Six Votes In It: Ed Miliband's Margin of Victory

Because the Labour Leadership election is not down under one member one vote just how close was the final outcome. After all1.3% is a pretty close race. But all the talk of the Unions winning it for younger brother Ed need to be looked at in light of the six people who actually cost it for David.

My friend and once upon a time blogger Mark Thompson has actually done the maths.
With just 1.3% in it David only needed a 0.65% swing so from the smallest electorate making up 33.33% of the electorate that was the MPs and MEPs. Each of their votes counted as 0.1253% overall for the entire election. Five of them comes to just 0.6265% whereas six comes to the magic 0.7518% or but another way 50.1018% of the vote enough to have edged out his younger brother.

The Unions Anoint Ed

Well in the end it really was a nail biting finish. It was down to the fourth round of the ballot that decided the result between the Milibands. In the end it came down to:

MPs 53-47 to David;
Members 54-46 to David;
Unions 60-40 to Ed.

Overall Ed 50.65% David 49.35%

Yes I was doing the maths in my head before the result for David was declared first (how much of a geek am I?) even turning and saying it. I knew before that forty nine came out of the Chair of the NEC's mouth which Miliband brother was next in line. But the split is that he lost out in two of the three colleges. The members and MPs/MEPs were not behind him, but the Unions were.

However, Nick Robinson and Laura Kuenssberg were talking over round two declarations and most of round three to tell us that David Miliband was smiling and Ed was looking tense, before Nick 'declared' the result for David. My friend Helen Duffet posted a tweet 'Ed Miliband wins title of Labour's best pokerface. Watch 'im.'

So in honour of the new Labour leader's performance before the count was declared here's this.

The Grand Old Miliband

The Grand Old Miliband
He sought ten thousand Lib Dems
He wound them up to the top of the hill
But he'll let them down again

You see there is one issue with being so blatent in stealing the disillusioned of another party as Dave Miliband wants to put it. The fact is that such people want the party that they then support to fit around them, rather that standing for what theye believe in, they are like refugees wanding in the wilderness seeing what fits them best.

What is worse is if you are trying to attract them to something that has lost its way in recent years, that many still within do not recognise as being part of them and their beliefs which many in Labour have found in recent times.

It is why I turn back to that Nick Clegg interview in the Independent yesterday. Not the 'headline grabbing' bit, but elsewhere he said:

"So this [conference] is an incredibly important opportunity for those Liberal Democrats who are in government to show people in the party that they retain the same values, instincts and ambitions – that walking through the door of power does not mean you lose your soul."

If you are coming to us because you share our values we still have thos values he does go on:

"If anything, we are doing the most difficult things now, partly because everything is so obscured by the bad, worrying news about deficit reduction. Rather than it getting worse, maybe over time – after very, very difficult decisions on public spending – the wider purpose and vocation of the Government will become more obvious.

"Both for the Lib Dems as a party and for the country, we need to be more explicit about what a radical, reforming government this is going to be. The worst thing would have been to go into government and be an insipid adornment to the establishment way of doing things."

We are going to make change but we do have this mighty cloud and a think fog left over us, because of the way Labour have left us.

David talks about leading a progressive party in opposition. Yet currently Labour are simply just in opposition. Opposing everything even progressive measures they stood on just a few short months ago. I'm glad there are still no fresh ideas from any of the Labour leadership contenders, because without the ideas there will be no long-term retention of the people you attempt to woo. Labour are

The Lib Dems are a party of ideas, ideas that come from the members as well as the leadership, something that Liberal Democrat conference has already shown and will continue to show over the next few days. Ideas which are progressive. Ideas that we would like to see come into the Government, ideas that can make a real change for the better and betterment of people.

Miliband Anti-Politics Attack is Thin Edge of the Disappearing Wedge

So David Miliband thinks in today's Guardian it is anti-political to stand up against the social injustices, the political corruption, stand up for our planet, economy and children. That is in essence what he is saying erroneously "Nick Clegg is only clear what he is against." Anyone who has encountered the Liberal Democrat manifesto and it is clear that David Miliband will know that isn't true.

There are plenty of constructive, progressive policies in there. There is also a big thrust to sort out the regressive nature of things that the Labservatives between them have managed to mess up.

• The reversal since 1997 of the top 20% paying proportionately less of their income in tax than the bottom 20% can only be sorted out with the Liberal Democrats policy of fair taxation, even my SNP opponent agrees with me on that one.
• The many inroads into our civil liberties over the last 13 years of Labour rule are going to be dealt with though a comprehensive Freedom Bill.

However, we have constructive plans for better arrangement for mothers and fathers in caring for their children in the early years. For our young people to get the training, qualifications or apprenticeships that suit them, not aiming merely to get 50% into University. There are plans to make the recovery one powered by greening our production, which also greens our planet and helps combat climate change and meet our progressive energy targets making energy production carbon neutral by 2050.

Heck if Billy Bragg the reddest of Red Wedges from my youth (and the last election I couldn't vote in 1987) is turning to the Lib Dems maybe it'll be up to David Miliband to turn out the lights on the Labour party. Billy Bragg is not someone who is swung by the superficial he is all about substance. You know I think even Bragg is now saying maybe I wanted to change the world, I was looking for a new Britiain, and I've found it now in the Lib Dems, as opposed to his 22 year old self.

Miliband claims that Labour have taken on the "forces of inertia", you know he may be right (in the first couple of years of New Labour) but inertia has not only won, but overcome and is dragging them backwards now.

US Use of Bully Boy Tactics

It's the sort of threat used by paedophilic abusers, "Don't tell or we leave you exposed," threatening worse than is already experienced. But it is just the sort of thing that the USA has apparently be doing to the UK.

That would be the country that somehow has stood unwaveringly with the US on its war on terror every step of the way. Yet apparently if the UK reveals the alleged torture that Binyam Mohammed underwent at Guantánamo Bay the US have threatened to take away their intelligence sharing which would leave the UK heavily exposed. So like a victim clinging to its abuser because somehow there is a need the UK Government is keeping mum (mom) about the US's abuses because it can't afford to live without what it gets from the relationship.

If this is true what exactly has the US got to hide? Of course the use of torture on Prisoners of War is outlawed in the Geneva Convention not that the USA seems to pay much heed to that at times. If it is true why is the UK protecting the US? Is there some sense of self preservation?

Maybe David Miliband's statement that, "We never condone or authorise the use of torture," isn't all that close to the truth. If that is the case we need to know just what the UK did know, and when they knew it? Did we know before, during or only find out after? Who knew anything and what was their reaction?

The fact that the US are trying to suppress makes it all the more important that this does get an airing. Even if that means a trip and stay in the Netherlands for a few high profile people.

If Heselband Really Wanted a Militine Moment

Overheard in a lift in Manchester was David Miliband telling an aide that he had avoided a Heseltine moment. However, mere words are not enough here is a leaked memo of some other ways to make a Heselband or is that Militine impact.

10. As a junior minister get foreign governments to agree to a entente cordiale and grand concorde indeed. But be economical with the truth while hovering over trains.

9. Set out to be a millionaire by 25, in cabinet by 35 (close we take you policy role as being thereabouts plus foreign office at 41 nice one), leader of the party by 45 and PM by 55.

8. Come up with a grand sell off scheme, council houses were Hezza's thing. So see off the Bank of England or something instead.

7. Do something to really wind up the opposition's local authorities. Hezza was empowered to circumvent local authority planning controls while at Department of Environment, lets just flood low lying Tory authorities on the East Coast and rehouse residents in run down inner cities next to "hard-working" families.

6. You need to have a big spat with the PM over something that really matter a la Westland. Maggie saved the Falklands, Hezza defended defence spending. Gordon wants to save the economy, have a blow out over banks.

5. Need a better nickname that "the boy David" after all Hezza was Tarzan. Do you have any distinguishing tattoos? Have you have more than say 30 sexual partners? We need something here David work with us. No Blakey in allusion to your early ambition to be a bus conductor doesn't do it. Needs more effort.

4. Flamboyance factor cf Hezza's mane. The photoshoot in the Times at the weekend was good. Nice image change to old dour features. Lets work on it more relaxed polo shirts, chinos, big smile. Check out which toothpaste both Barak Obama and John McCain used we may be on to a winner.

3. Need to resign from the cabinet an brew on the backbenches for a bit, but not too long, like Hezza, ready to launch a counter attack. We advise you resign in March 2010, reason something about the manifesto but you won't clarify at the time (need to see polling after the election to ascertain just what costs us the election nudge, nudge, wink, wink). Then we can brand you as the voice of change over the summer of 2010 ready to take the leaders speech at Autumn conference.

2. Need to line up some loony to take over your parliamentary seat for after you retire. One of Ken Livingston's hoard suit fit the bill.

1. Key get another senior party figure to resign first heating the fire underneath the PM like Geoffrey Howe did for Hezza's coup. Darling wouldn't have the impact as lost all respect. Jacqui Smith we've lost our file on sadly. You're at foreign office which leaves a dilemma, we suggest Jack Straw as he's probably the most respected senior figure still with any post of some clout. We'll get unto any of his people who haven't already asked about nominating you if he'd throw himself on his sword.

Mili Flight Ban

Looks like Gordon has been rearranging stones on the beach in preparation for reshuffle and following on from yesterday's calls for the Foreign Secretary to be sacked David Miliband has be ordered to cancel a trip to India.



Oh dear, it looks like the young buck has indeed been caught too much in the headlights while the boss is away. If he is being told to stay while a reshuffle is pencilled in it can only mean one thing he is moving elsewhere or out. David will be packing for his summer hols to Minorca tomorrow, surely not a boozy fortnight with the lads, not sure whether he should be packing his suitcase or boxing up the contents of his office at the FCO.

There are three possible solutions for Gordon. He can either kick Miliband out of the cabinet altogether, however as I said yesterday this makes him a martyr and a stalking horse and tougher to control. Alternatively he can demote him to a more junior office. However, young David clearly has talent to me in one of the big three jobs so young and so relatively early in his political career and may been seen as a waste of talent. Alternatively the First Lord or the Treasury may well move him up to the roll of Chancellor of the Exchequer after all he can keep tight reins and sharp eyes on him, just as Tony had done on Gordon for 10 years.

They Want Mili-Banned

Two Labour backbench MPs are calling for Gordon Brown to sack David Miliband as Foreign Secretary after yesterday's will he, won't he stance over whether he was mounting a leadership challenge. The latest new on that front is that David told Jeremy Vine on Radio two that he is "not running a leadership campaign".

However, what would occur if Gordon where to sack Miliband from his cabinet?

For a start he would be accused of double standards. How often in his 1o year wait to become Prime Minister did Gordon not say, or leak stories to further the cause for his anointing as the divine Tony's successor. Admittedly he did wait longer than the first year of Blairs leadership before doing so, young David may be showing exceeding haste in copying his mentor.

The other thing is outside the cabinet would Miliband not become a stalking horse, unrestrainable, or at least more so that at present. The fact that rebel extraordinaire Bob Marshall-Andrews is one of the two calling for his sacking is strange when you consider the predecessors. Look at the almost constant threat to Margaret Thatcher from Michael Hesletine and then John Redwood when they were outside the confines of her cabinet. You also wonder, if not for his untimely death in 2005, just what role Robin Cook would have taken in the anointing of Blair's chosen heir. I doubt he would have sat back totally, indeed I think he would have given the Labour Party a contest, maybe even have won it. One thing he would have had over Miliband would have been the experience he was lacking.

So what will Gordon do with the questionable mini-rebellion of youth? Take him aside as a caution? Take him out for a meal to discuss when he will seamlessly pass on the baton? No can't do that Granita's been shut down. Gordon can't afford to have such talk within the ranks of his cabinet, at the same time he can't allow it to be unconstrained from the backbenches.

He faces a dilemma when he does return from Suffolk, and gets confortable by retying a tie around his neck. Cause he sure hasn't carried off the casual element of smart casual on his holiday so far, possibly because he can't truly relax with the knife's grinding on the stones at Westminster.

David Not Slinging the First Stone...Yet

Well David Miliband is in full rabbit eyes in headlights mode. Following his article in this mornings Grauniad in which he talked about the future of the Labour Party without mentioning the Prime Minister in that future.

Compare this from his article.

"The odds are against us, no question. But I still believe we can win the next
election. I agree with Jack Straw etc"

With this when pressed:

"Can Gordon lead us into the next election and win? Yes. I'm absolutely
confident about that."

So has David joined the heap of mangled metal of sports cars starting before the green light is given. Or as in the vintage last Yes Minster episode are we watching everyone deny that they have ambitions for the office of Prime Minister though all the while they are sounding out their support. Especially as when pressed further as to whether we was ruling himself out of a leadership bid he merely said he wanted to discuss "arguments, not personalities" and didn't use the words yes or no.

Oh just for the record at the time of writing the Prime Minister is Gordon Brown and there are no, I repeat no, leadership challenges being mounted by any member of the cabinet. The giant of a chancellor turned PM for New Labour is not about to fall to the boy David: possibly.

I couldn't possibly comment.

Watch Out Gordon We're Coming to Get You

Gordon Brown may be taking a vacation but everyone seems out to get him just now.

First David Miliband calls on his colleagues in an article in the Grauniad to offer the electorate real change. Many in the Main Stream Media see it as the opening salvo in a leadership bid from the one many see as Brown's likely successor. He talks about the need for change, "a new phase", that the summer shouldn't be about introspection. Saying:

"The odds are against us, no question. But I still believe we can win the next
election."

Then sets out an agenda of what has been done wrong and what should be done better. Finishing off with a rallying cry of sorts:

"New Labour won three elections by offering real change, not just in policy but in the way we do politics. We must do so again. So let's stop feeling sorry for ourselves, enjoy a break, and then find the confidence to make our case afresh."

The speculation of course is just was does he imply by afresh?

Meanwhile Deputy Prime Minister, Harriet Harman, is denying claims that she too is preparing a leadership challenge. Looks like the knives may well be being looked at in the draw if not yet getting sharpened in the Labour camp.

Then you have Nick Clegg stating that there is no such thing as a safe Labour seat and redirecting Lib Dem attention and funding to focus on the 50 most vulnerable Labour seats at the nest General Election. He says:

"And at the next general election, they will lose in their heartlands to the
Liberal Democrats. A Labour vote is now a wasted vote."

It is a shift from 2005 when the party looked at the vulnerability of Tory seats such as those of David Davis and Theresa May but reflects the gains on councils and control taken in some traditionally Labour dominated areas. With all the uncertainty over what Labour's next roll of the dice may be he warns.

"You never know how quickly things will change. Gordon Brown may find the
guts to call the general election we should have had last year.

"He
may be replaced with yet another unelected Labour prime minister.

"We've
got to be ready for anything. Britain needs a break from Labour.

"Britain needs a young party with fresh ideas for today's families -
that's us. So let's make it happen."

So after having one by election taking us into the traditional slow period for politics it looks like we may well have an interesting summer season ahead of us long before the resort towns hold the party conferences in September.