It is that time of year once again to dust of my crystal ball and try and work out that is going to happen over the next twelve months.
1. An Olympic medalist will make a statement/protest about LGBT rights live on the Olympic Broadcaster. This will be the reason why we were right to let the athletes attend the Games at least one of them will make a protest and it will be the LGBT communities 1968 Black Power moment.
2. After the 400 bomb alearts, some of them viable, in Northern Ireland in 2013 one of the ones in 2014 will lead to a fatality. This is the one forecast I want to get wrong but I'm scared that at some point one of these will go wrong, we had the carrier of one incendiary devise catch fire this month and other brave civilians have carried devices to safe areas before contacting the authorities, so I suspect that as these are not up to the high standards at the end of the troubles that something is going to go wrong.
3. Mark Cavendish will win stages in three of the British Isles capitals this year. It will a unique year of opportunity for the Manxman. He will have the chance to win in the capitals of three nations that can be seen from the Isle of Man. First there is stage 2 of the Giro d'Italia finishing in Belfast city centre and the following day when the race finishes in Dublin. Then in July stage three will finish in London and this time, unlike the 2012 Olympics Cav will have the chance to sign and show Marcel Kittel that he is back at full strength.
4. There will be a coup against Kim Jong-un. I've said this before about the North Korean leader but after a number of eliminations of senior opponents I think that for the sake o self preservation a group will rise up to challenge his leadership this year.
5. Olympians Katherine Grainger and Louis Smith will announce their retirements. Both these two have taken a long time since the London to get back into action. Katherine did a BBC show in 2013 looking at those who continued and those who have quit while saying she was yet to come to her own decision, at 38 after over 12 months out she is unlikely to fancy getting back into the swing of training. Since the Olympics Louis has won Strictly Come Dancing in 2012 but has yet to compete again on the pommel. With the rising stars of British gymnastics that have been successful in 2013 being multiple discipline it is unlikely that being a pure specialist will suit well with Louis trying to fit back in.
6. Britain will win three or more medals in the Winter Olympics. With changes in the skeleton, short track skating, curling and slopestyle events there are multiple opportunities for Team GB to do well in Sochi so look for the Union flag going up the flag poles on a number of occasions and the National Anthem to play at least once. It will be the biggest haul since 1936 beating the two medal hauls of 1948, 1994 and 2002. Only at the first Winter Olympics in 1924 have GB ever won four medals at one games.
7. A DUP elected representative will actually speak/vote positively about an LGBT issue. The reason that the elected rep will state for this u-turn in their thinking is that a member of their family is either lesbian or gay.
8. Sammy Wilson will spend thousands of tax-payers money defending a court challenge by an same-sex couple who oppose their UK marriage being down graded to a civil partnership. Following the leadership of Edwin Poots the Minister for Finance and Personnel will waste finance and personnel on trying to defend that fact that marriages legal elsewhere in the UK as only being civil partnerships in Northern Ireland.
9.With Haass talks failing to reach an agreement on flags Northern Ireland descends into further acts of civil disobedience. With the lack of political leadership at the end of 2013 to realise that some solution had to be made on flags, both sides and especially the unionists continue to lose control of the situation in Northern Ireland. Alliance continue to be the main focus point of acts of civil disobedience which are on the verge, if not actually illegal.
10. England lose their first two group games in the World Cup in Brazil and are out before they face Costa Rica. After losing 1-0 to Italy in the first game in the heat of Manaus, England slump to a second defeat to Uruguay and the results of both those teams against Costa Rica mean that they are unable to progress before the final match on 24 June.
11. Scotland vote to stay in the UK. My prediction of the result 38% Yes, 62% No to the question that is put. Turnout will be under 50%.
12. As a result of the above Alex Salmond faces a leadership challenge from Nicola Sturgeon and John Mason in the Autumn and steps aside. The eventually contest will see Nicola Sturgeon elected as the new leader of the SNP. It leaves only the Scottish Liberal Democrats in Holyrood to have a sole male leader.
13. David Cameron is told by the EU that he cannot keep restricting free access to Romanians and Bulgarians, so he attempts to call an immediate referendum on EU membership. I use the word attempt as the coalition agreement and indeed act only relate to any constitutional change automatically prompting a referendum. So when David Cameron attempts to call this all the Liberal Democarats resign from Cabinet and the coalition is over forcing the Conservatives to operate as a minority Government.
14. As Parliament rises for the summer after months of failing to get his actual agenda through Parliament David Cameron announces he will resign after his party elect a successor. Immediately Zac Goldsmith resigns his seat and Boris Johnson stands for Richmond Park. But in the ensuing by election Lib Dem Robin Meltzer defeats Boris and his leadership aspirations are over.
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Tuesday, 31 December 2013
Monday, 31 December 2012
13 for 2013
Well as is traditional on this blog it is time to look forward to what 2013 will have in stall.
1. Peter Robinson will be ousted as DUP leader and First Minister. I seriously think that the way that the Protestant/Loyalist/Unionist community has been in revolt this past month will bring about a split within the DUP. The hardliners will be out for more blood and those that want a shared society or are seen too will be further marginalised. The biggest casualty of this will be the leader, who for the first time will be forced from office. Somehow Nigel Dodds takes over as leader.
2. We will say goodbye to Nelson Mandela, Margaret Thatcher and the Duke of Edinburgh. Yeah a triple whammy but all three have been in hospital this year and all three are far from young. I don't think that any of the three of them will live for a further 365 days.
3. Chris Froome will win the Tour de France. After Bradley Wiggins wins the Giro d'Italia Sky decide to name Froome as co-leader publicly for the Tour but in private Froome has been given the nod with Wiggins as his super-domestic, just so he can wear the number 1 for the race as defending champion. Meanwhile in his new team, Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Mark Cavendish returns to Paris in Green and yet again manages to win on the Champs Élysées, he also manages 5 stage wins and the sprinters jersey in the Giro.
4. Pressure mounts on Northern Ireland to rethink Equal Marriage with England, Wales and Scotland all passing legislation to allow equal marriage the Unionist politicians come under increased for their sham-Unionism on the matter of LGBT rights.
5. Andy Murray kisses a gold trophy. Yeah, I'm sticking my neck out here. In July Andy Murray fulfills every British tennis fan's dream of lifting up the silver-gilt cup inscribed with the words "The All England Lawn Tennis Club Single Handed Champion of the World". He will celebrate by going off and marrying Caroline Wozniacki before defending his US Open title.
6.Jeremy Clarkson will say something so over the top that he is suspended from presenting Top Gear. Yeah, hard to work out exactly what it is that Clarkson says that could lead to such action looking at his past history, but he will come up with something.
7. A DUP elected politician will be caught in a compromising position with someone of the same gender. Big news for the DUP as they try to carry on an attack on any expansion of LGBT rights is that one of their own is found to have had a secret lover of the same gender for years.
8. Alex Salmond drops the plans for a referendum on independence this becomes inevitable after he is caught telling even more inaccuracies about what an Independent Scotland will look like. An SNP MSP resigns and points out that under his plans Scotland would be a puppet state to too many other nations that being a devolved part of the United Kingdom is actually the most economically and legislatively liberating option that there is.
9. The Republic Party finally concede the need for gun control... sadly this only happens after an intern working for a Republican Senator kills a number of GOP Senators and Representatives and staff with assault weapons he has sneaked in in parts over a number of months.
10. Two members of Westboro Baptist Church leave to move in together in San Francisco...yeah turns out that they fancy someone of the same sex after all. One of the members is a member of the Phelps family.
11. The 2020 Olympics are awarded to Tokyo. The compact proposal set largely in the harbour area beats Istanbul in the second round of voting at the 125th IOC Session in September.
12. The Flag Protests will carry on until Easter. The protesters will continue in diminishing numbers to protest against the designated days the Union Flag is flown on Belfast City Hall until Easter. They run a near riot when on one of the designated days it's lowered and fail to notice as they are charging City Hall that it is being lowered to half mast only, to mark the death of the Duke of Edinburgh. When they carry out one last protest they are shouted at by members of the public for not showing respect to it being the day of the Duke's coffin being transported to Westminster Hall to lie in state.
13. There will be two by elections caused by MPs being charged as a result of the Jimmy Saville investigations.
On a personal note, I will run the Belfast Marathon on 6th May inside four hours (you can sponsor me at my Just Giving page)
1. Peter Robinson will be ousted as DUP leader and First Minister. I seriously think that the way that the Protestant/Loyalist/Unionist community has been in revolt this past month will bring about a split within the DUP. The hardliners will be out for more blood and those that want a shared society or are seen too will be further marginalised. The biggest casualty of this will be the leader, who for the first time will be forced from office. Somehow Nigel Dodds takes over as leader.
2. We will say goodbye to Nelson Mandela, Margaret Thatcher and the Duke of Edinburgh. Yeah a triple whammy but all three have been in hospital this year and all three are far from young. I don't think that any of the three of them will live for a further 365 days.
3. Chris Froome will win the Tour de France. After Bradley Wiggins wins the Giro d'Italia Sky decide to name Froome as co-leader publicly for the Tour but in private Froome has been given the nod with Wiggins as his super-domestic, just so he can wear the number 1 for the race as defending champion. Meanwhile in his new team, Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Mark Cavendish returns to Paris in Green and yet again manages to win on the Champs Élysées, he also manages 5 stage wins and the sprinters jersey in the Giro.
4. Pressure mounts on Northern Ireland to rethink Equal Marriage with England, Wales and Scotland all passing legislation to allow equal marriage the Unionist politicians come under increased for their sham-Unionism on the matter of LGBT rights.
5. Andy Murray kisses a gold trophy. Yeah, I'm sticking my neck out here. In July Andy Murray fulfills every British tennis fan's dream of lifting up the silver-gilt cup inscribed with the words "The All England Lawn Tennis Club Single Handed Champion of the World". He will celebrate by going off and marrying Caroline Wozniacki before defending his US Open title.
6.Jeremy Clarkson will say something so over the top that he is suspended from presenting Top Gear. Yeah, hard to work out exactly what it is that Clarkson says that could lead to such action looking at his past history, but he will come up with something.
7. A DUP elected politician will be caught in a compromising position with someone of the same gender. Big news for the DUP as they try to carry on an attack on any expansion of LGBT rights is that one of their own is found to have had a secret lover of the same gender for years.
8. Alex Salmond drops the plans for a referendum on independence this becomes inevitable after he is caught telling even more inaccuracies about what an Independent Scotland will look like. An SNP MSP resigns and points out that under his plans Scotland would be a puppet state to too many other nations that being a devolved part of the United Kingdom is actually the most economically and legislatively liberating option that there is.
9. The Republic Party finally concede the need for gun control... sadly this only happens after an intern working for a Republican Senator kills a number of GOP Senators and Representatives and staff with assault weapons he has sneaked in in parts over a number of months.
10. Two members of Westboro Baptist Church leave to move in together in San Francisco...yeah turns out that they fancy someone of the same sex after all. One of the members is a member of the Phelps family.
11. The 2020 Olympics are awarded to Tokyo. The compact proposal set largely in the harbour area beats Istanbul in the second round of voting at the 125th IOC Session in September.
12. The Flag Protests will carry on until Easter. The protesters will continue in diminishing numbers to protest against the designated days the Union Flag is flown on Belfast City Hall until Easter. They run a near riot when on one of the designated days it's lowered and fail to notice as they are charging City Hall that it is being lowered to half mast only, to mark the death of the Duke of Edinburgh. When they carry out one last protest they are shouted at by members of the public for not showing respect to it being the day of the Duke's coffin being transported to Westminster Hall to lie in state.
13. There will be two by elections caused by MPs being charged as a result of the Jimmy Saville investigations.
On a personal note, I will run the Belfast Marathon on 6th May inside four hours (you can sponsor me at my Just Giving page)
2012 Predictions: How did I do then?
It is time to reflect back on those predictions I made at the start of the year.
All that remains is to announce that my predictions for 2013 will be posted in an hour, my last post for 2012.
- Andy Murray will win in Australia in past years I have hedged my bets with Andy saying he will win a Grand Slam event either in Australia or the USA. This year after his Asian Autumn and the fact that Novak Djoković showed that Rafa and Fed can be beaten he will return after the injury at the end of season World Tour Finals he'll be back to go one better than both 2010 and 2011. I should have kept edging. Andy lost out to Djokovic in a tough 5 sets at the Australian open from 2-1 up in sets. He made his first Wimbledon final before losing to Federer, picking up his first Grand Slam final set. He then took Olympic gold, before winning the US Open 7-6. 7-5,2-6, 3-6, 6-2.
- Barak Obama will be President and president elect. Of course the next term doesn't start until January 2013 but Obama with new running mate Hillary Clinton will see off the republican ticket of Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. He will do so despite losing both North Carolina and Florida among the big scoring states in the electoral college. OK POTUS stuck with Joe 'the Senator' Biden for Veep and Hillary is stepping aside at the inauguration, memoirs are looming. But Barack Obama has got four more years.
- Rory McIlroy will win The Masters. After the blow up on the final nine holes at Augusta last year the Northern Irish golfer will come back and dominate the event on the course that suits his style of play. He will again lead after the 2nd and 3rd days. Pushing if not taking some of the records along the way. But on the 63rd hole of the Tournament the 10th on the last day he hits his tee shot straight down the middle. He birdies to extend his lead and heads back towards the inevitable green jacket. He didn't win the first major of the year tied for 3rd after the second round he dropped away to 40th, but no final round blow out. Rory . However, he did win the last the US PGA.
- Kim Jong-un will be overthrown. Before the end of the year the people of North Korea will overthrow the inherited dictatorship of the Kim family. The young leader will not survive a year in his new position. He will flee in exile to Japan where he will enjoy the freedom he experienced briefly when he studied in Switzerland, handing power over peacefully to the people's uprising leadership. Somehow he won the vote to become Time magazine man of the year and is still in power. A Chinese magazine also fell for The Onion naming him the sexiest man in the world.
- British women will shine at the Olympics the men will not do badly either. Beth Tweddle will retire after an inspired performance sees he lift gold in the Uneven Bars only a bronze for Beth. Rebecca Addlington will win double gold again! Ok double bronze in the 400m and 800m Keri-Ann Payne will win the swimming marathon in the Serpentine 4th. Sarah Stevenson will lift the Tae Kwan Do gold out in the prelims. Despite all this success some of the above will not make the Sports Personality of the Year shortlist. Well our first medal was in the road cycling and it was the women the day after Mark Cavendish failed to get his. Plus another medal from the women in day two. The total medal break down by gender was Women 10 Gold 6 Silver 6 Bronze, Men 18 G 9 S 13 B Mixed 1 Gold (2 women 1 man) 1 Silver (4 women 1 man) in the equestrian team events and 1 silver (1 women 1 man) in Tennis.
- Greece will send its smallest ever team the founding nation of the Olympics will because of economic constraints send its smallest ever Olympic team just to maintain it's ever presence at the games. It will fail to send any teams for the team events, rowers or equestrians because of the cost and only send individuals and sailors who are able to get their own boats to Weymouth. The team of 104 was the smallest that Greece had send since the 70 that had attended in Barcelona in 1992. In Atlanta in 1996 they sent 121, Sydney 2000 there were 140, when Athens hosted in 2004 there were 426 home nation competitors and last time in Beijing there was still an increase to 156 over the 2000 numbers. This shrinkage is a total of xx%
- Manx Missile will take Green and Gold. Mark these dates in your diary 4th, 5th, 6th,14th, 16th, 22nd and 28th July. The first six will be the stage wins that take Mark Cavendish to a second consecutive Green Jersey in the Tour the France the final one is after that little training jaunt around France (Belgium and Switzerland) sees him find along the Mall to pump the air wearing the Team GB jersey he wore to the rainbow jersey to Olympic gold. Little did I expect to see Mark take THREE stages in the Giro d'Italia and lose out on the Maglia Rossa (red jersey) by the time that race got to Milan by just one point to Joaquim Rodriguez. Just before the Tour Mark said he was changing his approach had lost some weight and speed. Well it didn't show in the 2nd July as he rode into Tournai without the famous lead out train he floated on other's wheels to take his 21st stage win. However the three earlt stages I had ear marked for success brought mixed fortunes, but none of them winning. He didn't win again until the 20th, but did win on the 22nd to make it four wins on the Champs d'Elysées in a row, with the Maillot Jaune on the back on Britain's Bradley Wiggins leading him out. Sadly for Mark nobody was prepared to help Team GB in the Olympic road race so he missed out on gold there to.
- A DUP MLA will take part in Belfast Pride. Maybe I will fall down on this one but I really want to see the DUP take up the invite to engage with the other parties in the debate that is now traditionally part of the Belfast Pride week. I don't expect them to take part in the parade this year but a step to turn up to the debate with our politicians is a step in the right direction and will take place in the year that Jeff Dudgeon has received an MBE in the New Years Honours. Not quite an MLA but Lord Mayor Alderman Gavin Robinson did take part in the annual Pride Talks Back panel on 31 July.
- William and Kate will give birth to a daughter. The third in line to the throne a Princess whose position will not be usurped by a subsequent brother will arrive in the Autumn/Winter of the Queen's Diamond Jubilee year. After speculation she will be called Diana in the press it is announced her name shall be Margaret Elizabeth Victoria. Well the baby isn't due until next summer so I wasn't too far off on the baby prediction.
- Gareth Malone gets a gong. In the Queen's Birthday Honours Gareth Malone will have bestowed upon him for services to choral music and the armed forces the honour of Officer of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire (OBE). Sam Stevenson representing the women of the Military Wives Choir will be bestowed as a Member of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire (MBE). Bang on target, well at least the first bit Gareth Malone was awarded the OBE in the Queen's Birthday Honours.
- Seb Coe wins Strictly Come Dancing. Fresh from running a very successful Olympics Lord Coe becomes the oldest ever winner of the glitter ball dancing with Natalie Lowe. Seb no! But Victoria Pendleton and Louis Smith with a gold, two silver and a bronze between them from the Games did take part. Louis of course adding the Glitterball to his silver and bronze from the summer of sport. Seb was awarded the Sports Personality of the Year lifetime achievement award.
- Maggie Thatcher will win an Oscar and die on the same day. I was going to say in the same year but I'm being bold and say that on 26 February Meryl Streep will win the best Actress award at the 84th Academy Awards and the Iron Lady herself will pass away in her 87th year. Well Meryl did indeed win her Oscar, although the following day the papers did not carry obituaries for the woman she portrayed. Maggie celebrated her 87th birthday in October.
- Near miss ½ point
- On the nose 1 point
- Close he won another major ½ point
- Total failure nil point
- British women (and men) did shine, just not the ones I singled out 1 point
- It was only the smallest for 20 years nil point
- Neither acheived nil point
- Not and MLA but they too part ½ point
- Baby imminent ½ point
- Honoured just the wrong station 1 point
- Wrong Olympic connection but an Olympic win ½ point
- Meryl got her Oscar but the Iron Lady still lives ½ point
All that remains is to announce that my predictions for 2013 will be posted in an hour, my last post for 2012.
Saturday, 31 December 2011
My Predictions for 2012
Somehow I didn't get around to publishing any predictions for 2011 so I don't have to report back on my annual abysmal performance. However, I'm up and ready for another go this year.
- Andy Murray will win in Australia in past years I have hedged my bets with Andy saying he will win a Grand Slam event either in Australia or the USA. This year after his Asian Autumn and the fact that Novak Djoković showed that Rafa and Fed can be beaten he will return after the injury at the end of season World Tour Finals he'll be back to go one better than both 2010 and 2011.
- Barak Obama will be President and president elect. Of course the next term doesn't start until January 2013 but Obama with new running mate Hillary Clinton will see off the republican ticket of Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. He will do so despite losing both North Carolina and Florida among the big scoring states in the electoral college.
- Rory McIlroy will win The Masters. After the blow up on the final nine holes at Augusta last year the Northern Irish golfer will come back and dominate the event on the course that suits his style of play. He will again lead after the 2nd and 3rd days. Pushing if not taking some of the records along the way. But on the 63rd hole of the Tournament the 10th on the last day he hits his tee shot straight down the middle. He birdies to extend his lead and heads back towards the inevitable green jacket.
- Kim Jong-un will be overthrown. Before the end of the year the people of North Korea will overthrow the inherited dictatorship of the Kim family. The young leader will not survive a year in his new position. He will flee in exile to Japan where he will enjoy the freedom he experienced briefly when he studied in Switzerland, handing power over peacefully to the people's uprising leadership.
- British women will shine at the Olympics the men will not do badly either. Beth Tweddle will retire after an inspired performance sees he lift gold in the Uneven Bars. Rebecca Addlington will win double gold again! Keri-Ann Payne will win the swimming marathon in the Serpentine. Sarah Stevenson will lift the Tae Kwan Do gold. Despite all this success some of the above will not make the Sports Personality of the Year shortlist.
- Greece will send its smallest ever team the founding nation of the Olympics will because of economic constraints send its smallest ever Olympic team just to maintain it's ever presence at the games. It will fail to send any teams for the team events, rowers or equestrians because of the cost and only send individuals and sailors who are able to get their own boats to Weymouth.
- Manx Missile will take Green and Gold. Mark these dates in your diary 4th, 5th, 6th,14th, 16th, 22nd and 28th July. The first six will be the stage wins that take Mark Cavendish to a second consecutive Green Jersey in the Tour the France the final one is after that little training jaunt around France (Belgium and Switzerland) sees him find along the Mall to pump the air wearing the Team GB jersey he wore to the rainbow jersey to Olympic gold.
- A DUP MLA will take part in Belfast Pride. Maybe I will fall down on this one but I really want to see the DUP take up the invite to engage with the other parties in the debate that is now traditionally part of the Belfast Pride week. I don't expect them to take part in the parade this year but a step to turn up to the debate with our politicians is a step in the right direction and will take place in the year that Jeff Dudgeon has received an MBE in the New Years Honours.
- William and Kate will give birth to a daughter. The third in line to the throne a Princess whose position will not be usurped by a subsequent brother will arrive in the Autumn/Winter of the Queen's Diamond Jubilee year. After speculation she will be called Diana in the press it is announced her name shall be Margaret Elizabeth Victoria.
- Gareth Malone gets a gong. In the Queen's Birthday Honours Gareth Malone will have bestowed upon him for services to choral music and the armed forces the honour of Officer of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire (OBE). Sam Stevenson representing the women of the Military Wives Choir will be bestowed as a Member of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire (MBE).
- Seb Coe wins Strictly Come Dancing. Fresh from running a very successful Olympics Lord Coe becomes the oldest ever winner of the glitter ball dancing with Natalie Lowe.
- Maggie Thatcher will win an Oscar and die on the same day. I was going to say in the same year but I'm being bold and say that on 26 February Meryl Streep will win the best Actress award at the 84th Academy Awards and the Iron Lady herself will pass away in her 87th year.
Friday, 31 December 2010
How did I do with my predictions for 2010
Well with a minute to go to midnight how did I do with my bloody obvious predictions from last year.
1. There will be a General Election this took place on May 6th
2. The boat race will be won by Oxford....or Cambridge...one of those two teams at any rate. Yeah, I was right here too.*
3. The ice and snow currently covering large swathes of Scotland will melt. It did, the last from out the back of my house in Bathgate melted in March.
4. During the Football World Cup in South Africa there will descent from players against at least one official. Take you pick of a number of incidents.
5. There will be new boxing world champions....what you want the divisions, belts etc?...hey these are the bleeding obvious predictions not Nostradamus or some Mayans. Yes.There were quite a few changes check here.
6. Talking of Mayan's somebody somewhere during the year will point out that the end of the Mayan calendar has happened before, and if only some Mayan were creating new far reaching calendars the film 2012 might not have happened. Need to check this one
7. There will be 5 men and 5 women nominated for the best Actor and Actress awards for the 2010 Academy Awards. Yes they were Morgan Freeman, Jeff Bridges, George Clooney, Colin Firth, Jeremy Renner, Meryl Streep, Sandra Bullock, Helen Mirren, Gabourey Sidibe and Carey Mulligan.
8. David Cameron will smile, look pensive and wave. Yes, he did all of this on the day he walked in number 10 for the first time.
9. Gordon Brown will look glum, look glummer and try not to smirk again. Yes he did the first two quite a lot during the general election. He may have tried and failed with the last during the leaders debates.
10. The Earth will do a complete circuit of the Sun, the moon will make approximately 13.4 orbits of the earth and Vogon Constructor Ships will not demolish us to make way for a Hyperspace Bypass...at least not this year. Yes, result and not a Vogon in sight.
Of course I also made some considered predictions
So how did they go?
1. Britain will take their best return ever in the Winter Olympics with 5 medals. We'll start with the local pair Sinead and John Kerr who will win their first Olympic medal. Zoe Gillings will snowboard her way to the podium and not to be outdone in form Chemmy Alcock will bring her best to the piste to also lift a medal. On the bobsleigh track two Britons Amy Williams and Shelly Rudman will stand on the podium in the women's skeleton bob. Only Amy medalled, even though it was Gold it was not GB&NI's best performance.
2. The results of the General Election in Scotland give Labour 28, Lib Dems 16, SNP 13, Tories 2. Labour 41, Lib Dem 11, SNP 6, Tories 1. Miserable fail but I would still have guessed more for everyone bar Labour at 7am on polling day.
3. After the result and Gordon falling on his schian dubh, the Milliband brothers tie up most of the remaining Labour MPs nominations between them. Inspired by the Polish President and Prime Minister, or maybe Jedward they decide to run a joint leadership bid. They try to use the name Dedward Milliband, although rumours that Louis Walsh, or PM Cameron are going to either sue or use the 'deadwood' sounding name they decide on Edvid instead. Well they did tie up most of the Labour nominations, some of their supporters lent their nomiation to get Diane Abbott on the ballot. Of course there was no joint leadership bid but they were the last two standing.
4. Andy Murray will win a Grand Slam this year....(I know I said that last year). If he hasn't won the Australian watch out for the US Open. He will reach the semi-finals in all four (if he is fit). Came mighty close to this one in the Austrailian he was leading 6-3, 7-6, 3-0 before Federer came back to win it in 5 leaving Andy in tears. He didn't reach the semi-finals in all four and didn't blame injury for either the French or US exits (although he had a number of trainer calls out in New York).
5. Michael Schumacher will win two of the first three races of the F1 season, but a shunt mid-season brings his comeback to an end when he aggravates old injuries. Oops! Schumey failed to impress upon his return, no major craches ended his career either.
6. Team Sky Rider Bradley Wiggins will ride along the Champs d'Elysee behind his Green Jerseyed compatriot Mark Cavendish to the best finish ever by a Brit in the Grand Tour when he podiums. Brad said himseld he'd done badly in preparing. A couple of crashes cost Cav a close run in the Green jersey. But he won all the sprints he took part in at the line.
7. The Church of Scotland to stop the anti-gay grouping in the church continually breaking the moratorium of silence over homosexual ministers will bring forward a decision on the issue at this years General Assembly. Err no. There are still whispers on this one but it will come to an end at this years General Assmebly, I predict fireworks.
8. Russell T. Davis after bringing back Doctor Who announces that he is try it again. He plans to bring back to the small screen Charlie's Angels with a twist, Charlie is female and the angels are a mixture of male and female eye candy. No word from RTD on this.....yet.
9. A small group of Premier League footballers hold a joint press conference to announce that they are gay. Football fans are surprisingly supportive with the news. Fans of both sets of fans drowning out the homophobic numpties who try and make something of it. Still no out gay footballers in the Premier League and as Qatar have been awarded the 2022 World Cup to Homophobic comments from the FIFA President I don't think it will happen soon, at least not willingly.
10. Strictly Come Dancing sees the return of Arlene Philips as a judge in the new five judges format.Still no Arlene on the main show. She has her own show in development though.
* For the record it was Cambridge that won on 3 April 2010
1. There will be a General Election this took place on May 6th
2. The boat race will be won by Oxford....or Cambridge...one of those two teams at any rate. Yeah, I was right here too.*
3. The ice and snow currently covering large swathes of Scotland will melt. It did, the last from out the back of my house in Bathgate melted in March.
4. During the Football World Cup in South Africa there will descent from players against at least one official. Take you pick of a number of incidents.
5. There will be new boxing world champions....what you want the divisions, belts etc?...hey these are the bleeding obvious predictions not Nostradamus or some Mayans. Yes.There were quite a few changes check here.
6. Talking of Mayan's somebody somewhere during the year will point out that the end of the Mayan calendar has happened before, and if only some Mayan were creating new far reaching calendars the film 2012 might not have happened. Need to check this one
7. There will be 5 men and 5 women nominated for the best Actor and Actress awards for the 2010 Academy Awards. Yes they were Morgan Freeman, Jeff Bridges, George Clooney, Colin Firth, Jeremy Renner, Meryl Streep, Sandra Bullock, Helen Mirren, Gabourey Sidibe and Carey Mulligan.
8. David Cameron will smile, look pensive and wave. Yes, he did all of this on the day he walked in number 10 for the first time.
9. Gordon Brown will look glum, look glummer and try not to smirk again. Yes he did the first two quite a lot during the general election. He may have tried and failed with the last during the leaders debates.
10. The Earth will do a complete circuit of the Sun, the moon will make approximately 13.4 orbits of the earth and Vogon Constructor Ships will not demolish us to make way for a Hyperspace Bypass...at least not this year. Yes, result and not a Vogon in sight.
Of course I also made some considered predictions
So how did they go?
1. Britain will take their best return ever in the Winter Olympics with 5 medals. We'll start with the local pair Sinead and John Kerr who will win their first Olympic medal. Zoe Gillings will snowboard her way to the podium and not to be outdone in form Chemmy Alcock will bring her best to the piste to also lift a medal. On the bobsleigh track two Britons Amy Williams and Shelly Rudman will stand on the podium in the women's skeleton bob. Only Amy medalled, even though it was Gold it was not GB&NI's best performance.
2. The results of the General Election in Scotland give Labour 28, Lib Dems 16, SNP 13, Tories 2. Labour 41, Lib Dem 11, SNP 6, Tories 1. Miserable fail but I would still have guessed more for everyone bar Labour at 7am on polling day.
3. After the result and Gordon falling on his schian dubh, the Milliband brothers tie up most of the remaining Labour MPs nominations between them. Inspired by the Polish President and Prime Minister, or maybe Jedward they decide to run a joint leadership bid. They try to use the name Dedward Milliband, although rumours that Louis Walsh, or PM Cameron are going to either sue or use the 'deadwood' sounding name they decide on Edvid instead. Well they did tie up most of the Labour nominations, some of their supporters lent their nomiation to get Diane Abbott on the ballot. Of course there was no joint leadership bid but they were the last two standing.
4. Andy Murray will win a Grand Slam this year....(I know I said that last year). If he hasn't won the Australian watch out for the US Open. He will reach the semi-finals in all four (if he is fit). Came mighty close to this one in the Austrailian he was leading 6-3, 7-6, 3-0 before Federer came back to win it in 5 leaving Andy in tears. He didn't reach the semi-finals in all four and didn't blame injury for either the French or US exits (although he had a number of trainer calls out in New York).
5. Michael Schumacher will win two of the first three races of the F1 season, but a shunt mid-season brings his comeback to an end when he aggravates old injuries. Oops! Schumey failed to impress upon his return, no major craches ended his career either.
6. Team Sky Rider Bradley Wiggins will ride along the Champs d'Elysee behind his Green Jerseyed compatriot Mark Cavendish to the best finish ever by a Brit in the Grand Tour when he podiums. Brad said himseld he'd done badly in preparing. A couple of crashes cost Cav a close run in the Green jersey. But he won all the sprints he took part in at the line.
7. The Church of Scotland to stop the anti-gay grouping in the church continually breaking the moratorium of silence over homosexual ministers will bring forward a decision on the issue at this years General Assembly. Err no. There are still whispers on this one but it will come to an end at this years General Assmebly, I predict fireworks.
8. Russell T. Davis after bringing back Doctor Who announces that he is try it again. He plans to bring back to the small screen Charlie's Angels with a twist, Charlie is female and the angels are a mixture of male and female eye candy. No word from RTD on this.....yet.
9. A small group of Premier League footballers hold a joint press conference to announce that they are gay. Football fans are surprisingly supportive with the news. Fans of both sets of fans drowning out the homophobic numpties who try and make something of it. Still no out gay footballers in the Premier League and as Qatar have been awarded the 2022 World Cup to Homophobic comments from the FIFA President I don't think it will happen soon, at least not willingly.
10. Strictly Come Dancing sees the return of Arlene Philips as a judge in the new five judges format.Still no Arlene on the main show. She has her own show in development though.
* For the record it was Cambridge that won on 3 April 2010
Friday, 12 February 2010
Six Nations Week Two Predictions
Last week Malcand me were both 100% on the results but he has the edge on points difference. For Ireland v Italy he was 7 points away to my 14, England v Wales 8 to my 10 but for Scotland v France I was only 8 points off, edging his 9. Those are cumulative differences from the actual scores of both teams giving him a 24 to 32 lead.
So on with this week.
Game one is in Paris and may well be seen as the Championship decider. Ireland are still unbeaten since 2008. But O'Gara is being retained ahead of the fit again John Sexton, who to me looks as good as O'Gara, just a few years back rather than the one of today. France are without Aurelien Rougerie and Benjamin Fall after injuries they sustained at Murrayfield. However, I think the French scrum half Morgan Parra may have just given added incentive for the French to win in Paris for only the third time since 1952, by calling them cheats. Has he forgotten which player on the same park 'cheated' in the two nations meeting in football.
Wales take on Scotland in Cardiff and I'm sorry to say to the Scots but I don't think the Welsh will be giving away 10 minutes of sin binning a crucial player at the crunch time again. They were almost ready to dominate England last weekend, while the Scots failed to cut out the errors that gave the French the came just down the track from me here. Wales will win this with ease I feel never being troubled by the Scots, even with Euan Murray back for this 'Saturday' game.
On Valentines Day the English won't be wasting any love on their hosts in Rome. I don't think the English will take their foot off the pedal in the second half as the Irish appeared to last week, so I may well have underestimated the score line here. England to win setting up the next game to decide the championship if I'm right all weekend at Twickenham in a fortnight's time.
So on with this week.
France 20 -24 Ireland
Wales 21-10 Scotland
Italy 13-34 England
Italy 13-34 England
Game one is in Paris and may well be seen as the Championship decider. Ireland are still unbeaten since 2008. But O'Gara is being retained ahead of the fit again John Sexton, who to me looks as good as O'Gara, just a few years back rather than the one of today. France are without Aurelien Rougerie and Benjamin Fall after injuries they sustained at Murrayfield. However, I think the French scrum half Morgan Parra may have just given added incentive for the French to win in Paris for only the third time since 1952, by calling them cheats. Has he forgotten which player on the same park 'cheated' in the two nations meeting in football.
Wales take on Scotland in Cardiff and I'm sorry to say to the Scots but I don't think the Welsh will be giving away 10 minutes of sin binning a crucial player at the crunch time again. They were almost ready to dominate England last weekend, while the Scots failed to cut out the errors that gave the French the came just down the track from me here. Wales will win this with ease I feel never being troubled by the Scots, even with Euan Murray back for this 'Saturday' game.
On Valentines Day the English won't be wasting any love on their hosts in Rome. I don't think the English will take their foot off the pedal in the second half as the Irish appeared to last week, so I may well have underestimated the score line here. England to win setting up the next game to decide the championship if I'm right all weekend at Twickenham in a fortnight's time.
Friday, 5 February 2010
Six Nations Week One Predictions
Malc is back blogging. Hurrah!! And has laid down the gauntlet of predicting the scores if the Six Nations. So here is my take on the weekend's action.
Ireland 41-9 Italy
England 21-16 Wales
Scotland 16-17 France
England 21-16 Wales
Scotland 16-17 France
Game one is in Dublin. The only decision to be made is in the score. I see Ireland dominating the Azurri. The only real choice is how many tries they can run in, I expect the majority of Ireland's tries to be in the second half.
I think game two may well be between the two teams challenging Ireland for the trophy BO'D is carrying above. However, England will kick their way to victory. They always seem to.
I think Scotland will be up for Les Bleus arrival at Murrayfield. I remember two years ago partying away with some French fans in the Grassmarket into the small hours. I think they will be celebrating again this weekend but only by the skin of their teeth.
Sunday, 17 January 2010
2010: Living in the Future (38 Years On)
In 1972 Geoffrey Hoyle wrote a children's book called 2010: Living in the Future.
Well 2010 is now the present, so take a look at the book on Tumblr courtesy of Daniel Sinker and see how close and far out some of the predictions are. Also see how some mix futuristic ideas with old school technology. You can even add a comment if you want.
A interesting thing to have stumbled upon on a Sunday afternoon. Indeed reading it I have a feeling that I actually have read this before, back in the 70s. It would have been the sort of book I would have picked up at my local library.
UPDATE: It gets better Daniel has managed to track down the author and has sent him an email to find out how he thinks the real 2010 compares with his vision of it. There is a Facebook group that was set up to find him, I look forward to hearing any potential response.
Thursday, 31 December 2009
My Stating the Bleeding Obvious Predictions for 2010
1. There will be a General Election
2. The boat race will be won by Oxford....or Cambridge...one of those two teams at any rate.
3. The ice and snow currently covering large swathes of Scotland will melt.
4. During the Football World Cup in South Africa there will descent from players against at least one official.
5. There will be new boxing world champions....what you want the divisions, belts etc?...hey these are the bleeding obvious predictions not Nostradamus or some Mayans.
6. Talking of Mayan's somebody somewhere during the year will point out that the end of the Mayan calendar has happened before, and if only some Mayan were creating new far reaching calendars the film 2012 might not have happened.
7. There will be 5 men and 5 women nominated for the best Actor and Actress awards for the 2010 Academy Awards.
8. David Cameron will smile, look pensive and wave.
9. Gordon Brown will look glum, look glummer and try not to smirk again.
10. The Earth will do a complete circuit of the Sun, the moon will make approximately 13.4 orbits of the earth and Vogon Constructor Ships will not demolish us to make way for a Hyperspace Bypass...at least not this year.
UPDATE: As people keep linking to this and not my actual considered predictions I thought I'd better had do that myself.
Tuesday, 29 December 2009
Ten for 2010
Last year the Blogosphere made their nine predictions for 2009 so here on New Year's Eve (I was going to post this on New Year's Eve but mixed up my 2 and 3 in postdating it) as Iain Dale is doing his today (according to Facebook at 23:30 on Monday) here are my pick of ten happenings for 2010.
1. Britain will take their best return ever in the Winter Olympics with 5 medals. We'll start with the local pair Sinead and John Kerr who will win their first Olympic medal. Zoe Gillings will snowboard her way to the podium and not to be outdone in form Chemmy Alcock will bring her best to the piste to also lift a medal. On the bobsleigh track two Britons Amy Williams and Shelly Rudman will stand on the podium in the women's skeleton bob.
2. The results of the General Election in Scotland give Labour 28, Lib Dems 16, SNP 13, Tories 2.
3. After the result and Gordon falling on his schian dubh, the Milliband brothers tie up most of the remaining Labour MPs nominations between them. Inspired by the Polish President and Prime Minister, or maybe Jedward they decide to run a joint leadership bid. They try to use the name Dedward Milliband, although rumours that Louis Walsh, or PM Cameron are going to either sue or use the 'deadwood' sounding name they decide on Edvid instead.
4. Andy Murray will win a Grand Slam this year....(I know I said that last year). If he hasn't won the Australian watch out for the US Open. He will reach the semi-finals in all four (if he is fit).
5. Michael Schumacher will win two of the first three races of the F1 season, but a shunt mid-season brings his comeback to an end when he aggravates old injuries.
6. Team Sky Rider Bradley Wiggins will ride along the Champs d'Elysee behind his Green Jerseyed compatriot Mark Cavendish to the best finish ever by a Brit in the Grand Tour when he podiums.
7. The Church of Scotland to stop the anti-gay grouping in the church continually breaking the moratorium of silence over homosexual ministers will bring forward a decision on the issue at this years General Assembly.
8. Russell T. Davis after bringing back Doctor Who announces that he is try it again. He plans to bring back to the small screen Charlie's Angels with a twist, Charlie is female and the angels are a mixture of male and female eye candy.
9. A small group of Premier League footballers hold a joint press conference to announce that they are gay. Football fans are surprisingly supportive with the news. Fans of both sets of fans drowning out the homophobic numpties who try and make something of it.
10. Strictly Come Dancing sees the return of Arlene Philips as a judge in the new five judges format.
1. Britain will take their best return ever in the Winter Olympics with 5 medals. We'll start with the local pair Sinead and John Kerr who will win their first Olympic medal. Zoe Gillings will snowboard her way to the podium and not to be outdone in form Chemmy Alcock will bring her best to the piste to also lift a medal. On the bobsleigh track two Britons Amy Williams and Shelly Rudman will stand on the podium in the women's skeleton bob.
2. The results of the General Election in Scotland give Labour 28, Lib Dems 16, SNP 13, Tories 2.
3. After the result and Gordon falling on his schian dubh, the Milliband brothers tie up most of the remaining Labour MPs nominations between them. Inspired by the Polish President and Prime Minister, or maybe Jedward they decide to run a joint leadership bid. They try to use the name Dedward Milliband, although rumours that Louis Walsh, or PM Cameron are going to either sue or use the 'deadwood' sounding name they decide on Edvid instead.
4. Andy Murray will win a Grand Slam this year....(I know I said that last year). If he hasn't won the Australian watch out for the US Open. He will reach the semi-finals in all four (if he is fit).
5. Michael Schumacher will win two of the first three races of the F1 season, but a shunt mid-season brings his comeback to an end when he aggravates old injuries.
6. Team Sky Rider Bradley Wiggins will ride along the Champs d'Elysee behind his Green Jerseyed compatriot Mark Cavendish to the best finish ever by a Brit in the Grand Tour when he podiums.
7. The Church of Scotland to stop the anti-gay grouping in the church continually breaking the moratorium of silence over homosexual ministers will bring forward a decision on the issue at this years General Assembly.
8. Russell T. Davis after bringing back Doctor Who announces that he is try it again. He plans to bring back to the small screen Charlie's Angels with a twist, Charlie is female and the angels are a mixture of male and female eye candy.
9. A small group of Premier League footballers hold a joint press conference to announce that they are gay. Football fans are surprisingly supportive with the news. Fans of both sets of fans drowning out the homophobic numpties who try and make something of it.
10. Strictly Come Dancing sees the return of Arlene Philips as a judge in the new five judges format.
Saturday, 26 December 2009
My 9 for 2009: How I faired
Well here were my original predictions on the first of January, most of these can now be determined.
1. There will be a General Election. I expect it around April
Well we all know that didn't happen.
2. Liverpool will hold on to win the Premier League for the first time.
Those guys from the other end of the ship canal (Man. United) actually equalled Liverpool's record of 18 top flight titles.
3. The Nats will start to drop in the polls as Scottish notice that more and more of their promises are not being met, and blame is shifted to London for things even Holyrood has full control over.
Well they have but probably not as much as I expected. What is startling though is that those in favour of independence for Scotland has dropped quite considerably in the polls.
4. The next Doctor Who will be a black actor.
Well, the fact that we don't see the new Doctor appear until 1 January 2010 doesn't negate the fact that Matt Smith is most definitely WASPish.
5. Andy Murray will win the US Open.
Andy didn't make a Grand Slam final all year. But did win more top level tournaments than any other man on the circuit. I'm tempted to keep this prediction for next year.
6. We'll still be struggling to get out of this recession at the end of the year. Opposition parties will still be screaming at the government to take action that helps the people rather than helping big business, especially the banks which got us here in the first place.
Well I think we score on this one. The pre-budget report was another case of the Government running rough shod over some of the lowest paid.
7. Heath Ledger will be nominated and win posthumously the Best Actor Oscar for his performance in the Dark Knight.
Oh yus! Score!!
8. Barack Obama will lift the US embargo on trade with Cuba. The Govenator of California will celebrate by restocking his humidor with fine Habanas.
Well Obama has made the overtures, but Raul Castro is still making things tough. So I am claiming success on this America is seeking to lift the embargo, already allowing its citizens to travel and starting some forms of trade.
9. There will a major breakdown in the Internet which will lead to a major blackout of communications that will last for a considerable period and be widespread.
Now there were times that hackers did cause a considerable breakdown in some of the world leading sights this year. None of them were for a considerable period though but GMail, Twitter and Facebook were affected globally at times. Anyone remember August 6th.
1. There will be a General Election. I expect it around April
Well we all know that didn't happen.
2. Liverpool will hold on to win the Premier League for the first time.
Those guys from the other end of the ship canal (Man. United) actually equalled Liverpool's record of 18 top flight titles.
3. The Nats will start to drop in the polls as Scottish notice that more and more of their promises are not being met, and blame is shifted to London for things even Holyrood has full control over.
Well they have but probably not as much as I expected. What is startling though is that those in favour of independence for Scotland has dropped quite considerably in the polls.
4. The next Doctor Who will be a black actor.
Well, the fact that we don't see the new Doctor appear until 1 January 2010 doesn't negate the fact that Matt Smith is most definitely WASPish.
5. Andy Murray will win the US Open.
Andy didn't make a Grand Slam final all year. But did win more top level tournaments than any other man on the circuit. I'm tempted to keep this prediction for next year.
6. We'll still be struggling to get out of this recession at the end of the year. Opposition parties will still be screaming at the government to take action that helps the people rather than helping big business, especially the banks which got us here in the first place.
Well I think we score on this one. The pre-budget report was another case of the Government running rough shod over some of the lowest paid.
7. Heath Ledger will be nominated and win posthumously the Best Actor Oscar for his performance in the Dark Knight.
Oh yus! Score!!
8. Barack Obama will lift the US embargo on trade with Cuba. The Govenator of California will celebrate by restocking his humidor with fine Habanas.
Well Obama has made the overtures, but Raul Castro is still making things tough. So I am claiming success on this America is seeking to lift the embargo, already allowing its citizens to travel and starting some forms of trade.
9. There will a major breakdown in the Internet which will lead to a major blackout of communications that will last for a considerable period and be widespread.
Now there were times that hackers did cause a considerable breakdown in some of the world leading sights this year. None of them were for a considerable period though but GMail, Twitter and Facebook were affected globally at times. Anyone remember August 6th.
Thursday, 1 January 2009
9 for 2009
Before the first day of the New Year is out I'd better get around to making my 9 predictions of 2009.
1. There will be a General Election. I expect it around April and not being held of to the same time as the Euro elections in June. Because I don't think Gordon is convinced holding off once polls appear to be in favour too long will do any good..
...for the party, bugger the country.
2. Liverpool will hold on to win the Premier League for the first time.
3. The Nats will start to drop in the polls as Scottish notice that more and more of their promises are not being met, and blame is shifted to London for things even Holyrood has full control over.
4. The next Doctor Who will be a black actor.
5. Andy Murray will win the US Open.
6. We'll still be struggling to get out of this recession at the end of the year. Opposition parties will still be screaming at the government to take action that helps the people rather than helping big business, especially the banks which got us here in the first place.
7. Heath Ledger will be nominated and win posthumously the Best Actor Oscar for his performance in the Dark Knight.
8. Barack Obama will lift the US embargo on trade with Cuba. The Govenator of California will celebrate by restocking his humidor with fine Habanas.
9. There will a major breakdown in the Internet which will lead to a major blackout of communications that will last for a considerable period and be widespread.
Well we'll see in 12 months how I've done.
1. There will be a General Election. I expect it around April and not being held of to the same time as the Euro elections in June. Because I don't think Gordon is convinced holding off once polls appear to be in favour too long will do any good..
...for the party, bugger the country.
2. Liverpool will hold on to win the Premier League for the first time.
3. The Nats will start to drop in the polls as Scottish notice that more and more of their promises are not being met, and blame is shifted to London for things even Holyrood has full control over.
4. The next Doctor Who will be a black actor.
5. Andy Murray will win the US Open.
6. We'll still be struggling to get out of this recession at the end of the year. Opposition parties will still be screaming at the government to take action that helps the people rather than helping big business, especially the banks which got us here in the first place.
7. Heath Ledger will be nominated and win posthumously the Best Actor Oscar for his performance in the Dark Knight.
8. Barack Obama will lift the US embargo on trade with Cuba. The Govenator of California will celebrate by restocking his humidor with fine Habanas.
9. There will a major breakdown in the Internet which will lead to a major blackout of communications that will last for a considerable period and be widespread.
Well we'll see in 12 months how I've done.
Wednesday, 1 March 2006
My Predictions
For some reason I’ve been unable to post my predictions on the Apollo Project. So now that voting has closed here are my predictions.
1. Total number of votes cast 68%:
2. First preference votes cast for Ming Campbell 36%:
3. First preference votes cast for Chris Huhne 31%:
4. First preference votes cast for Simon Hughes 33%:
If no candidate scores 50%+ on the first round, the candidate with least 1st preferences will be excluded, and their 2nd preferences re-distributed accordingly.
What do you think will be the result in this final round? (Tip: put 0% next to whichever candidate you think will lose in the first round.)
5. Second round votes cast for Ming Campbell 49%:
6. Second round votes cast for Chris Huhne 0%:
7. Second round votes cast for Simon Hughes 51%:
My reasons for this prediction is that a number of the electorate have probably not been engaged by other polling sources and will go for the names they know, sorry Chris. Only if the turnout is less than 50% which I doubt will be the case to I think Chris will have swayed enough active members to eliminate Simon on first round.
1. Total number of votes cast 68%:
2. First preference votes cast for Ming Campbell 36%:
3. First preference votes cast for Chris Huhne 31%:
4. First preference votes cast for Simon Hughes 33%:
If no candidate scores 50%+ on the first round, the candidate with least 1st preferences will be excluded, and their 2nd preferences re-distributed accordingly.
What do you think will be the result in this final round? (Tip: put 0% next to whichever candidate you think will lose in the first round.)
5. Second round votes cast for Ming Campbell 49%:
6. Second round votes cast for Chris Huhne 0%:
7. Second round votes cast for Simon Hughes 51%:
My reasons for this prediction is that a number of the electorate have probably not been engaged by other polling sources and will go for the names they know, sorry Chris. Only if the turnout is less than 50% which I doubt will be the case to I think Chris will have swayed enough active members to eliminate Simon on first round.
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