever. This is why the election went so deep, there wasn't masses of other naturally unionist votes to be transferred until a late stage.

Never in the history of Northern Irish politics...Part 2

...have the Alliance votes transferred so poorly to unionist candidates.

In 1979 the Alliance candidate was eliminated after the election of John Hume SDLP elected after stage 3 and all the last Independent nationalist Bernadette McAliskey who was eliminated at stage 4 so we have no idea how else the Alliance vote would have transferred.

In 1984 Alliance were eliminated along with UPUP candidate Jim Kilfedder but the only parties left after their elimination were SDLP and Sinn Fein so it is impossible again to guage the split in preference.

In 1989 we didn't get to the elimination stage and with DUP and SDLP elected on stage one the Paisley surplus was sufficient to elect Jim Nicholson UUP. The same thing happened in 1994.

In 1999 there was an option as to where the Alliance vote may have transferred to. At the time of elimination Sean Neeson had 14,391 votes. But he was eliminated as the same time as the PUP, UKUP and Natural Law candidates. Jim Nicholson UUP and Mitchell McLaughlin Sinn Féin were both left. But as only 1709 went to Sinn Féin and even if all of these had been from Neeson was only 11.87% of his vote.Over 50% of the Alliance vote that would have transferred therefore would have gone UUP assuming that 33% was non transferable.

In 2004 there was no Alliance candidate as they along with the Workers Party, Conservative and Labour parties were backing John Gilliland the outgoing President of the Ulster Farmers' Union.

To complicate matters in 2009 once again the Alliance were eliminated at the same time as another party. This time it was the Greens. Combined they transferred 38.44% to the SDLP but 43.78% to UCUNF, DUP and TUV unionist candidates. The Alliance had the bigger share of those transfers with 62.88% of the combined total that was reallocated.

That leads to this week, Anna Lo was eliminated by herself in stage 6. 44.58% of her vote went to the SDLP with UUP, DUP and TUV still in play. The unionists got only 21.25% of her vote.

Hypothesis 1

Taking this back to 2004 it would have equated to the SDLP getting 11,903 votes off Alliance of the 16,325, but would have left 23,012 votes to go of which 15,764 would have been a totally transferable Green vote. For the sake of argument let's assume that they did all transfer that leaves 4,422 Green votes left to fill up the SDLP vote and 11, 342 going to unionism. That would still result in 7,248 Alliance votes that could go unionist but even that is 27.15% of the Alliance transfers.

Clearly there would not have been 100% transferable votes from the Greens. Therefore there has to be an even bigger reduction in the proportion of Alliance votes than the mere 6% that this hypothetical scenario shows.

Hypothesis 1b

Lets assume that a universal 17.77% of non transferables for both parties (7,548 of the 42,463 combined was actually non transferable) of those Green votes were non-transferable, this would come off the resultant unionist vote. It would mean 8540 of their votes go to unionism, leaving 10,050 of Alliances vote or 37.64% heading to unionists.

Hypothesis 2

The Green Party candidate Ross Brown was eliminated at stage 4 along with NI21's Tina McKenzie. Their combined vote of 21900.53 at the time of elimination saw 8661.10 going to Alliance to we discount that  to leave 13,239.43.

Of that 3107 (23.46%) went nationalist and 5809 went unionist (43.87%)

Applying that to their 2009 vote 3,699 votes went nationalist and 6,916 unionist.

The impact this would have on 2009 would be that 12,626 (47.29%) Alliance votes were nationalist and 11,674 (43.62%) unionist at a 91% transferability rate.

As it is I suspect that the Green vote would have had a higher proportion of nationalists to NI21 which means that the proportion of Alliance votes going Unionist would actually have been higher in 2009.

The Alliance has for a while not transferred toward DUP in large numbers and as a by product TUV. But has been relatively happy to go UUP. However, this time that has not been the case.

The reasons are pretty clear. The outright attack on Naomi Long even before the vote in Belfast City Council on flag and the lack of timely or outright condemnation of the attack on Alliance party office or elected reps homes that resulted from the Unionists. There is also the issues of equality on which the UUP have been as intolerant as DUP but the SDLP and Sinn Féin more liberal. This could be borne out by those who campaigned for equal marriage saying if your not prepared to vote for us and ours you'll not get our vote.

As I also said there was 17.8% non transferable from Alliance and Greens in 2009, but 33% non transferable on this occasion. So even those that would not transfer to SDLP have not transferred to unionism.

Hardline unionism may well benefit them in FPTP Westminster elections (providing they work on the pacts) but it is damaging the unionists on getting transfers from Alliance in other elections in Northern Ireland.

The issue with messaging and the messenger

First off let me just say I am still IN! Yes in my sporran are still Euros from a train trip I took the other weekend down to Dublin to the seen the finish of the Giro d'Italia's visit to Ireland. I'm also glad that for the first 10 years that I lived in Scotland I worked in a job that would not have existed here were it not for freedom of movement across Europe allowing us to operate a pan European, multi-language contact centre all under the one roof. I'm pleased that unlike five years ago we were able to talk about European issues on the doorsteps or phones, unlike last time when we were overshadowed by the expenses excesses of MPs.

However, while the message in principle was good the general public didn't get it, or didn't want to listen. Why?

Go back four years and what was the mantra we were shouting out, what was our hashtag. Then it was #IagreewithNick yes on the back of it being said in the first leader's debate we turned it into a personality cult. Is it any wonder that four years later after not delivering on a number of issues that voters did agree with Nick on that they no longer agree with him. But it goes further than that, they not only no longer agree with him but they no longer trust him, and as a result they no longer listen to what he has to say.

It didn't take long for me to realise that we had a trust problem. In the lead up to the 2011 Scottish elections I got a lt of correspondence from people who had voted for me in 2010 and some even in 2005. Some of it said that while they still trusted me they would only vote Lib Dem if I was standing. As you imagine I replied back and in the run up to the election personally vouched for the Lib Dem candidates in my area to everyone who had contacted me.

Then we have also had the other mantra that where we work, we win. But this has been twisted a little bit this weekend into there are areas that we hold and have worked hard and maintained. The implication in saying this is that others have not been working hard, pounding the streets, delivering leaflets, knocking on doors, ringing the phones. Of course that is just not true. So there is now a disconnect between HQ and those who for months, years and decades have been carrying out the work for the party.

The leadership even last night was dismissing the number of signatories on the LibDems4Change letter. Paddy Ashdown said on Sunday Politics that there were more people who liked Lib Dem Friends of Cake than had signed the letter. Well Lib Dem Friends of Cake joined Facebook at Conference in 2011, indeed the day after my birthday, after a discussion in the conference bar. It took two and a half years to reach 360 likes*, the letter at time of writing is now equal to that in a little over 3 days.


However, while there was focus on one of two of those who had signed the letter who may no longer be party members the spokespeople ignore something that the Guardian pointed out:

"include 45 sitting Councillors, two council group leaders and 33 former Councillors, including one former council leader. [Five] prospective parliamentary candidates, 22 former parliamentary candidates and seven chairs of local parties are also signatories."

As this was the figures from this mornings print edition these were some of those first 200 or so that the leadership were dismissing.

In other words you are talking about the hard working and committed members of the party, many of whom are used to getting people's response on the doorsteps and phones or unsolicited through emails and social media from their constituents and local residents over many years. They are also highly likely to have been at the special conference in 2010 to vote in favour of the Coalition Agreement. These are people who face the public daily from outside the Westminster bubble.

Now I know that there are many within my party and circle of friends who disagree with me, but as we entered the election on the catch phrase I agree with Nick, but that message is still remembered but no longer resonates with many of those who voted for us we have an issue. The issue is the messenger, it concerns me the number of times in the last four years I have heard I'll not vote Lib Dem again until you have a new leader and this has been borne out in poll, after poll, after poll.

Yes there are exceptions and well done to all of those who have bucked the trend, but we should not dig into our trenches, we should be a party leading the advance and walking into the sound of gunfire. But at the moment the bullet in our own guns, our message, is not having the impact because those in the field are not prepared to listen to the message as they don't agree with the main messenger. They don't agree with Nick.

It is sad, but having seen the reactions over the last few days I think many of us know that something needs to be done.

I think the reaction of Eamon Gilmore Ireland's DPM and leader of the junior coalition partner this afternoon to losing half his vote down to 7%, losing all three of his MEPs and many of his councillors was telling. It had parallels to the situation the Liberal Democrats faced but he realised it was time for him to go, although it seems he was persuaded by his parliamentary colleagues. But he also said "Where we have done well we must built on that, where we have not we much look at that." This is only part of that he said but it is in marked contrast to what our own leaders are saying ie nothing needs to change.

I know that many fellow Lib Dems will not agree with this and that is your right. But can we please stop hurling personal insults at each other over this disagreement in direction from here on.

* They have since added about another 90 thanks to Paddy's publicity.

DUP seeking to disempower voters by limiting choice

During the election campaign we heard the DUP leadership complaining about the split vote in unionism. For these elections that would have less impact as both our councils and European elections are determined by STV. However, as soon as these elections are over what do we learn but that the DUP are in discussions about forming an electoral pact with the UUP ahead of next year's Westminster elections.

They have only themselves to blame however. Three years ago they came out very strongly against the use of the Alternative Vote (AV) in Westminster elections indeed they viewed the referendum as an "unnecessary additional cost", while calling on other issues to be put to a referendum. They also said that AV "does not treat all votes equally and will further disempower voters by increasing the likelihood of hung parliaments". They also joined the rhetoric about deals being done behind closed doors as a result of those hung parliaments, but they appear to have no qualms about making those deals before the voter even has a say.

Is is this second statement that I want to look at. They said that AV would disempower voters, but as I said at the time when I was running the Northern Ireland Yes to Fairer Votes campaign the unionists themselves often disempower voters by forming their electoral pacts in seats.

Not every voter who votes for a unionist politician is going to support every other unionist politician and there are various reasons for this:

1. They may not agree with them on their stance of working with Ireland and/or Sinn Féin

This was particularly true in the early days of devolution. Indeed I know I wasn't the only person who refused to give a preference in the first Assembly elections to those parties or individuals who were opposed to the Agreement. That meant that the DUP didn't get a vote from me and others, also some individuals within the UUP also did not get my preference for their equally vehement opposition.

2. They may not agree with them on a specific issue

There are some hardline stances that the DUP take that the UUP allow as matters of conscious. These are common in the areas of LGBT legislation and abortion. There will be others but these are headline issues. On the former we know that some UUP individuals have been more in favour of LGBT equality and that is something that voters will be able to ask their candidates at the time of election and may well determine how they would vote.

However, if the two largest Unionist parties form a pact they take away the power of the individual voter in whatever seat they live in to make their own mind up about which of the two they prefer. Those people's votes have not been treated equally. They may be unable to vote unionist if they also disagree with the TUV who are likely to run a full slate or other smaller unionist parties if they have that option.

On the issue of same-sex marriage for example take away a supportive UUP option and the only way a voter might be able to express an unionist opinion would be if the PUP were to stand as they are the only unionist party to have adopted a policy in favour. No offense to the PUP but their chances of being elected are considerably less than most UUP candidates and certainly all DUP candidates would be. Therefore that person who wants to vote unionist but wants to show support for such an issue would find that their vote is not treated equally.

The DUP seem to think that all unionists don't care who they vote for as long as they can vote for a unionist. That of course is not the case and is making assumptions of the electorate. Also if they were to enter a pact with the UUP they would surely have to give up one or two of the safe unionist seats, which currently bar North Down the DUP hold exclusively, to make the offer enticing. So which of the DUP MPs is prepared to give up their seat for this electoral pact to work? Because if they only offer the UUP candidates in SDLP and Sinn Féin facing seats there would be nothing in it for the UUP.

Of course we all know the one seat that the DUP really want a pact with the UUP for. The crown in their view and the thorn in their flesh when they lost it in 2010. A seat they have tried to do everything to undermine the party that has held it since then, a party that they said was dead in the area but that this week's election results have proven is not the case.

So I conclude the DUP are prepared to disempower voters and limit their choice for their own petty political ends. That is not democracy that is despotic in behaviour.

How not to doorstep a voter #147

So the doorbell rang and I opened it.

The person on the other side of the door said "Eugh! You're one of those."

I asked, "One of those what?"

"One of those perverts." came the reply.

I looked down and checked my fly was done up. It was. It was then that I noticed my t-shirt. It was one of my Pride ones. The female person who had rung our doorbell had quickly jumped to conclusions.

Thinking quickly I would have said, "Sorry, I have to go about my gay agenda for today, breakfast to be made (I had actually already had it), then I have my bible to read, lunch to eat, then this afternoon it is off to the bowls, back home for tea and then a little Saturday night TV. Now I know I don't look old enough to have been playing bowls for 35 years but if it is perversion of that nature then I pray you'll bear in mind that I play on council greens down in Ward Park and the person you are seeking to get elected will have responsibility for providing for my perversion. It is the least you can do as I do not appear to be equal under the law nor for such consideration by your party.

"Thank you for making your feelings abundantly clear. Now let me see what you are going to tell me so I can gauge just how near the bottom of my preferences I will actually place your candidates."

The hand proffered me two pieces of glossy paper one for Diane Dodds the other other for Leslie and Graham, before a red faced person turned on her heel and made her way unto one of my neighbours.

Read also: Not the first time I've encountered homophobia during election time, but last time I was the candidate.

The Votes are in

It is that time of year that internal party elections kick in from local party, through regional parties to the various organisations that party members are part of. So amongst the various ballot papers I have received was the one that my name actually appeared on.

This morning LGBT+ Lib Dems have officially announced the results of the election of their new committee for 2014. I'm glad to say that along with Wales' Rodney Berman, I have been elected unto a committee that truly covers the whole of the UK.

New chair Ed on left with outgoing chair Adrian

The new chair to succeed the great work that Adrian Trett has done over the last 3½ years will be Ed Fordham who had helped to plan the vigil outside the Houses of Parliament during the debates on equal marriage earlier in the year.

Holly Matthies and Jen Yockney were returned unopposed as Secretary and Treasurer respectively. The rest of the new general committee are Zoe O'Connell, Dave Page, Sarah Brown, Paul Trollope, Nicholas Coombes, Gina Dungworth and Lee Dargue.

I already know that Ed is looking to engage more with the non-English parts of LGBT+ and having Rodney and myself on the exec committee is going to make that process earlier. 

However, I do know that there are LGBT members and supporters in both Scotland and Northern Ireland who are not currently members of the organisation. For just £20 standard, £5 unwaged, £30 two members at the same address it is well worth it to ensure that the party that has been at the forefront of so much LGBT equality continues to be ahead of Labour and the Conservatives on knowing the issues and working out the solutions. You can join online today and be a part of it.

Lembit, Brent Central and women only short lists

Back in the real world. Well the one where I no longer am looking at how I can get called to speak in a debate at party conference I have decided to handle the three big issues that Lib Dems have been discussing since they emerged into the Glasgow sunshine (where had that been all week) inspired by Nick Clegg's words.

The first I'd heard rumours of from within the SECC was that Lembit Öpik has written that he is considering throwing his hat into the ring for Brent Central. But in an article in which he decries dissent at party conference (I was there, there was some from the floor) and a fall in membership turning up (did anyone spot Lembit himself) it seems a bit much.

But Lembit standing for Brent Central fails to address another problem within our party the lack of female MPs.Ed Davey has said that the party should revisit the issue of women only short lists after the 2015 election to resolve that issue. 

Now women only shortlists work for Labour and their A-list partially worked for the Conservatives (although anyone remember A-lististo Louise Mensch) because they have something Lib Dems don't have in abundance; safe seats. I also think Ed is a bit premature in deciding what the party does after 2015, that is the year that our leadership programme is having its first test at, simultaneously at the same time as the party is having its first test as a party of Government. 

So where does all this leave us as Lib Dems?

Well frankly to deal with Lembit considering stepping back in Westminster I'm minded to make Brent Central a women only short list, but I fear that may not be enough to stop Lembit and he will announce he is going to transition. 

Footnote: The author in no way endorses the use of women only short-lists, does all he can to encourage good women candidates to become MPs, even being a member of Liberal Democrat Women. Now does he endorse using a method to stifle local party democracy merely to blog 'troublesome' candidates. This is a satirical piece based around real issues, it appears that some readers less familiar with my style and believes have been confused.

SDLP elect new leader

The second UK political party leadership election result of the week was announced earlier today in Belfast. The SDLP were replacing Margaret Ritchie after just 19 months with a man, this is not me being sexist but a reality that there were only male candidates in the contest for party leader.

There were 348 votes cast, making the quota for election of 175.

In the first round

Alex Attwood 46
Connall McDevitt 105
Alasdair McDonnell 127
Patsy McGlone 70

Alex Attwood eliminated


2nd Round: Transfer of Attwood's 46 votes

Connall McDevitt 131 (+26)
Alasdair McDonnell 140 (+13)
Patsy McGlone 76 (+6)

non-transferable 1

Patsy McGlone eliminated


3rd Round: Transfer of McGlone's 76 votes

Connall McDevitt 152 (+21)
Alasdair McDonnell 188 (+48)

non-transferable 7

Alasdair McDonnell elected with vote exceeding quota

Alasdair McDonnell the MP and MLA for South Belfast was therefore elected to be the new leader of the SDLP.

Before Margaret Ritchie announced she was resigning she said that she did not feel it was possible to be an MP, MLA and leader of the party, but at the time she said such triple jobbing was 'a fully justifiable position'. The issue of double (triple) jobbing is one that the people of Northern Ireland find themselves in the largely unique position of finding their politicians in. The election of another double jobber as leader makes it hard to see how any of the big parties are going to break the double (triple) jobbing culture. Only the Alliance and Greens have effectively removed double jobbing from their ranks. The election of a new leader doing two jobs one at Stormont and one at Westminster by the SDLP makes it hard to see how the parties are going to get out of the two jobs mentality.

Seven go for President

The news this evening that Dana Scallon and David Norris had both secured the support of four councils means that there will be seven candidates for the Irish Presidency.

Dana was the first of the final two to acquire the support of four councils before the 12 noon deadline on Wednesday. With the support of Carlow, Roscommon, Donegal and Offaly county councils. Norris still seeking to be the first openly gay president of Ireland secured the support of his fourth council Dublin City late this evening to add to Laois, Fingal and Waterford. Cork had refused to support him earlier.

They join the five already nominated Fine Gael's Gay Mitchell, Labour's Michael D Higgins, Sinn Féin's Martin McGuinness and two independents, Mary Davis and Seán Gallagher. Labour and Sinn Féin nominated their candidates from their Oireachtas relatively smoothly. However, Fine Gael's selection of Mitchell ahead of more popular Mairaed McGuinness and leadership choice Pat Cox, he is not showing well in the polls despite Fine Gael topping the poll in February's elections.

Mary Davis had secured the nomination of 13 councils including Kerry, Limerick, Louth, Mayo, Monaghan and Tipperary North. While Gallagher had the support of Leitrim, Meath and Clare County Councils and Cork City Council.

It means that the three independent council nomiated candidates Davis, Gallagher, Scallon and Norris will take on the figureheads of three of the four major parties Mitchell, Higgins and McGuinness. Although McGuinness is not running under the Sinn Féin banner but as an independent under the banner of "The People's President" having been nominated by the 14 Sinn Féin TDs and 3 Senators plus some independent members to get over the 20 required.

The election will be held on 27 October and is an instant run off, or really an AV election.

Comhghairdeas Ard-Mhéara Béal Feirste

The last time I saw the newly elected Lord Mayor of Belfast Niall Ó Donnghaile was at the verification process for the East Belfast votes on May 6th. I was in Newtownards for the Yes! campaign and it was a veritable who's who of local poliltics who stopped by to chat to me that day.

On of them was fellow Tweeter and Blogger Niall, he was one of a number of mini tweet ups that were happening that day. So many of  the political activists who tweet follow each other but in the heat of campaigning we rarely get to meet up apart from the stage managed events or at hustings. Of course on the day after the election we all are concerned but our own little piles of papers but there is very little you can do but stand around and observe once the verification process is out of the way.

As a pupil of Regent House in the town, less than 5 minutes from the Leisure Centre which was the count centre talking in a group with a someone about to be elected as a DUP Councillor and the next Sinn Féin Lord Mayor of Belfast, but that is what happened that day.

Therefore I want to say Comhghairdeas Niall. I hope that you year with the Mayoral chain of office is good for all of the people of Belfast/Béal Feirste.

13 Lords Rebelling - or muscle flexing in Ermine

Thirteen Lib Dem Lords rebelled yesterday in a vote to overturn the Conservative Party's plans to bring in elected police and crime commissioners. The election of commissioners would have led to an abolition of the police authorities that cuurently act as oversight on our police.

The Lib Dem manifesto last year had this to say on given the public a say over policing.

• Give local people a real say over their police force through the direct election of police authorities. Authorities would still be able to co-opt extra members to ensure diversity, experience and expertise.
•  Give far more power to elected police authorities, including the right to sack and appoint the Chief Constable, set local policing priorities,and agree and determine budgets.

While we wanted elections it was to the police authorities not to one individual commissioner who would have overall say and swat over what the electorate would do. Liberal Democrats do believe in power to the people, while me may have failed in delivering it with electoral reform our peers seem not prepared to standby to see it taken away over policing matter.

Maybe underneath the ermine lined robes our Lordships and Ladyships have been working those Lib Dem muscles.

Although apparently they did so against the instruction of the newly install Lib Dem fitness coach Nick Clegg, who had asked them to support another amendment that would have led to a three year moratorium while pilots were being held.

My new MLAs -how they got there and what it means #ndo11 #ae11

I was sitting around near the North Down Alliance team, augmented by Brian Wilson and the DUP's Peter Weir as they accumulated their tallies on Friday morning after verification.

Even then it was clear that Peter along with his party colleagues Alex Easton and Gordon Dunne were going to get elected. Stephen Farry of the Alliance also looked safe it was a matter of where the other two seats would go. The UUP were looking like they didn't have a full quota (4015 is turned out) between them, the two independent Alans, McFarland, the former UUP MLA looking to be returned now he was independent, and Chambers. Or would the Alliance manage to get a second in with Anne Wilson or would the Green's manage to replace her husband with Steven Agnew.

It was all tense stuff. The main concern was how the DUP transfers would go. A lot of DUP papers appeared to have just 1,2,3 and no further preference but others did transfer. The other thing was how would the independent Unionist votes transfer and most worryingly for the UUP would they still be in the race if one of the independents got eliminated.

The breakdown of the results was:

DUP 3 candidates 3.1 quotas
Alliance 2 candidates 1.3 quotas
UUP 2 candidates 0.7 quotas
Green 1candidate 0.55 quotas
Alan McFarland 0.46 quotas
Alan Chambers 0.44 quotas

Others 3 candidates (SDLP, UKIP, Sinn Féin) 0.42 quotas

It was going to be tight. Agnew was just 107 first preferences ahead of Anne Wilson to come 5th. But that once the DUP managed to get there three in on one on the first round and the other two on the allocation of Easton's surplus in the second round it was the unionist block of 1.6 quotas that made it unlikely that both Wilson and Agnew would make it. So although it was unclead which unionist made it as well there was a fight on for the sixth seat between the Alliance and Greens and it was going to be tight. Problem for me now was that it looked like my top three preferences were going to only secure two seats.

When both the Alans were eliminated it pushed Leslie Cree over the quota securing the UUP one seat and then it was down to his surplus. The transfer of that ended up giving Agnew the edge maintaining a Green representative at Stormont.

However, it does throw up interesting permitations for the Executive. The UUP are on 16 seats they secured Cree's seat from 9th place in the first preferences. Though you are not going to get me suddenly defending First Past the post that saw DUP 1,2,3, Alliance 4 and 6 with Greens 5. If Anne Wilson had of won her seat that would have been 9 Alliance. Therefore under D'Hondt the second UUP seat (the final seat to be allocated*). Eight the half of the UUP seats (having already secured one minister) will be equal to the 8 seats held by the Alliance. The tie break is votes again divided as by D'Hondt. There the UUP's 87, 531 is divided by 2 making 43,765 again less than the Alliance's 50,875, therefore earning David Ford another seat.

The UUP are however flirting with David McClarty the former deputy speaker and member of their party who stood as an independent after failing to be selected in East Londonderry. He managed to get 73 first preferences more than the two UUP candidates and get re-elected where either of them failed to do. But this is a case of where the people did have a option of voting for an official party candidate and didn't do so. What would have happened in North Down if instead of Cree getting in another former UUP MLA Alan McFarland had got elected, would it then have been them that they were courting. Or what if Wilson and McFarland had got in instead of Cree and Agnew this would all have just been a series of what ifs in the final rounds of counting in Newtownards on Saturday that would have been eventually forgotten.

* The order will be DUP, Sinn Féin, DUP, UUP, SF, SDLP, DUP, SF, DUP, Alliance

We have a mountain to reclimb

My friend Craig Harrow was being philospohical this morning and remembered this quote from the great Libearal and Lib Dem, Russell Johnson.

"You can stand at the bottom of a mountain, look up and say: "This is so high and precipitous, so rugged and intimidating that I can never dare to challange it." Or, you can begin to climb. And, if you do, one day you may see the summit. And if you do not, its peak will be forever hidden in the mists of vanished opportunity. Today we can begin to climb..."

Last May as Liberal Democrats we appeared to have reached that summit. But as any mountaineer will tell you occassionally you reach a false peak. The edge of what is a plateau and when you scale that you realise that there is still a further propably more difficult and steeper summit to climb.

We as Liberal Democrats may well have climbed that false peak. It was a hard climb and making that last step unto that peak was a hard decision. We were looking for a foothold, and maybe we slipped in finding it a few times. However we are roped together as a party. We are an experience set of climbers, none of us have reached a summit easily and we all know the hard work that is needed. It mean going door to door persuading people that we do share their values as well as their fears. That we have the solutions and the ways forward.

What we have taken on in the last year has been a  very precarious part of the climb. We are still the same climbers as we were 12 months ago. Some admitted have left the summit party, some of the support team have felt let down and fled. We know the goal we have in sight. We know we still have a way to go to get to a truly liberal UK.

But as we press on, like Hilary and Tensing to scale Everest the first time, we can look to the fact that once conquered once others will want to come and take a look. Much of what we have done in the last 12 months is lay a number of belays on the slope. Things we have put in place to that the UK doesn't fall back into illiberal ways. We have also searched out a different route from the one David Cameron the current expedition leader did set out. Our route is easier on pensioners, it lifts many out of taxation, it frees up many people from bureaucracy.

We have failed the student members of our moutaineering party, by letting them fall into the greedy hands of the University Chancellers down below, who all think they are worthy of £9,000 a year to start the expedition of life. Somehow our education system is all exceptional!!! But we still promise them that once we scale this nasty crag of national debt covered in dying red roses we will sort that out for them, we stand by that.

I for one am ready to carry on climbing, my legs may hurt, my heart is heavy and my lungs are gasping because there is still so much to achieve.

Who's with me?

Happy 90th Birthday Our Wee Country #NornIron

In December 1920 the Government of Ireland Act* was first placed before the House of Commons. It made provision for a split in one of the historic provinces of Ireland. The second paragraph stated:

"For the purposes of this Act, Northern Ireland shall consist of the parliamentary counties of Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Londonderry and Tyrone, and the parliamentary boroughs of Belfast and Londonderry."

The act was voted through on 3 May 1921 and gained Royal Assent the following day so on the eve of an election to a Northern Irish Assembly we mark the 90th birthday of Northern Ireland, Our Wee Country. Ninety years on we do have Nationalists and Unionists prepared to work together for a shared future. We are looking at a democratic future for all the peoples and communities in Northern Ireland.

Tomorrow between 7am and 10 pm we go to the polls here to elect 108 MLAs, members to all 26 district councils and decide on the referendum on the Alternative Vote.

If you live in Northern Ireland don't forget to turn up at the Polling Station with your ID.

• A UK, Irish or EEA driving licence (photographic part)
• A UK, Irish or EU passport
• An electoral identity card
• A Translink Senior SmartPass
• A Translink 60+ SmartPass
• A Translink War Disabled SmartPass
• A Translink Blind Person’s SmartPass

* Repealed in 1999.

Location, location, location - of election posters

On Saturday local blogger Ian Parsley commented on the state of posters here for the Northern Irish elections. It really does make some interesting reading for my Scottish, English or Welsh friends and may well warrant a fuller response from myself at a later point. However, one thing he did mention is location, he said:

"I do wonder if there could be limitations on size and perhaps on location."

From my election campaigns in West Lothian and Endinburgh where I have often been the 'poster boy'* I can't believe some of the locations that the LARGE Northern Irish posters can appear on.

In all the Lothian elections I have helped poster in there are three simple rules by which affect the location.

1) Posters are only allowed on lamposts.

2) Posters are not allowed to be on any lampost that bears any other street furniture (i.e. direction and warning signs for traffic or traffic lights)

3) Posters are not allowed on traffic islands or central reservations.

Just locally I have seen some positioning of posters that causes me some concern, and maybe should have done for the poster teams that put them up. But without local by-laws as clear as those above they haven't thought about the implications of where they have put posters.

The first instance is on some railings outside a local corner shop. Children are liable to run out of this shop and cross the road, sometimes without thinking, yet as you can see there are posters on the railings that would further obscure their actions and distract a driver coming around the bend. From street level in a car travelling towards this behind the barriers is almost totally obscured.

The second is at the end of my road unto a major road. There is a staggered junction and a traffic island between to two to aid pedestrians. However, in the two weeks that the posters have already been up there has been slippage and it is becoming increasingly hard to see through it to any cars coming from the other junction, more so from an SUV type vehicle that often carry children.

Maybe Ian is right that there is a need for a little bit more regulation as to where posters should be allowed, as in the Lothian instructions should be clear enough and meet health and safety concerns. The things is in Northern Ireland there is no restiction as to when they can start going up, many have already been up for weeks and there are still 10 days before polling day. In West Lothian and Edinburgh they cannot be up before 00:01 on the Saturday before polling day and have to be down by the end of the second working day after the result is declared.

* For my Northern Irish readers that doesn't mean by face has been smiling down from them but I was responsible for their being put up and taken down again.

Party Election Broadcast Watch 12: Some Independents #AE11

Already I've covered the media braodcasts that the mainstream media have covered here for the Northern Ireland elections. But we are in a social media age, so some of the many Independent candidates have put up there own videos on YouTube. They don't have the big media budgets of the mainstream parties, so they don't always have the production values if the videos I have posted before. But here are the ones I have found so far.

Starting in East Belfast with Stephen Stewart



Charles Smyth standing in South Belfast on a Pro Capitalism ticket



If you know of any others please let me know in the comments below and I will post them on the blog.

Party Election Broadcast Watch 11: People Before Profit #AE11

Over here in Northern Ireland we have a different set of parties, with a different set of policies and a different set of priorities to a lot of the rest of the UK. In the run up to the Assembly Election on May 5th they are going to be prodicing a series of election broadcasts. I intend to, if they are easily available (i.e. on YouTube), embed them here so that people outside of Northern Ireland can see what the parties here are saying. I personally won't be passing comment, but feel free to add you own in the comments thread.

I've been rather remiss at keeping this up this week, but here is the People Before Profit Alliance broadcast.

Party Election Broadcast Watch 10: TUV #AE11

Over here in Northern Ireland we have a different set of parties, with a different set of policies and a different set of priorities to a lot of the rest of the UK. In the run up to the Assembly Election on May 5th they are going to be prodicing a series of election broadcasts. I intend to, if they are easily available (i.e. on YouTube), embed them here so that people outside of Northern Ireland can see what the parties here are saying. I personally won't be passing comment, but feel free to add you own in the comments thread.

I've been rather remiss at keeping this up this week, but here is the Traditional Unionist Voice broadcast.