World Leaders to Pull an All Nighter in Copenhagen

Recently reading my student friend's updates on Facebook or Twitter I've seen numerous of them stating that they were pulling "all-nighters" to get the end of term essays finished. The latest news from Copenhagen is that the Danes are telling the world leaders not to go anywhere just yet on what is meant to be the last day of the Climate Change Summit.

Of course all nighters at the end of a period of discussion can get a result. The Northern Irish Agreement was meant to have been concluded on Maundy Thursday, it was only as a result of an all-nighter that the Agreement was made and the far more friendly Good Friday Agreement came into being.

President Obama sat down for an hour with the Chinese leader Wen Jiabao for an hour earlier in a head to head of what many correspondents see as the two key players in getting a global agreement settled. However, BBC News has just stated that President Obama is on his way to the airport and Air Force One to head to his Christmas vacation on Hawaii. He had earlier said he had come "not to talk, but to act". Whereas the Chinese Premier said:

"To meet the climate change challenge, the international community must strengthen confidence, build consensus, make vigorous efforts and enhance co-operation."

Apparently the major stumbling block at the moment is the American $100bn a year fund to help the developing countries business to develop in a green way. The Americans are wanting assurances that this is what the money will be going towards, the Chinese who are heading up the G77 of the developing nations is urging the USA to trust them to make sure this is what happens.

There are still poles of difference between these two major players, but it may be down to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to move the issue onwards if an agreement is to be made before the world heads away from Copenhagen. President Sarkozy of France however is saying that the Chinese are the ones currently holding up the talks.

UPDATE: Within half an hour of me first hearing this the BBC are now stating that the UN Secretary General's office is denying that such an edict to world leaders has been issued. However, I'm saying why not?

What Bank Ki Moon's office is saying is that they are still hoping to reach an agreement in a few hours, without the need for overnight discussions. Although it may no longer be a Treaty but an Accord that is signed and that a deadline (2010) to sign up for a legally binding agreement may be omitted from the final text.

FURTHER UPDATE: Latest Facebook update at 16:15 from Lib Dem MEP for Scotland George Lyon does not make for good reading.

President Blair's Titanic

Well Capt. Brown had ordered the stoking of the engines and it was full steam ahead for the 'good' ship Blair to sail to the European Council Presidency.

Whoops! Mere hours after the captain gave a strong backing in a press conference, just as news that Vaclav Klaus appears ready to sign up the Czech Republic sign up to the Lisbon Treaty, it has run aground on an iceberg.

Neither Nicolas Sarkozy nor Angela Merkel are 'terribly enthusiastic' about the idea of President Blair. His main backer outside of his good captain is Silvio Berlusconi guess all those holidays in the Italian leader's villa haven't quite paid off as expected for the Blairs, as such an endorsement may as well come from Silvio Briatore or John and Edward in today's political circus.

Indeed Sarkozy, the French president, and Merkel, the German chancellor,discussed the position over dinner at the Elysée palace on Wednesday. They are understood to have agreed the post should be filled by a central right member of the EPP grouping in the EU, so there goes the hopes of any UK Tory as well.

The reason for the French lack of support was summed up by Jean-David Levitte, Sarkozy's most senior foreign affairs adviser who said:

"The UK is not in the eurozone, nor in the Schengen [free travel area in the EU] and it has a number of opt outs. These are not advantageous in this search for a candidate."

Very valid points, hard to lead Europe if you keep asking for exclusion. The list if the Tories take over would be even longer, opting out of the EU convention on Human Rights, pulling out of the cross border police agreements, even seeking to unravel the treaty that is about to be signed.

Bizarrely of course both Labour and the Tories say they want to lead Europe, but on their own terms. It is clear from the view of our EU members that is not the view that is tenable across the rest of the members. The decision of David Cameron's party to pull itself away from the mainstream centre right grouping is putting even more distance between us and the people who should be our closest allies.

Does this bode well for Labour's fall back of David Milliband for the the other new position, that of high representative for foreign policy? Personally I think Milliband is right to distance himself from seeking the role, as he is likely too to fail on similar grounds. Add in there though the view of the UK as a foreign aggressor by many in the world and this role surely is beyond the hope of any member of the ruling party in the UK just now.

So while the cabinet plays on it looks like the Brown/Blair Line's ship Titanic is sinking in the cool, cold waters of European politics.