Thursday, 27 October 2011

Big Eck's SNP bigs up a Facebook unscientific poll - Statistics Not Partisanship

I just saw this headline on the SNP website

For a start we all know the 'accuracy' of Faebook polling, indeed I was surprised that I hadn't picked up on it before now. It turns out it is one of those questions that get asked on facebook from time to time

Even the SNP report claims that 45% of such a poll is a majority with 42% failing. Now that places the result within any statistical margin of error. But not a clearance of 50% within a margin of error, especially as a Facebook poll cannot be weighted to take out any irregularities or non-representation of the sample group.

When I checked the figures for first preference as this is not a two question option as Caron has been blogging about, were:

Yes to full independence for Scotland 7447 44.3% of decided 46.4%
Yes to devolution max 1356 8.1% 8.4%
No 7239 43.1% 45.1%
Undecided 761 4.5%

Hardly a majority by any measure and too close to call by most I say. Obviously the SNP don't stand for Statistics Not Partisanship.

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