Rebels with a Cause

As mentioned by Andrew Marr this morning from his tempoary base in Edinburgh from the front page of Scotland on Sunday the rebels now have a new goal in sight.

Apparently as many as 40 Labour rebels are preparing to give Tony Blair an ultimatum if things don't go well on Thursday. Their fingers are on the trigger if Labour lose 350 council seats this week and if their vote share dips below a third in certain key areas. If this happens they will seek a definite date before next summer for the Prime Minister to step aside if this is not forthcoming they will seek to force a leadership election at Labour's autumn conference. If there are 40 rebels already in the camp they would only need a further 31 to join up to acquire the 20% of the Parliamentary Labour Party required to force such a vote.

The Politics Show also ran a YouGov poll which found that 57% of the public believe that Labour is sleazy and incompetent. While we are not hearing from Pauline Prescott the SonS has an insiders view of the wife spurned by Margaret Cook. She says:

Few who have not been through this sort of misery realise the wreakage wreaked by an alpha male on the rampage. Media intervention has cut short [John Prescott's] making of hay in his autimn years, but the trauma will affect the family for years to come, as it did me and mine. Today Prescott looks a stressed and sorry figure in Downing Street; and in the case of my ex-husband [Robin], who knows how much that abrupt, self-inflicted fracture he imposed, cutting himself off from his former life and roots, cohesiveness and approval, reputation and amour proper, influenced the course of his later life?

Her Sunday essay is an interesting insight into the other part of the equation, the part that is being overlooked, not the lothario or his fancy woman but of the loyal wife that is spurned.

How Low Can They Go?

I still remember one lecture from the early days of the John Major government when one of my lecturers said 'suppose Government policy is this...but going on current form it might be when we leave this room.' However, similar things are now happening to Labour. Only this time it is suppose this Governemnt minister did this, I came back from an afternoon canvassing in Linlithgow to find all sorts of things going on.

Headline grapping it may be but 85 pence worth of cannabis resin found in John Reid's guest room, which may have been there for years, fortunately for Tony Blair is not going to turn into a resignation issue. John Reid was one of the various Northern Irish Secretarys during my time in the civil service there.

However, more revelations about John Prescott are about to hit tomorrows papers. His former mistress Tracey Temple has been paid over £100,000 to reveal more details of the affair.

Meanwhile the race for which Minister may go first has not been slack on the Charles Clarke front either. The news from here in Scotland that one of the 79 most dangerous of the 1023 foreigners released without being considered for deportation was last known to be in the Grampian region. First Minister Jack McConnell has already gone against Westminster Labour's line defending Charles Clarke by expression frustration and anger about being kept out of the loop on this situation. With tensions already high between Holyrood and Westminster this may be a positioning move by the Scottish Labour leader.

This month's and week's revelations may be too late for Labour in England facing next weeks elections but the Scots may be trying to distance themselves from the failures down South in an attempt to shore up their support ahead of next year's Scottish elections. If the result of the Moray by-election is replicated next may it would be a disastor for McConnell. So maybe the confidence Labour tried to show on Thursday night isn't fully being shared behind the scenes.

However, Labour does appear to be starting to splinter just like the Tories did under John Major all those years ago. The response I was getting from the few Labour supporters I've found in Linlithgow would also seem to bear this out. The New Labour message is stagnating, alienating their supporters and they are looking for an alternative something that the Liberal Democrats are proving to be all across the country.

The Charles Clarke Five

Well it looks like the press will be having a wild weekend after the revelation that five of the foreign prisioners released without being considered for deportation went on to reoffend with more serious crimes.

This game of catch us if you can cannot be allowed to go on Charles Clarke we are not satisfied with you and the way you have handled this debacle. You try too hard to appear to have our national security at your heart trying to control the uncontrollable in the war that is being waged with terror at home. However, the things your department actually has a control over has led to this situtation.

Apparently rumours earlier today were that the Home Secretary said if he found out that any of the released men in question had gone on to reoffend it would make his position untenable. So for Mr Clarke mabe it is time to dust down the letter of resignation with Tony Blair has already refused and do the honourable thing. If the Home Secretary's position there is no need for him to look before he leaps. He has already seen what the future might have in stall. So why has he yet to tender his resignation?

Moray Analysis

OK Moray as I heard so many times last night, especially from the Tory and Labour spokesmen (sadly there was not a single woman on the entire programme apart from the two candidates of that gender), this is an SNP heartland seat. Welcome to Ewing country.


Turnout for a by-election was surpassingly on a par with the 2003 turnout for the same seat which is extraordinary especially as this is the 4th year in a row that the voters of Moray have had to go to the polls around this time. (Scottish General, European, Westminster General, Scottish by-Election). So maybe that showed that the parties did manage to engage the electorate despite what the Northern Scot thinks about a hard fought by-election campaign. The people of Moray can be rightly proud that they were engaged in democracy.

Alex Salmond was cooing over the fact that this was the first time that he can remember a party defending a by-election in Scotland actually increasing their share of the vote and majority. Well done to the SNP for gaining 4% more from an already good showing of 42% in 2003. As Alex kept reminding us the SNP are second to Labour in 36 of their 40 Scottish constituencies and in the other 4 it is the Liberal Democrats. But for each constituency gained the SNP are in danger of losing a list seat so caution to the wind about how much of this will result in the a massive surge next year.

The Tories are still stalling. On slightly smaller turnout their vote in actual Xs rose by 196. And this is the sort of seat where the Tories should be looking for revival if they are to make any inroads next year. It is one of the few seats that they actually came second in 2003. It was traditionally Conservative before the 20-year reign of Margaret Ewing but the Cameron effect was non-existent here and their campaigning tactics shows levels of ineptitude. No gain is not a good result for the Scottish Tories.

The Lib Dems failed to overhaul the Tories into second but with another gain of 7% in the vote shows the continuing trend over the past few years. Again it was a bigger increase than the SNP and shows exactly what the SNP funded poll recently showed that over half the electorate want to see the Liberal Democrats involved in government again after May 2007. People are intelligent enough to spilt the claims from The SNP and Tories that we stand for the same things as Labour. They know the differences in Scotland are down to Liberal Democrats and they want to see more of what we have to offer.

Labour down 9%. Their second worse result in any election in Scotland since 1945. Crisis might be too soft a word for it. After Dunfermline the lost over half their vote here and it is going roughly one third to the SNP two thirds to the Liberal Democrats in a seat where they have no impact whatsoever. Might have been worse if the SSP had stood.

Good night for the SNP you have to hold but they also increase.

Good night for the Liberal Democrats they move onwards and upwards and have the biggest increase in vote.

Bad night for the Tories no movement may be a sign of continued flat-lining.

Disastrous night for Labour to add to their other woes this week their vote was halved, virtually imploding and they continue to be complacent about their predicament.

Moray Result

45.7% Turnout

Mev Brown NHSFirst 493 1.8% +1.8%

Linda Gorn LIB DEM 5310 19.4% +7%

Sandy Keith LAB 2696 9.8% -9

Richard Lochhead SNP 12653 46.1% +4

Mary Scanlon tory 6368 22.8% n/c

Tory Attempts to Redefine Honesty

The Deputy Leader of the Scottish Conservative Party Murdo Fraser has just attempted to describe Mary Scanlon's Moray campaign as being positive and honest. So positive that she was not willing to come out as a Tory, so honest that she used false endorsements and attempted to appear as Winnie Ewing's adopted daughter.

I want to know what dictionary Annabelle Goldie is handing out to her colleagues?

Early Reports From Moray

Brain Taylor has just said on Newsnight Scotland that turnout looks to be about 40%, only just down on Scottish Parliament election turnouts. With Elgin boxes in it is looking like Lib Dems and Tories are tight for 2nd somewhere in mid 20% but Labour are most definitely bringing up the rear.

Brian said a lot of people were interested in the election if not enthused necessarily.