Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics: The DUP number game

The DUP are claiming that their 9 MPs being greater than the SNP's 9 and Plaid Cymru's 3 puts them in a position to be at the leaders' debates ahead of these other regional parties.

But look at it another way the DUP will be fielding between 16-18 candidates (the number is variable as they are still talking about possible deal(s) with the UUP), this is against the SNP who will be standing 59 and Plaid who will be standing 40.

Of those 59 and 40 they will all face a Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat and a high proportion also facing a Green and UKIP candidate. Of the DUP candidates there may be a handful who face Conservatives, UKIP and Green candidates. Not one will face a Labour or Lib Dem candidate (although they may be facing a member of one of those parties under a different label).

So does the DUP on the numbers game they are playing deserve a podium at the debates? In my opinion no.

However, I would love to see Peter Robinson up there as to actually debate real issues would show up how backward the DUP actually are. I've long been of the opinion that even many third and fourth placed candidates in the rest of the UK have a greater grasp on reality, people and working for all people than the DUP. So I dreamt last night of Peter Robinson having to face questions for the other UK party leaders having to justify the conscience clause and his parties anti-LGBT and anti-abortion agenda while claiming they wanted to be British.

Of course both Sinn Féin, the SDLP and Alliance are now all saying that they too have as much right for representation with the inclusion of two parties who don't stand across all of the UK in these debates. And the DUP are saying that Naomi Long of the Alliance is represented by the Lib Dems, when she is not on my membership list and has said she is not a Liberal Democrat many times and the SDLP by Labour.

Nats to Table Dissolution Motion

Today is day 2 of Nick Clegg's 100 days to reform Parliament but the Nats, both the SNP and Plaid Cymru, are going to turn this over to a vote next Wednesday, pre-reformation of any substantive kind. Advanced Media Watch an SNP blog is saying that the Lib Dems 'have signalled that they intend to back it' and that William Hague is making promising noises from the Conservative benches. It is not however a vote of no confidence in the Government but a more substantial motion that would none the less trigger a general election if passed.

Of course we are calling for an election but Nick has also said that an immediate election without reform in place before hand may only lead to 5 years of umming and ahing until whoever wins is forced to call another one. Hoping that the public mood will die down in the interim. Yes an election has got to be called soon. But Labour, the Tories and now the Nats are all saying what they will do 'after' an election to sort of the mess, not what needs to be done before one to re-engage the trust, and make provision for mistrust, of the electorate in those they will be asked to vote for.

As it appears that we will be backing it along with Her Majesties Official opposition it remains to be seen what the rest of the Labour Party will do. Those that are wanting to stay may want to call it to show an understanding of the public mood. Those that have indicated they want to go may want to get their severance deals now to avoid more heartache. Those who have been called before the NEC may also vote for it in the hope to get hold of their pension before they may be forced to face a by election and loss their benefits. If could be a interesting job for the Labour whips to try and defend this one.

Maybe that I am postponing post election downtime with loved one(s) for some time depending on the outcome of the vote. Go to the Ballot Boxes and preparre to maybe campaign again. Boy does that make my aching feet ache even more.