Showing posts with label Eurozone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eurozone. Show all posts

Friday, 9 December 2011

I'm stepping outside, look after the pound for me - Cameron.

During Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday David Cameron answered the first two questions like this:

The British national interest means absolutely that we need to help resolve this crisis in the eurozone. It is freezing the British economy, just as it is freezing economies right across Europe. Resolving this crisis is about jobs, growth, business and investment right here in the UK. At the same time we must seek safeguards for Britain. That is the right thing to do.

Then to Ed Miliband's first question:

we will have the key aim of helping to resolve the eurozone crisis, and we believe that means European eurozone countries coming together and doing more things together. If they choose to do that through a treaty at 27 in which we are involved, we will insist on some safeguards for Britain—and, yes, that means making sure we are stronger and better able to do things in the UK to protect our own national interests. Obviously, the more countries in the eurozone ask for, the more we will ask for in return, but we will judge that on the basis of what matters most to Britain.

Now today the answer to the crisis the one that Cameron said was about ' jobs, growth, business and investment right here in the UK' was one that he and he alone couldn't get involved with. Apparently it was over regulations of the banks that the problem arose.

Now as a Lib Dem we praised Vince Cable on calling for more regulation of the banks well ahead of the crisis that kicked in. We shouted about the lift of regulations on banks under Labour. Indeed in our manifesto we said we would :

Work through the European Union for stricter international regulation of financial services and banking.

Because here is the thing Mr Cameron there is no such thing as a purely UK Bank bank anymore. They all have interests overseas, or are the UK Interest of an international bank. Therefore Cameron has thrown out the bath water, baby and all to spite his face. There will be discussions going on that the UK will be excluded from that will affect the UK Banking sector that we will not have any control over.

As for the aim of securing the EU, these talks in Europe were to agree to explore the possibility of working together. The details have yet to be thrashed out. Mrs Thatcher even when she disagreed about the move to a Single Market did stay in there and thrash out the details she could live with over Maastricht and other Treaties. David Cameron has put the UK so far on the outside that we're not even sure if we'll get the jobs, growth, business and investment that he's looking for. We're not even sure if our largest trading partners the rest of the EU are going to be allow such investment.

It's almost like the EU are sitting in Scotts camp on his return from the South Pole with 27 in the party as a blizzard blasts outside. But out into Hurricane Bawbag steps David Cameron with the words, "I'm stepping outside, look after the pound for me".

Thursday, 3 November 2011

Beware of Greeks playing roulette with their whole economy

The breaking news is that George Papandreou seems to have played Roulette with his nations debts but many in his own party and the rest of the government have prevented him from staking it all on a referendum. Earlier today four of his own cabinet opposed the measure and the Prime Minister will be seeing Greek President Karolos Papoulias to offer his resignation.

The crisis came to a head today after the EU withdrew its bailout offer of a rescue package unless Greece decided immediately whether they were in or out of the Eurozone. Earlier the main opposition leader Antonis Samaras of the New Democracy party called for a coalition goverment to safeguard the EU deal, which wrote off 50% of the debts owed by Greece in return for sharper austerity measures. Some of Papendreou's MPs refused to back his call for a referendum calling instead for a national government or an early election. His slim majority was only 4 in the 300 seat parliament.

So where does this leave us?

Clearly the Greek political leaders are trying to shore up their economy as best they can. Realising that the EU deal may be the best option that they can get at this point. However, the people are still angry about the need for greater austerity measures to enable them to pay back the new deal. However, it looks likely that they will leave the Euro to allow greater flexibility over their own economy to enable them to pay back their debts. But the level of austerity in Greece is likely to last for many years.

One thing that appears to have come from the past week since the Greek package was agreed is that the entire world seems to be at a point where if someone fails to take positive economic action there will be panic. The fact is that in or out of the Eurozone, whether in Europe or not, every economy is getting so entwined with each other that any nervousness or fear of default could be on the point of bringing down a lot more than simple the economy of one relatively minor country. Also if Greece were to leave the Eurozone, there is the question of the lack of mechanism for them to do so, and also the question of whether they would also have to leave the EU. In doing so this may well lead to further issues.

The fact is that when David Cameron says we're all in this together he means not just across the UK, but across Europe and further afield.

Whether a new Greek government can bring about stability quickly is the matter that world leaders at the G20  in Cannes will be watching closely. As the latest events in Greece were happening as the EU deal was being discussed in Cannes.

Note As this is a breaking news story issues may well move on while I am away from my computer this afternoon.

Friday, 12 February 2010

The Real Test for Euro Membership


When I was a student we still only had the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System. But being the great fan of Sci-fi that I was my dissertation looked to the future and a European currency, I pointed out that the real test for such unity wouldn't come in the good times but would come in the bad, then I said it would depend how Germany, France, Italy and the UK (yeah I was an optimist) reacted when times were tough and part of the zone needed help.

Well it may be almost twenty years later but such a crossroads has been arrived at. Or to be precise we've been standing at that crossroads for sometime waiting to stride off confidently but now we're about ready to head off, we're not sure what to do.

The issue of course is Greece.

The EU leaders have said they are prepared to deliver a rescue package for the Greek economy and to shore up the integrity of the Eurozone, they just haven't announced the details yet. But at the end of over a year of such support for other EU economies some nations are not happy. This morning on the news I heard mention of some in Germany being up in arms and saying enough is enough and saying they would be better returning to the Deutchsemark.

Of course there are criteria for entering the Eurozone these have to be met before admission is allowed. These are clearly laid out to EU member states that wish to enter. The issue of expulsion isn't so clear, but there is talk that some wish to remove Greece. Indeed Phoebus Athanassiou writes in a European Central Bank working paper that such a move in almost certainly illegal, there is no exit criteria only for entry.

Of course the reason for setting up the Euro was to allow competitive advantage, economic stability and smooth out the dips that any one Euro member would have against the world economy. The larger nations would benefit from the security if their prices across the zone and the ability to plan within the world. The smaller nations would have the security blanket of the more established nations, benefiting from the economy of scale to help them develop. That is all well and good when times are good, even when they are stagnated, but not when they are dipping sharply.

There is the option of voluntary withdrawal a country then could in theory devalue its currency to improve competitiveness and to set its own interest rates.But either expulsion or withdrawal would not be an easy option. Don't forget as well as Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal are also finding it tough just now.

The Options
  • Expulsion - verges on illegality, plus needs to create a new European Community minus the expelled member.
  • Voluntary withdrawal - at this stage almost impossible to withdraw from all the institutions needed to be in Eurozone without withdrawing from EU itself.
  • Withdrawal keeping Euro - Some states outside the EU currently operate the Euro so would be possible to withdraw, revalue and keep Euro at new rate.
However, as I said above the smaller nations saw the Euro as a security blanket. Any move to expel would lead to insecurity of the remainder, it could see the unravelling of the EU.

The thing is that the Eurozone countries have to be in this together, that was the agreement, that was the commitment that was made. Like a marriage it is for sickness or in health and divorce is a whole lot messier with so much involved.