Trump Horcrux unearthed by Northern Ireland election #AE17

Let's face it yesterday was a disaster for unionism in Northern Ireland politics. The Assembly shrank from 108 members to 80 but the Unionist members shrank in number from 56 to 40! Yes that is right 18 seats were taken away and the unionists lost 16 of them, 10 by the DUP the other 6 for the UUP.

Now last night time after time DUP representatives came on and talked about the media being the reason they were doing badly. Some even blamed it directly on the BBC while being interviewed by the BBC. Arlene Foster at her count was even hidden away in a room and refused to speak to the BBC all day. This is the so-called "leader" of Northern Ireland skulking away in a room and blaming it on one of the major television news channels. It's all sounding rather Trump-like.

The BBC were the local news that investigated the RHI scandal, they were also the same station that investigated Arlene's predecessor Peter Robinson over property speculation and his wife's affair. Yet through all of that Robinson still spoke to the BBC. The DUP were also claiming that people were still responding to their message, that it was transfer policies of other unionists that were costing unionism and that is was a nationalist surge that was doing them out of seats.

Let's look at some of those claims.

Was it what the media said. A lot of the time the BBC has reported exactly what Arlene and her team have said. They have been in debates not just for the election but in other mediums through the last 10 months. Of course there are also times they are invited unto The Nolan Show or The View or other shows and refuse to turn up to put their case. When they do turn up they talk about being progressive yet their policies by many are viewed as anything put. When they are challenged on this they become all defensive.

While they say that they lost seats because of what Mike Nesbitt said about transferring his vote to the SDLP is it not just possible that they did'y gain as many of that 10% higher turnout as the other parties because of what Arlene and her colleague more that what anyone else said? Maybe that 10% that came out to vote this time for parties that were prepared to break from the sectarian trenches. Maybe they wanted to stand up against Brexit. Maybe they wanted to stand up for equality. Maybe ther did want to send a message about the Renewable Heating Initiative or maybe it was a combination of all of these.

But yeah there are 40 Unionists, 39 Nationalists and 11 Others in the new Assembly. The DUP have lost their ability to lodge a Petition of Concern with just their own MLAs signing it.

But with all of the excuses and actions coming from the Donald Trump book How to Win Elections and Govern, maybe the DUP have been turned into a Donald Trump horcrux. There are only six more to find but I think the following is probably another of them. But the DUP horcrux has not been destroyed just yet, but it has taken damage.

I remain Lib Dem to the core

You follow a political party because you agree with its policies. You become an activist for that party because you share in its vision. You put yourself on the line standing to represent that party because you want to enthuse the core values of that party into the lives of everyone.

Thus is was that 630 fellow Liberal Democrats and I lay it all on the line yesterday in the 2015 General Election. Some like Simon Hughes and Charles Kennedy had given years of service to get those values into their constituencies, improving their constituents lives and when they could into legislation. But yesterday they like many of the rest of us were judged not so much on our values but on one decision we made collectively about five years ago.

Our manifesto this time as in 2005 and 2010 was full of wonderful stuff about how to bring about fairness to society. It also laid out how we could strengthen the economy, fund additional NHS investment etc. But that one decision and not our core values were what the people judged us on.

We are a party that believes in proportional representation. Therefore we are a party that expects that we might be called upon to form coalitions to work with others under a fair voting system. Here's the thing with 5% less of the national vote than UKIP our party shouldn't deserve to have (at time of writing) eight times as many MPs. The only reason we do is that my party was Fire Fighting putting up fire breaks around places we occupied, while UKIP were riding a wave and thought they could do everything.

Maybe we should have said more about what our values were that made us want to do things rather than saying that we weren't like one lot in one way and another lot over something different. I believe in those values and I feel that others appreciate them to.

And, here is the thing. Despite all the pain, all the heartache and all the suffering that last night caused standing at my own count, getting feedback form elsewhere and then watching it all come crashing down, I'm still a Liberal Democrat to the core.

I still see no other party that believes that no other party exists to build and safeguard a fair, free and open society in which they seek to balance the fundamental values of liberty, equality and community, in which nobody shall be enslaved by poverty, ignorance or conformity.

If there were I would stand for them, work for them and vote for them. But none of the other parties fulfil even this small extract from the constitution of the Liberal Democrats.

That is why today, as much as ever, and indeed more so that 26 years ago I know that I am the very model of modern Liberal Democrat. I know our party will come back strong again because the essence of what we believe in does bring about fairness and opportunity for everyone. It may be a few election cycles, a few years or even a few months before voters realise this. David Cameron and his unfettered Conservatives could well be the ideal recruiter of people to the Liberal Democrat's way of thinking.

Never in the history of Northern Irish politics...Part 1

...has it taken the long to elect a DUP MEP.

But that is not a matter of length of time but number of stages.

In the first 1979 elections with a quota of 143,060, Ian Paisley secured 170,688 first preference votes and was elected after stage one.

In 1984 the quota was up to 171,330 but so too was Rev Paisley's vote he secured 230,251 and was elected on first stage.

In 1989 needing just 133,703 Paisley got 160,110 first preferences and was elected along with John Hume on 136,335.

In 1994 it was Paisley again who topped the poll with 163,246 a mere 1254 ahead of Hume when again both exceeded the quota of 139,967.

In 1999 and his last election to Europe Paisley secured 192,762 over Hume's 190,731 and well beyond the quota of 169,703.

2004 saw Jim Allister then of the DUP replace Paisley as the candidate but his 175,761 surpassed the quota of 137,320 as did Bairbre de Bruín of Sinn Féin with 144,451 first preference votes.

In 2009 Diane Dodds made her first appearance as the DUP candidate the quota was 121,144 but Mrs Dodds only managed 88,346 first preference votes. She was elected on the third count without reaching the quota as the surpluses of Bairbre de Bruín and Jim Nicholson UUP would not have been enough for Alban Maguinness to over take the 115,722 she had reached after the exclusion of the Green, Alliance and TUV candidates.

This year we know it took Mrs Dodds until stage 7 and the elimination of the TUV once again to be deemed elected, this time however she had acquired the quota.

Animation of a rousing Obama speech

I have been somewhat quiet this week because the power cable to my laptop failed in the earlt hours of Monday morning. A smartphone is only good for so much.

Plus I'm not feeling great these last few days so have spent much of it in bed.

However, this just needs sharing

***Breaking*** Martin McGuinness to stand for Irish Presidency

It has literally just been confirmed from Sinn Féin that Martin McGuinness the Deputy First Minister in Northern Ireland is to go forward as their candidate for the Irish Presidency.

His name will join that of Fine Gael's Gay Mitchell, Special Olympics boss Mary Davis, buisnessman Sean Gallagher and Labour's Michael D Higgins throwing his hate into the ring. The absence of a Fianna Fáil , for long seen as the natural party of government in Ireland until the elections earlier this year saw their vote and TDs reduced considerably, is noticeable as the other main parties will be fielding candidates, including now Sinn Féin.

Just yesterday when the Fianna Fáil executive gathered to try and endorse one of the independent candidates they failed to do even that. This is despite one of the parties own senators Labhrás Ó Murchú offering to put his name forward for the challenge.

If Martin McGuinness does enter the race to be Irish President, he like Gerry Adams before him is likely to have to resign his Westminster seat of Mid Ulster to allow him to contest the election in the republic. Ironically such a move would mean that Sinn Féin will have held both the Steward of the Manor of Northstead (Adams) and it would seem Steward of the Chiltern Hundreds which is due next when McGuinness has to resign his Westminster seat.

Looking at the field I would hazzard that McGuinness has the most charisma. The question is will the people vote for them. In recent Presidential election in Ireland the people have voted not necessarily the same way they vote for the Dail Éireann, so who can tell.

Petrol Bombs and Bricks Shall Not Stop Our Democratic Shared Future

The fact that election campaigners in Northern Ireland are going door to door canvassing in something to be applauded. Indeed it is something that all to recently would have led to some candidates setting foot in certain parts of the area they were seeking to represent.The fact that twice in the past 24 hours on two separate incidents SDLP canvass teams have been attacked is a shame to those who carried out such attacks.

Not Delores Kelly's windscreen but an example

Last night a petrol bomb aimed at the car of election volunteers and today when a brick was thrown at the windscreen of Delores Kelly seeking re-election in Upper Bann. This is not how this election campaign, or how the last assembly or the next one, is going to get along. There is consensus that things now will be done through the ballot box, this anti-social and indeed anti-democracy attacks on candidates are something that nobody involved in politics should condone, we should all stand together and condemn such actions. Thankfully nobody has been seriously hurt in either incident, although people could so easily have been.

However, all is not light an consensus in Northern Ireland right now. Tom Elliot along with the leaders of all the parties attended the funeral of PSNI Constable Ronan Kerr last week (an event that united the majority of the population with only a few dissenters). However, a group of fundamentalist Orangemen have called on the UUP leader to be expelled from the Loyal Order.

People outside Northern Ireland may not know what the fuss is about. Well yesterday as I was reading the DUP council candidates profile as they came through my door the one thing that I did notice was the mention in three of the four of involvement in or with the Loyal Orders, it is shorthand to the Unionist base to vote for them they're one of you. However, as myself and few others have expressed we don't see the point of such emphasis when we are talking about a shared future. In fact the DUP recently were actually asking Catholic economic liberals to vote for them based on their right leaning economic policies rather than the left leaning of the SDLP and Sinn Féin.

So while Northern Ireland parties are talking up a game of sharing over the airwaves, through the doors there is still a little of the politics of separation coming through from some quarters. It is not what I have been used to the last 9 years in Scotland and I will taking serious consideration over how I place my preferences on May 5th.

Reviewing Malc's Challenge

WowI I've just had a look at how I predicted things in response to Malc's challenge regarding Obama's chances in the electoral college. Malc thought when I posted that I may regret painting "Colorado, Michigan, Ohio... maybe even Penn!" Blue so early in the prediction game. Boy! Back then were we both too conservative!

I didn't dream of Florida, Indiana or Nevada thinking they may just stay red. North Carolina and West Virginia would have been crazy talk, yet both went Blue.