Conservative and Unionist Party ignoring warnings

Research released today has shown the shift in opinion in Northern Ireland since the Brexit referendum. Since the vote when 56% of the people voted to remain in the EU that figure has risen to 69%.

However, the research by Queen's University also shows that 61% of the population of Northern Ireland also favour the whole of the UK staying in the Customs Union and Single Market. The population of Northern Ireland who voted to remain in the EU see that as part of the Brexit that helps keep NI economically active, viable and progressing.

While 59% of people in Scotland feel that Brexit make the break up of the UK more likely this is only beaten by the 60% of Northern Ireland who think the same thing. This is worrying as this would be based on two different scenarios in these two locations both of which voted to remain. Here in Northern Ireland while 63% believe the union will exist in 10 years time only 28% believe it will survive 50 years.

Despite this research and that the people of Northern Ireland clearly favour a Customs Union and Single Market, today Karen Bradley the Secretary of State has said emphatically that Northern Ireland will leave the Customs Union. Ireland and the UK entered the EEC on the same day and before that had trade agreements in common. Leaving is breaking a long history, even though there was a border for security reasons that was economically open. Closing that to come to some new agreement affects businesses, workers, families, health and so much more.

The people of Northern Ireland do not forget how Northern Ireland's economy struggled most under the Tories in the 80s and 90s. The same party now is taking advise from the DUP who are short sighted about how Brexit will affect Northern Ireland. The failed to win the argument here but are using the same argument to convince the Conservatives in Westminster that the people of Northern Ireland will not suffer.

Sammy Wilson may as a substitute teacher have taken me for one term of A'Level economics but since then my degree looked at the EU and the costs and benefits of being in and out at the time with the newly economically emerging Eastern European Economies. Back then I said that by size Russia, Ukraine and possibly Belarus could survive outside of the EU on an economies of scale level but the others would probably over time all look to align with the EU. The same in reverse applies to the UK today, we don't have the economy of scale in much industry to be a world player that people will give favourable terms to.

Today was a day of warning to the Tories and DUP but they are ignoring those warnings. In light of this today my personal vote on any Irish border poll will be for unification.

Carmichael's return to the Front Bench

So the first change announced in the Government reshuffle was not replacing the Tories who resigned yesterday, but did involve another change in the Whips Office. It saw Michael Moore replaced by Alistair Carmichael as Secretary of State for Scotland.

With less that a year to go before the referendum the return of Alistair's voice to the debates in Westminster and to the front bench is to be welcomed. His speeches in this Parliament have been confined to moving the writ for the Eastleigh by election as he has been restricted by his whips duties. To have him addressing Scottish issues from the dispatch box like he did in opposition for our party will strengthen the voice for better together. His law training will be able to unravel the bluster and bravado of the Nationalists as he forensically will take apart their arguments.

I'm sure Alex Salmond heart will have sunk a little when he learnt that Alistair was once again taking up the remit for Scotland. It is an area that the Northern Isles MP knows well having shadowed it from 2007-2010 (with a slight gap when he resigned to vote in favour of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty). In those years when the SNP were first in charge of the Scottish Parliament he was as combative against the SNP Government as he was the Labour Scottish Secretary, taking the fight to them on issues where they were letting down the people of Scotland. Now he is able to stand up for the Scots as the Government minister with responsibility in Westminster.

Normally there would be a wee dram to welcome the new Secretary of State for Scotland, but this one is currently going sober for the month to raise money for Macmillan Cancer Support. So may I suggest joining me with a donation there rather than a dram.

Michael Moore had done a good job since he was elevated as part of the first reshuffle less than a month into the Parliament replacing Danny Alexander as Secretary of State. For three years he has been very vocal and visible is stating the cause of Scotland being part of the UK. I'm sure he will still be very vocal in the Better Together campaign and giving his backing to Alistair in  his new role. But sometimes a change is good, especially in the run in to a important decision. This will be a change in style rather than substance, but as Alistair was the MP leading the General Election campaign for the Lib Dems in Scotland he is the man to have at the helm leading into this referendum.

I also expect his role in the Whips Office to be taken by a non-Scottish Liberal Democrat. We want all the Scottish MPs to be making contributions in the house over the next 11 months adding to the reasons that we are better together and that there are Scots in Government working for the best for fellow Scots who want to ensure that continues into the future.

Update As I was typing this is was announced that Don Foster the MP for Bath has replaced Alistair at the Whips Office.

Blogged elsewhere: Secretary of State opposes marriage equality

"Together" for the national interest?

Maybe the Northern Ireland Secretary, Owen Paterson, has spent too much time in the presence of First Minister Peter Robinson and his DUP cohorts. Or maybe he was one of those very conservative Conservatives that David Cameron could foist upon Northern Ireland without upsetting the apple cart too much. Whatever the reason Mr. Paterson has become the first cabinet minister to speak out against the cabinet commitment to equal marriage.

In a letter to a constituent in his North Shropshire seat he wrote:

 "Having considered this matter carefully, I am afraid I have come to the decision not to support gay marriage." 

Read the full post on LGBT+ Lib Dems Northern Ireland